Transcript Institut für Küstenforschung

IMPACT OF POSSIBLE FUTURE
CLIMATE ON COASTAL WINDS,
STORM SURGES AND WAVE
CONDITIONS IN THE NORTH SEA
Hans VON STORCH, Arnt PFIZENMAYER,
Ralf WEISSE, Katja WOTH,
Institute for Coastal Research,
GKSS Research Center, Geesthacht, Germany
IUGG Sapporo, 7 July 2003, MC08, FUTURE CHANGES IN GLOBAL AND REGIONAL CLIMATE
Series of EU projects
• WASA (1995-97)
• STOWASUS (1998-2001)
• PRUDENCE (2001-2003)
WASA results: 5 years of T106 „2 x CO2“ time slice experiment
North Sea wind: increase of up to 0.5 m/s (10%ile)
IfK
WASA, 1998.
STOWASUS: Ein ähnliches
Szenario
Institut für Küstenforschung
WASA: Mögliche Änderung der
Windgeschwindigkeit der größten
Stürme bei CO2 Verdopplung
Mean water level: +10 cm
Storm related sea level: + 5 cm
Kauker and Langenberg, 2001
WASA results: 5 years of T106 „2 x CO2“ time slice experiment
IfK
Langenberg et al., 1999
Institut für Küstenforschung
WASA results: 5 years of T106 „2 x CO2“ time slice experiment
Langenberg et al., 1999
WASA results: 5 years of T106 „2 x CO2“ time slice experiment
WASA results: 5 years of T106 „2 x CO2“ time slice experiment
Zukünftige Szenarien
North Sea waveheight: increase of up to 0.5 m (10%ile)
IfK
Günther et a., 1998
CDV-2075: Mögliche Änderung
des Überspülens von Deichen
bei CO2 Zunahme
Institut für Küstenforschung
WASA: Mögliche Änderung der
Höhen der größten Wellen bei
CO2 Verdopplung
STOWASUS results: 30 years of T106 „2 x CO2“ time slice experiment
Andersen et al., 2001
North Sea wind: increase of up to 2 m/s (0.1%ile)
North Sea elevation: increase of up
to 40 cm (estimated 50 yr return
values)
North Sea elevation:
increase of up to 20
cm (estimated 50 yr
return values)
Flather and Wiliams, 2000
RIKZ
Kaas et al., 2001
STOWASUS results: 30 years of T106 „2 x CO2“ time slice experiment
STOWASUS results: 30 years of T106 „2 x CO2“ time slice experiment
Kaas et al., 2001
North Sea waveheight: increase of up to 0.5 m (0.1%ile)
IfK
Ralf Weisse, 2003
Institut für Küstenforschung
Rossby Center RCAO simulation
PRUDENCE results: RCM downscaling of HADCM3 A2 scenario, 2070-2100
IfK
Katja Woth, 2003
Institut für Küstenforschung
Rossby Center RCAO simulation
PRUDENCE results: RCM downscaling of HADCM3 A2 scenario, 2070-2100
Conclusions
• Over the years, several projections for
the changing storm and storm impact
statistics in the North Sea area, related
to anthropogenic arming, have been
constructed.
• These projects WASA, STOWASUS and
PRUDENCE have been or are funded by
the European Commission.
Conclusions
The scenarios indicate uniformly for the
North Sea:
• A slight increase of higher wind
percentiles of up to 0.5-2 m/s.
• A slight increase of storm surge levels,
of up to 20-40 cm.
• A slight increase in significant wave
height of up to 0.5 m.
PRUDENCE regional scenarios
Dynamically downscaled from HADAM3H
Climate change Temperature Winter
Climate change Precipitation Winter
Ole Bøssing Christensen, 2003