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Future CAP for Scotland: Challenges for post 2013 Climate Change Graham Kerr Group Manager, SAC Consulting 1 Scope of Presentation • • • • • • Climate Change effects and impacts Agricultural emissions Scottish mitigation and adaptation Future CAP: Scottish debate so far Future CAP: European debate so far Future CAP for Scotland to address climate change challenges post 2013 2 Global temperature rise:+2°C + 2 - 6°C + 1 - 2°C + 1 - 3°C + 1 - 3°C Source: Met Office 3 Global temperature rise:+4°C + 8 - 16 °C + 5 - 7 °C + 3 - 8 °C + 4 - 8 °C Source: Met Office Change in Farming: Production Source: Cline 2007, http://maps.grid.no.go/graphic/projected-agriculture-in-2080-due-to-climate-change Change in farming : Rainfall Changes in mean precipitation to 2080, 50% probability estimate Winter Summer Source: UKCP09 Change in Farming: Temperature Source: UKCP09 Emissions from Agriculture MtCO2e Source: Defra 2007 8 Emissions from Agriculture Source: NAEI 2010 9 Emissions from Agriculture Greenhouse Gas 60 MtCO2e 50 40 30 Nitrous Oxide 20 Carbon dioxide Methane 10 0 2008 Agriculture contributes a disproportionate amount of high impact GHG Arable = 20% of global N2O, Livestock = 37% of global CH4 and 65% of N2O Agricultures share of non CO2 emissions is 47% Source: NAEI 2010 10 Mitigation: Abatement Cost Curves Width = abatement potential Height = cost effectiveness 11 Mitigation: Abatement Cost Curves Expensive options, small emission savings Financial savings Cheap option, big emission savings 12 Farming for a Better Climate • Using energy and fuels efficiently • Developing renewable energy • Locking carbon into the soil and vegetation • Optimising the application of fertilisers and manures • Optimising livestock management and storage of waste www.farmingforabetterclimate.org 13 Climate Change Focus Farms 14 Current Policy Initiatives • Climate Change Adaptation • Scottish Forestry Strategy • Scottish Land Use Strategy • Agriculture and Climate Change Stakeholder Group • Climate Change Research • PLANET Scotland • Scottish Greenhouse Gas Tool Project • SRDP – Grants and support – Skills Development Funds 15 Pack Report: Environment Climate Change – the context 1. Freedom and flexibility 2. Sustainable food production with environmental benefits 3. Capital Grants 4. Wider uptake of environmental schemes 5. LEADER More stringent GAEC standards ruled out 16 European Perspective • The aim of this Reform is also to improve the overall environmental performance of the CAP (Dacian Ciolos, January 2011) • Objective 2: Sustainable management of natural resources and climate action – Enhanced provision of public goods – Green growth through innovation – Pursue climate change mitigation and adaptation actions to allow response to climate change 17 European Policy Options Direct Payments Option 1 Introduce equity but leave mechanism as is Market Measures Rural Development Risk management and streamline/simplify market instruments Maintain Health Check orientation – climate change, water, biodiversity, renewables, innovation Option 2 Introduce more equity in distribution Improve and simplify existing market instruments Adjust and complement existing instruments – environment, climate change, and/or restructuring and innovation Option 3 Phase out and replace with limited payments for environmental public goods Abolish all market measures (with crisis clause) Measures focussed on climate change and environmental aspects 18 Policy Options • Voluntary agreements • Information Provision • Grants, subsidies, charges, levies and taxes – Mix of incentives and penalties – Links subsidies and incentives to environmental objectives – Carbon tax • Cap and trade – Price emissions and incentives to find efficient ways to lower emissions • Direct Regulation – Emissions standards or limits restricting/requiring certain farming practice 19 Options? Voluntary Initiatives Market Forces Behavioural Change Compulsion Regulation Cross Compliance 20 21