Rasmussen_overview_of_RAL_presentation_1-4

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Transcript Rasmussen_overview_of_RAL_presentation_1-4

5 January 2010
NCAR Research
Applications Laboatory
“Science in Service to Society”
Roy Rasmussen
Research Applications Laboratory
NCAR Laboratories
NESL
NCAR Earth
Systems Laboratory
CISL
Computational and
Information Sciences Lab
EOL
Earth Observing
Laboratory
RAL
Research Applications
Laboratory
Research Applications Laboratory
“Science in Service to Society”
• Mission: To develop and transfer knowledge and
technology to US government agencies, the private
sector, and foreign governments
– Expand the reach of atmospheric science into weather-sensitive human
endeavors
• New uses for atmospheric science to benefit people and industry
– Contribute to the depth of fundamental and practical understanding in
atmospheric science
• Perform cutting-edge research
– Develop new sources of support for such research
– Partnerships with other groups
• Approach: normal business practices, including
–
–
–
–
Performance as promised
Emphasis on quality
Discussions regarding the “art of the possible”
Attention to customer needs
RAL application areas (examples)
• Aviation weather
– Icing, snowfall, storms, turbulence, oceanic, ceiling,
visibility, volcanic ash
• Hydrometeorology
– Thunderstorm forecasting/nowcasting, rainfall
estimation, surface hydrology, aerosol/precipitation
studies, cloud seeding studies
• National security applications and range
meteorology
– NWP systems, applications (e.g., transport and
diffusion), climate downscaling, urban meteorology
• Surface transportation
– Road weather, decision support tools
• Testbed for advanced numerical techniques
– WRF, data assimilation, new verification methods
• Climate Impacts
– Regional adaptation to climate change
– Climate and health
• Renewable energy
– Wind, solar
RESEARCH
Microburst
APPLICATIONS
Aviation Safety
RESEARCH
TECHNOLOGY
Microburst
Systems
Engineering
Specialized
Displays
APPLICATIONS
• Algorithm development
Real-Time Operational Systems
• System demonstration
Aviation Safety
• Validation
• End User
RESEARCH
TECHNOLOGY
Land-Surface
Modeling
Remote Sensing
Hydrologic
Applications
Thunderstorm
Nowcasting
Precip.
Nowcasting
Numerical
Weather Prediction
Ceiling &
Visibility
Wind Field
Retrieval
Icing and Related
Cloud Physics
Atmospheric
Turbulence
Hybrid
Forecast
Techniques
Verification
Research
Instrument
Development &
Evaluation
Precipitation &
Air Chemistry
Snowfall and
Freezing Drizzle
Social
Science
Specialized
Displays
Systems
Engineering
• Algorithm development
Real-Time Operational Systems
Information
Technology
• System demonstration
• Validation
• End User
APPLICATIONS
Reservoir of Capability
Aviation
Weather
National
Security
• Weather products
• Decision support aids
Hydrometeorology
Public Forecast
Improvements
• Operational systems
• Expert advice
Energy
• Education
• Training
Surface
Transportation
Climate
Impacts
• Commercialization
• Advocacy
RESEARCH
Land-Surface
Modeling
Remote Sensing
Hydrologic
Applications
Thunderstorm
Nowcasting
Precip.
Nowcasting
TECHNOLOGY
Hybrid
Forecast
Techniques
Numerical
Weather Prediction
Ceiling &
Visibility
Wind Field
Retrieval
Icing and Related
Cloud Physics
Atmospheric
Turbulence
Verification
Research
Instrument
Development &
Evaluation
Precipitation &
Air Chemistry
Snowfall and
Freezing Drizzle
Societal
Impacts
Specialized
Displays
Systems
Engineering
• Algorithm development
Real-Time Operational Systems
Information
Technology
• System demonstration
• Validation
• End User
APPLICATIONS
Reservoir of Capability
Aviation
Weather
National
Security
• Weather products
• Decision support aids
Hydrometeorology
Public Forecast
Improvements
• Operational systems
• Expert advice
Marine
Weather
• Education
• Training
