Transcript Middle Fork Project

Adding an Analytic Process
to CABY Goals, Objectives,
Strategies, and Actions
David Yates and David Purkey
CABY Planning Meeting
Sept 6 2006
Recall why we are here and
what we will need from you
• Provide modeling support for the CABY
• WEAP- A framework for water resource and
aquatic ecosystem evaluation that can include
climate change
• Need to know how to prioritize our efforts to
address your questions
• Acquisition of data (times series of inflows,
reservoir releases/levels, operational logic, service
area, info on PG&E system)
Proposed timeline
Sep
Strategies to Analyze
Data and Sources
WEAP-CABY Disaggregation
WEAP-CABY Infrastructure
Calibration and Results
Summarize and Recommend
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Integrated Water
Resource Management
• Integrated watershed hydrology and water planning
model
• GIS-based, graphical drag & drop interface.
• Physical simulation of water demands and supplies.
• Additional simulation modeling: user-created
variables and modeling equations.
• Scenario management capabilities.
• Seamless watershed hydrology, water quality and
financial modules
• Developed by the SEI-US
What we have done so far.
WEAP Relevancy to CABY Goals,
Objectives, and Strategies
• Water Supply Working Group
• Water Quality Working Group
• Environmental and Habitat Protection
Model cannot directly satisfy stated goals and
objectives
Can assess potential effectiveness of individual
strategies and actions
Can identify potential synergies or tradeoffs between
strategies and actions
An Analytical Engine to
evaluate GOSAs
A SF American,
EID Example
GOSA- Goals
 Achieve sustainable surface and ground
water supplies.
 Provide multiple benefits from management
of water resources, diversions and
infrastructure.
GOSA- Objectives
1. Improve storage capacity.
7. Manage recreation to minimize impacts to
watershed resources.
11. Manage water infrastructure to optimize
in-stream temperatures.
12. Investigate effects of drought and
climate change and need for water
management strategies.
GOSA- Strategies and Actions
Monitoring
• Conduct research and modeling to
describe and understand watershed
dynamics and promote integrated and
sustainable water management practices.
• Monitor temperature and water quality
impacts of flow releases on native
fisheries.
GOSA- Strategies and Actions
Land Use Coordination
• Explore reservoir management for
reservoir and downstream water
temperature improvements.
• Develop and implement strategies for
river and infrastructure management
that provide environmental and
recreational benefits, especially in
critically dry years.
GOSA- Strategies and Actions
Water Supply Reliability
• Assess and develop new storage
opportunities to meet long-term water
needs.
• Develop a regional drought plan.
• Perform water availability and demand
analysis (need to define reliability).
GOSA- Strategies and Actions
Environmental Restoration and
Preservation
• Design and implement strategies that benefit
native fish and aquatic biota populations.
Climate Change
• Develop a CABY-wide adaptive management
plan.
• Update drought management plans to
incorporate climate change scenarios.
A (contrived) EID GOSA
Strategies & Action
• Create adaptable IFR’s throughout Project 184 to maintain
“healthy” flows
• Create “Pulse” flows requirements below Reservoirs to
mimic spring peak flows
• Increase forebay storage and EID canal capacity to increase
safe yield from hydropower facility
• A Critical EID Question: “Will we be able to meet our
IFR’s and still divert enough water to meet demands and
generate hydro revenue”?
Qualitative
• Reservoir Mngmt
to improve
downstream water
temperature
• Infrastructure
Mngmt to provide
Rec and ecosystem
benefits
• Availability and
Demand Analsysis
Quantitative
Qualitative
• Reservoir Mngmt
to improve
downstream water
temperature
• Infrastructure
Mngmt to provide
Rec and ecosystem
benefits
• Availability and
Demand Analsysis
Quantitative
EID’s Project 184
• Condition 31:
– Detailed Instream
flow requirements
by season and water
year
• Condition 52:
– Detailed lake level
targets and release
rules
The SF American in WEAP
Watershed represented as a set of
sub-catchments
19 Catchments
7 Rivers
(1)
6 Reservoirs
2
9 Instream flow requirements
• EID Demands and Infrastructure
• Operating Logic
Model Building
Example: Minimum IFRs below reservoir
-
Legal description of instream flow requirements based on
time of year and water year type (a report)
Caples Creek Below Caples Lake Dam
Month
OCT
NOV
DEC
JAN
FEB
MAR
APR
MAY
JUNE
JULY
AUG
SEPT
Minimum Streamflow by Water Year (cfs)
CD
DRY
BN
AN
WET
5
5
5
5
5
5
6 or NF 8 or NF 10 or NF 10 or NF
5
7 or NF 10 or NF 10 or NF 10 or NF
5
7 or NF 10 or NF 15 or NF 15 or NF
5
7 or NF 10 or NF 15 or NF 15 or NF
5
10 or NF 15 or NF 20 or NF 20 or NF
10
12 or NF 18 or NF 25 or NF 25 or NF
14
27 or NF 40 or NF 55 or NF 55 or NF
14
28 or NF 42 or NF 55 or NF 55 or NF
12
25 or NF 35 or NF 50 or NF 50 or NF
5
5
6 or NF
8 or NF
8 or NF
5
5
5
5
5
- Pulse Flow: 5-day pulse corresponds to peak streamflow
1st, build a model
of the water year
type
Then use the expression editor to
describe and view those rules
Below Reservoir monthly IFR
Spring Pulse IFR
Critical Decision Point
in the EID System
Current IFR ~ 50 CFS year-round
Future IFR – Dependent upon both
time-of-year and water-year-type
South Fork American River Below Kyburz Diversion
Month
2
OCT
NOV
DEC
JAN
FEB
MAR
APR
MAY
JUNE
JULY
AUG
SEPT
Minimum Streamflow by Water Year (cfs)
CD
DRY
BN
AN
WET
15
15
40
50
50
15
18
40
50
50
15
25
40
50
50
15
25
40
50
50
20
30
40
50
75
30
60
110
110
110
60
120
180
180
180
60
120
180
240
240
60
120
180
240
240
40
85
125
160
160
18
18
65
65
65
15
15
50
50
50
• EID diversion for hydropower and
water supply,
WEAP Simulations are Built
Around “Scenarios”
Calibration Results
Weekly Avg. (’92-02)
Current and Future Environmental
IFR’s reflected over ’82 to ‘92
A Simple Climate “Change” Experiment
+Δ 2Cº Incrementally added
to the entire temperature
record for all 19 subcatchments
Weekly Avg. streamflow below
the EID Diversion
Avg. Total Reservoir Storage
Percent Avg. Flow Requirement Coverage
Water Temperatures
Water Temperatures Relative to Current
Revisit: What we will need from you
• Need to know how to prioritize our
efforts to address your questions
• Acquisition of data (times series of
inflows, reservoir releases/levels,
operational logic, service area, info on
PG&E system)