Transcript Energy security final I

Energy security
What does it mean?
4th July 2011
Petra Kuchynkova
Energy security
• Different definitions
5 Ss: supply (having resources, such as fossil
fuels, alternative energy and renewable energy);
sufficiency (adequate quantity of fuel and
services from these sources); surety (having
access to them); survivability (resilient and
durable sources of energy in the face of
disruption or damage); sustainability (reducing
waste and limiting damage to the environment)
4 „A“s: availability, accessibility, affordability,
acceptability
Energy security - definitons
European Commission: „Uninterrupted physical availability
of energy products on the market at an affordable price
for all consumers.“
International Energy Agency: „Adequate, affordable and
reliable access to energy fuels and services, it includes
availability of resources, decreasing dependence on
imports, decreasing pressures on the environment,
competition and market efficiency, reliance on
indigenous resources that are environmentally clean,
and energy services that are affordable and equitably
shared
World Bank: „Access to secure supplies of fuel, a
competitive market that distributes those fuels, stability
of resource flows and transit points, and efficiency of end
use
D.Yergin: „Reliable and affordable access to energy
supplies, diversification, integration into energy markets,
and the provision of information
Energy security - definiton
Usually 3 components are included:
• Reliability
• Affordability
• Environmental friendliness
Different perspectives of the consumer,
supplier and transit country
Energy security
• Perspective of the consumer
How to achieve energy security?
• Diversity of energy resources
• Diversity of suppliers
• Storage of energy and strategic petroleum
reserves
• Redundant energy infrastructure
• Flexibility to shift fuels
Energy security
• Producers and resource exporters
Economic characteristics – danger of „Dutch
Disease“?
Political regimes – especially major oil exporters
display a strong common tendency to be
governed by non-democratic regimes („rentier
effect“, „repression effect“, „modernization
effect“)
Stability of regimes
Middle East X states of former Soviet Union
Energy security
• Producers´perspective
Energy and foreign policy
Resource nationalism
Possibility to use oil or gas „weapons“?
• Different characteristics of oil and gas markets
and trade
• Gas – dependence or interdependece between
the exporter and the consumer?
Energy weapon or commercial considerations?
Energy security – oil and gas
• Role of transit states
Could they use „energy weapon“?
Direct linkages (e.g. Kazakhstan-China
pipeline) X big international projects
(Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan, Nabucco?)
Landlocked states-producers: rise of the
importance of that phenomenon after
USSR disintegration
Role of transit states: Georgia, Turkey
Energy resources – conflict
potential
• Energy – potential both for interstate conflict and
cooperation
Border-delimitation conflicts
Border hotspots: Iran-Qatar (South Pars field);
Spratly Islands in the South China Sea (China X
Vietnam); East China Sea (China X Japan)
Peace potential of pipelines?
Potential conflict areas?
• Arctic Circle
• Caspian Sea
Energy security – vulnerability of
transport routes
• Vulnerable energy transport chokepoints
Strait of Hormuz
Strait of Malacca
Bosporus Strait
• Terrorism and vulnerability of energy
infrastructure
Energy security - Nuclear energy
• Rising popularity during periods of rising prices
of oil (after 1970´s oil crisis etc.) X Three Mile
Island, Chernobyl, Fukushima
• Electricity production (cca 16 % of world
production) X Cannot replace oil in transport
(potentially production of hydrogen)
• Low emissions of climate-altering gases
• Advocates and opponents among the EU
member states
X
• Proliferation of nuclear weapons (commercial
fuel-making facility = latent nuclear bomb
factory?; opportunities for terrorists)
Nuclear energy
• Factors of
Price (more expensive than other
conventional sources of electricity
Safety and environmental concerns
(difficulties in disposing of nuclear waste)
Weapons proliferation concerns (Iran – UN
Security Council sanctions)
Nuclear reactors as objects of terrorist
attacks
Energy security and climate
changes
• World´s continuing dependece on fossil fuels
• Climate change no longer considered only an
issue relating to quality of life and the
environment, but also directly affecting human
and global security (2007 UN Security Council –
climate change as an international security
threat)
• Energy consumption patterns and policies have
become international security issue
• ¾ of of world´s CO2 emissions produced by
burning fossil fuels (rest – deforestation etc.), oil,
coal X natural gas
• Events like Hurricane Katrina in the USA
Energy and climate changes
• 1992 – UN Framework Convention on Climate Change
(Earth Summit) in Rio – universal membership X no
concrete government commitments for limiting emissions
• 1997 Kyoto Protocol – 38 industrialized nations agreed
to cut emissions of 6 greenhouse gases to an average of
5.2% below 1990 levels by 2008-12 X only partially
applies to economies in transition and developing
countries (China, India) are not obliged
• 2007 – China overtook USA in greenhouse gases
emissions
System of emissions trading –using market mechanisms to
reduce greenhouse gas emissions (inspiration with U.S.