Surface
Transportation
Fire
Weather
• Commercialization
• Advocacy
Organization (~ 225 people)
Deputy
Directors
for
engineering
and
science
Emphasis on:
Research Applications Laboratory
Brant Foote, Director
Richard Wagoner, Deputy Director
Liz Hoswell, Acting Administrator
Aviation Applications Program (AAP)
Bruce Carmichael, Director
National Security Applications Program (NSAP)
Scott Swerdlin, Director
Project mgmt
structure
Staffing matrix
Hydrometeorology Applications Program (HAP)
Roy Rasmussen, Director
Weather Systems and Assessment Program (WSAP)
Bill Mahoney, Director
Steady history
of growth
Climate Science and Applications Program (CSAP)
Lawrence Buja, Director
Joint Numerical Testbed (JNT)
Barb Brown, Director
Societal Impacts and
Social Science
Some program
history and
highlights
DWFE Predicted Reflectivity, t=+48h
WRF-NMM
10:00 Z, 8 Mar 05
Falsas
alarmas
Ausentes
Ayudas
Pronóstico Observado
RAL’s first decision support tool
(now have more than a dozen different examples)
Graphical Situation Display
Alphanumeric Alarm Display
Used by:
Supervisors/Managers
Controllers
U.S. Fatalities Associated with
Aviation Wind Shear Accidents
152
Number of Fatalities
150
138
134
112
Wind Shear R&D
100
Pilot Training
TDWR
50
0
37
0*
0
'65-'69
'70-'74
'75-'79
'80-'84
'85-'89
Year of Accident
Weather:
70% of delays > 15 min
1/4 of all accidents
'90-'94
'95-'99
* Final accident report on AA accident at Little Rock, AR
not completed. May be wind shear with 10 fatalities.
No TDWR system at Little Rock.
Source: NTSB
Aviation Weather R&D at NCAR
27 years of progress
Aviation Weather R&D at NCAR
clear-air turbulence
convective weather
terrain-induced turbulence
In-flight icing
ground de-icing support
volcanic ash
ceiling & visibility
NASA — ASAP Program
NASA’s “Advanced Satellite Aviation-weather
Products” initiative was started in 2002 to
help transfer new satellite observing
systems and products into operational use
through by means of a collaborative effort
with the FAA’s Aviation Weather Research
Program (AWRP).
Current program elements at NCAR include:
In-flight Icing
Turbulence
Convective Weather
Space Weather (ADDS)
NextGen Support
External collaborators include:
NASA LaRC
Uinversity of Wisconsn CIMSS
Univ. of Alabama Huntsville
MIT/LL & NRL-Monterey
Current Icing Product (CIP) Enhancement
Incorporating NASA satellite products…
Testing NASA cloud-top estimate and satellite-derived cloud phase parameter
shows reduction of over-predicted icing areas and improvement in PODn.
Operational CIP Method
Experimental NASA Enhancements
MODIS Water Vapor Imagery Helps Identify Mountain Waves
Feature Identification…
Clear-air mountain wave
features over Colorado,
visualized using enhanced
6.7μm satellite imagery
(figure courtesy UW-CIMSS).
Red & orange
circles show
pilot reports
with moderate
or greater
turbulence.
Complex wave patterns with intersecting features
may be related to moderate or greater turbulence.
Activities started more recently
• Renewable energy
• Climate change in relation to:
– Water resources
– Health
– Urban emissions, adaptation, & vulnerability
– Assessing vulnerability and adaptation in
native communities (ASP post doc)
NCAR Water System Program
Global Water Cycle Studies
Colorado Headwaters
How Does the Water Cycle Change
as Climate Changes?
Diurnal Cycle of Precipitation
In the Lee of Topography
Noon
Directional
shear
Early next morning

15 ms-1
c

CumuloCumulonimbus


MCS =
cumulonimbus
family
Mesoscale
downdraft
To first order, elevated solar heating
determines start position & start
time of traveling convection
~1000 km
Moister further east
Societal Impacts
Convective Parameterization
1D cloud
model
NCAR
Research Applications Laboratory
DWFE Predicted Reflectivity, t=+48h
WRF-NMM
10:00 Z, 8 Mar 05
Falsas
alarmas
Ausentes
Ayudas
Pronóstico Observado