Transcript 2006 - UBC - University of British Columbia

Radial growth in Pinus contorta relative to changing climate patterns in British Columbia:
Genetic response to annual climate variations, 1973-2005
1
Curtis-McLane ,
1
Aitken
Sierra
Sally
1. Department of Forest Sciences, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC V6T1Z1; [email protected]
The unprecedented rate of climate change that occurred during the
twentieth century is projected to continue throughout and beyond the
fossil fuel era, provoking concerns regarding how plant species are
and will continue to respond to new climatic conditions1. Studies
regarding how trees have responded to historic changes in
temperature and precipitation are particularly critical for predicting
how species may migrate and adapt under future climate change
scenarios.
Methods
Expected results
Field sites
Climate variable radial growth correlations
• Lodgepole pine common gardens across the
species range in BC and the southern Yukon
This study will evaluate ring width indices for Pinus contorta spp.
latifolia (lodgepole pine) throughout its range in British Columbia in
order to examine correlations between growth and climate trends over
the last three decades. Sampling will take place in 35 year-old
provenance trials, allowing for genetic comparisons of growth
responses for six populations planted across an environmental
gradient over time2.
Objectives
1. Assess genotype-environment interactions in lodgepole pine
populations planted across an environmental gradient by
examining correlations between radial growth and climate variables
over the last 30 years;
2. Assess the potential for expansion/contraction of the lodgepole
pine species range based on observed deviations of growth from
normalized radial increments.
Climate-genotype growth interactions
Potential field sites: Selected to cover as wide a
climatic and latitudinal range as possible. Mapped
by mean annual temperature (-18 to 12° C).
Sampling methodology
• take radius cores at breast height:
- 12 trees per provenance
- 7 provenances per trial site (5
standard, 1 standard B+, 1 local)
- 15 trial sites
TOTAL: 1,260 tree cores
Analyses
Manning: 49 N
Albreda: 52 N
Champion: 49N
Takhini: 60 N
Lodgepole pine in a common garden: population growth differences
References
1.Davis, M.B. and Shaw, R.G. (2001) Science 292: 673-679
2. Rehfeldt, G.E. et al. (1999) Ecol. Monogr. 69: 375-407
3. Stokes, M.A. and Smiley, T.L. (1968) U. Chicago Press
• Positive correlation with precipitation of the current and
previous year;
• Positive correlation with spring and summer
temperature except when threshold temperatures
exceeded;
• Negative correlation with summer heat:moisture index
when threshold index exceeded.
• mount, sand and crossdate cores3
• perform analyses comparing:
1. annual growth to climate variables;
2. within and between-population growth
variation relative to climate and
location;
3. growth rates at and in populations
from the species range margins.
Acknowledgments
This project was funded by the BC Forestry Investment
Account through the Forest Genetics Council of BC.
• Greater absolute radial growth in warmer climates than
colder climates for all populations at all sites;
• Annual radial growth increasing temporally for all
populations at all sites;
• Population with climate index most similar to trial site
will have greatest percent increase in radial growth
over time;
• Greater variation in annual radial growth increment in
populations from species range margins, regardless of
where planted.
Mean stem area increment (cm2)
Introduction
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Site
Genetic growth correlations: Hypothetical
results for five fictitious populations (A - E)
reciprocally planted in five fictitious sites (1 –
5) across a north-south climatic gradient
(see inset map). Arrows represent expected
growth trends over recent decades: pink
indicates populations expected to have the
greatest percent increase in radial growth;
green indicates populations expected to
have the most variation in growth.
1: ABCDE
2: ABCDE
3: ABCDE
4: ABCDE
5: ABCDE