Transcript Title in Arial bold Subhead in Arial

Energy and
Climate Change
Johnny Chan
Guy Carpenter Asia-Pacific Climate Impact Centre
School of Energy and Environment
City University of Hong Kong
Outline
 Science of climate change
 Energy demand and supply
 Mitigation of climate change
 Estimating the effect of climate change
 Summary
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Temporal variations in global temperature
2
Temporal variations in CO2, CH4, N2O
CO2
CH4
N 2O
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Components that cause heating/cooling of the atmosphere
cooling
heating
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Temporal variations in global temperature
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Temporal variations in global temperature
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Temporal variations in global temperature
漢
三
南北朝
國 晉
元
清
宋
唐
五
代
明
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Temporal variations in global temperature
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Temporal variations in global temperature
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Temporal variations in global temperature
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Temporal variations in global temperature and CO2
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Milankovich cycles – variations of the orbital parameters
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Milankovich cycles and glaciation
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World energy demand
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World energy supply
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Stabilisation wedges
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Abatement cost curve
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Temperature projection for the 21st century
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Temperature projection for the 21st century
B1
A1B
A2
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Precipitation projection for the 21st century
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Statistical downscaling
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Statistical downscaling
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Statistical downscaling – Hong Kong temperature
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Statistical downscaling – Hong Kong Rainfall
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Dynamical downscaling
Global Scale, ~ 200 km
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Dynamical downscaling
Continental Scale
~ 50 km
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Dynamical downscaling
Regional Scale
~ 5-20 km
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Dynamical downscaling
Local Scale
~ 1-3 km
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Dynamical downscaling
 Global Scale, ~ 200 km
Forcings
greenhouse
forcing
 Continental Scale, ~ 50 km
vegetation
loss
 Regional Scale, ~5-20 km
urbanization
Local Scale, ~ 1-3 km
local climate change
projections
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Summary
 Global temperatures have been on the rise
during the last 100 years or so, at a rate
which is faster than the natural cycle and
therefore suggests that non-natural (i.e.
anthropogenic) contributions are
significant.
 Anthropogenic contributions are mainly in
the form of a significant increase in
greenhouse gases.
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Summary
 Because energy demand will continue to rise
while fossil supplies decrease, the only way to
ensure energy security as well as to mitigate the
direct and indirect effects of global warming is
to use alternate energy sources.
 Estimations of the effects of climate change at a
specific location with different carbon reduction
levels requires the use of statistical or numerical
downscaling methods.
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