emissions-trading program for SO2
2005 – EU emissions-trading system x effectivity in
reducing emissions in EU
Kyoto – only a symbol for the public? Lack od effective
legal and enforcement framework
Energy and climate changes
• Post-Kyoto
2007 – Bali – road map document adopted –
framework for the negociations about the
new treaty X no fundamentaly new
framework or binding emissions reductions
Unanimous endorsement (incl. USA, EU,
China, India)
X failure of Copenhagen conference in 2009
(attempt to adopt framework replacing
Kyoto)
Energy and climate changes
The future – rather the consensus of top emitters than wide
encompassing agreement?
Biofules? (Danger of deforestation)
„Climate change policy requires current populations to
make material sacrifices to avert danger to future
generations“ (Brenda Shaffer)
Ethical problem of emissions-trade mechanisms
Responsibility of developing countries, access to new
technologies
Addressing climate changes create a significant challenge
to the sovereignty of the state in international system –
state security can become dependent on the actions of
other states; demands to radically change organization
of states´economies and lifestyles
Actors of energy security in Eurasia
- Russia
•
•
•
•
World´s largest natural gas reserves
Second-largest coal reserves
Eighth-largest proven oil reserves
Major producer of nuclear energy (export of
technologies, reactors, fuel, waste processing and
storage)
• Revenues from energy export are largest source of
foreign earnings
• More diversified economy than most of the world´s major
energy producers (Persian Gulf states)
• 20 – 25 % of Russia´s GDP from oil and gas, revenues
from this sector – cca 37% of state budget (before
financial crisis)
Russia – geopolitical dimension of
energy security
• Close to two major energy markets (EU, China)
• At the same time in a sense a landlocked state – most of
the ports are not operational for the whole year for
weather conditions (Novorossiysk on Black Sea +
Bosporus Strait)
• Important feature of foreign energy policy: to reduce
dependency on exports through transit states
• Energy Policy Strategy until 2020 (from 2003) – Russia
sees energy resources as a strategic resource for
economic development and as a geopolitical tool
Russia´s export infrastructure must be sufficiently
diversified to allow exports to all directions
X Limited sea access for oil export and relying on gas
pipelines
„Dependece“ on transit states
Europe
• Role of energy in the process of European
integration
• Energy resources
1% of world´s proven oil reserves
2% of world´s proven natural gas reserves
4% of the world´s proven coal reserves
By 2020 2/3 of European energy consumption is
expected to be imported X EU is the 2nd largest
consumer of energy in the world
EU
• TPEC
42% oil
24% natural gas
14% nuclear energy
13% coal
6% renewables
Portion of natural gas in
TPEC rose rapidly
over last 3 decades
• Electricity mix
31% nuclear
30% coal
20% natural gas
4% oil
Member states split on
the issue of nuclear
energy
Future challenges
• Rising role of China as a world economy
and energy consumer
• Changes in the world gas market
GECF
Shale gas extraction
Influence of LNG and spot market on gas
prices and long-term contracts
Sources
• Sovacool (2011): The Routledge
Handbook of Energy Security. Routledge.
• Shaffer, B. (2009): Energy Politics.
University of Pennsylvania Press