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Erika Mudrak
Bessey 224
([email protected])
Part #1:
The Driving Force behind
Climate Change
Further Evidence
Mauna Loa
Fossil Atmospheres
Direct Evidence of Warming
Part #2:
Predicting the Impact
on Vegetation
Paleoecology:
Evidence from the Past to
Predict Change in the Future
Past Climate Change: ~15,000 bp
Temperature in Perspective
Plumbing the Pollen Record
Sources of Fossil Pollen (cores)
• Bogs
• Lake/ocean sediments
Independent dating (C14 dating)
• C14:C12 set at death
• C14 is radioactive
• C14 decays to C12
• Half life of ~ 5730 y
• Accurate up to 35,000 y bp
Examining the Pollen Record
The Pollen Record: a broader view
Distribution >13,000 bp
A Community
Ecology
Perspective
Problems with Pollen Cores
• Bias towards winged pollen
• Insect pollinated: under represented
• Locally abundant: over represented
• Unavailable in arid or semi-arid systems
Paleoecology through Packrat Middens:
a semi-arid solution
Neotoma cenerea
A Fossil Midden
Midden
Locations
Distribution of
Present day
Pinus edulis
~ 17,000 bp
Attempts to Predict the Future
Global Climate Models (GCMs)
Global Climate Models (GCMs)
Global Climate Models (GCMs)
Global Climate Models (GCMs)
Example Predictions from a GCM
Predicting Change in Biomes
Current distribution
Biome — “a major
biogeographic region
that differs from other
regions in structure of its
vegetation and dominant
plant species”
Predicting Change in Biomes
Current distribution
A predicted distribution in
75 to 100 years
Predicting Change in Local Communites:
San Francisco Peaks, AZ
Climate Change Impacts on Agriculture
in the United States
The National Assessment Synthesis Team,
US Global Change Research Program
Published in 2000
The Climate Envelope Approach
to Prediction
Acer sacchrum range map (1971)
with known occurrences
Climate Envelope Model for Distribution
of Acer Sacchrum
Predicted distribution based
on temperature and precipitation
Observed occurrences and
associated range map
Climate Envelope Model for Distribution
of Acer Sacchrum
Predicted distribution based
on temperature and precipitation
Predicted distribution based on
temperature (under irrigation)
Climate Envelope Model for Distribution
of Acer Sacchrum
Based on temperature and precipitation
Based on temperature under irrigation
Predicted range under one climate change scenario
Indirect Effects of Climate Change:
Sea Rise
Climate Change and Exotic Species