Transcript 624 KB - arcus

SEARCH Implementation
Presentation
SEARCH Open Science Meeting
Seattle, Washington
Wednesday, October 29, 2003
Jamie Morison
Polar Science Center, University of Washington
[email protected]
SEARCH
Motivation
Axiom - The Arctic has been characterized in recent decades by a complex
of significant, interrelated, pan-Arctic changes (Unaami).
Hypothesis 1 - Unaami is related to a spin up of the atmospheric Polar
Vortex.
Hypothesis 2 - Unaami is a component of climate change.
Hypothesis 3 - Feedbacks among the ocean, the land, and the atmosphere
are critical to Unaami.
Hypothesis 4 - The physical changes of Unaami have large impacts on the
Arctic ecosystems and society.
Implementation
To test these hypotheses and help society deal with change requires a
program long-term, large-scale observations, analysis, and modeling.
SEARCH
Implementation Strategy
http://psc.apl.washington.edu/search/index.html
Activities
http://psc.apl.washington.edu/search/Activities/activities.html
ASR - Arctic System Reanalysis
SSC Present and New (2004)
Present SSC
Jamie Morison (Chair)
Lou Codispoti (ExCom)
Jim Overland (ExCom)
Mark Serreze (ExCom)
Vera Alexander
Tom Delworth
Bob Dickson
Hajo Eicken
Jackie Grebmeier
Konrad Hughen
George Hunt
Jack Kruse
Dennis Lettenmaier
Dave McGuire
Peter Schlosser
Gus Shaver
John Walsh
New SSC
Peter Schlosser (Chair)
Larry Hamilton (Vice-Chair)
Jamie Morison (Past Chair)
Bob Dickson
Jennifer Francis
Jackie Grebmeier
Konrad Hughen
George Hunt
Dennis Lettenmaier
Jim Maslanik
Dave McGuire
Peter Rhines
Gus Shaver
Koni Steffen
John Walsh
Past Members: Dave Battisti, Ed Carmack - Humphrey Melling, Doug
Martinson, Jonathan Overpeck, Charlie Vorosmarty
DQU: Detecting and Quantifying Unaami and Other Modes
of Variability
Use paleoclimate, historical, archeological records as
well as more recent observations to better define the
scope of Unaami and its relation to other modes of
variability.
DQU Proxy Sites
DTO: Distributed Terrestrial Observatories
Make large-scale atmospheric, hydrological, glaciological,
and ecosystem observations in the terrestrial environment.
Distributed Terrestrial Observatories
Yenisey R
Russia
x
Ob R
x
x
x
x
Lena R
Tiksi
Abisko
x Kolyma R
Cherksiy
Nor
Svalbard
Arcic Ocean
x
x
Barrow
Yukon R
x
Toolik
x
Bonanza
x
Alert
x
Eureka
Alaska
Distributed Terrestrial
Observatories
Intensive Site
Resolute
x
x
Mackenzi e R
Intermediate Site
(e.g., ITEX, CEON)
x
Extensive Site
Canada
Greenland
Thule
x
DMO: Distributed Marine Observatories
Make large-scale atmospheric, oceanographic, sea ice
and ecosystem observations in the marine environment.
Distributed Marine Observatories
Ob R
Yenisey R
Russia
Lena R
Tiksi
45
44
Abisko
Kolyma R
4
46
13
3
31
Cherksiy
43
Norway
23
2
5
27
20
32
6
19
37
40
Svalbard
33
17
1
30
38
26
22
14
42
41
21
36
15
29
33
7
16
Yukon R
35
Barrow
8
Distributed Marine
Observatories
34
Alert
39
18
25
Eureka
9
IABP Drifti ng Bu oys
Oce an Pa thway Moori ngs
Cross Shelf Excha nge Mo oring s
Bas in Moo rings
Gateway Moo rings
She lf Moo rings & Surveys
Mackenzi e R
ASOF Hydro graph ic Sections
Clic Hydrogra phic Sectio ns
Othe r Section s
Au toma ted Dri ftin g Sta tion s
Upward L ookingSona rs
12
11
10
Greenland
Thule
Resolute
24
28
Canada
LAO: Large-scale Atmospheric Observatories
Make large-scale atmospheric observations beyond the
the marine or terrestrial observing systems.
Large-scale Atmospheric Observatories
Yenisey R
Russia
x
Ob R
x
x
x
Tiksi
Tiksi
x
Lena R
Abisko
x Kolyma R
Norway
Cherksiy
Svalbard
Svalbard
x
x
Barrow
Barrow
Yukon R
x
Toolik
x
Bonanza
x
Alert
xEureka
Alaska
Greenland
Thule
Large-scale Atmospheric
Observatories
Major
Major Weather
Weather Stations
Stations
Remote
Remote Sensing,
Sensing, e.g.
e.g. TOVS
TOVS
x
Resolute
x
GCOS - GTOS
DTO Intensive Site
x
Mackenzi e R
DTO Intermediate Site
x
Canada
DTO Extensive Site
IABP Drifting Buoys
Automated Drifting Stations
LGC: Linkages and Global Coupling
Use modeling and analysis * to elucidate the
connections between Unaami and global climate and the
connections within the arctic system as they pertain to
Unaami.
* use DQU, DMU, DTO, process studies as required
ASR: Arctic System Reanalysis
A program of data assimilation and modeling to develop
optimum estimates of difficult or impossible to observe
critical parameters of the arctic system.
ASR: Arctic System Reanalysis
Optimal
Estimates
Observations
Optimal
Assimilation or
Filtering Method
Arctic Subsystem
Model
(e.g. Ice-Ocean Model)
Model
Output
Nudging
SEI: Social and Economic Interaction
Examine the interactions of the physical and biological
elements of Unaami and the social and economic
systems within the context of other forces of social
change.
SOR: Social Response
Research social and economic adaptation to climate
change in the past and apply research on Unaami to
economic and social concerns in the future. Find ways
to communicate the results of SEARCH to decision
makers.
SEI, SOR and Co-ops
SEI
SOR
Information
Community
Co-ops
Industry
Co-ops
Decision Makers
Implementation “Opportunities”
Internationalization
Necessary. How do we do it?
Fidelity of Action with Plans
Important for a coordinated long-term program. How do
we do it?