Transcript Presentation Part 1

Informal Thematic Debate of the
United Nations General Assembly
New York, NY
31 July 2007
Climate Change as a Global Challenge
Presented by
Kenrick R. Leslie
The Caribbean Community
Climate Change Centre
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Panel 1
Thematic Debate on Climate Change:
the Science, the Impact and Adaptation
Imperatives
Round 1
PROJECTED AND OBSERVED CLIMATE
CHANGE-RELATED
TRENDS AND IMPACTS IN THE
CARIBBEAN
2
Climate trend in the Caribbean
region
• The climate in the Caribbean region has
been changing in a manner very
consistent with the observed variations
at global and northern hemisphere
levels.
3
Climate Change-related Impacts in the
Caribbean
• Over the last decade the Caribbean has been
experiencing:
– Lower diurnal temperature variation and much warmer
nights.
– More frequent incidence of coral bleaching.
– Hurricanes developing at lower latitudes and becoming
more intense in a shorter period of time.
– More frequent outbreaks of pest infestation.
– More extreme drought and flood events.
– More incidence of extreme temperature-related stress
events to humans, animals and plants.
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Temperature and Rainfall Trends in the
Caribbean
Trinidad
1.5
0.6
1.0
0.4
0.5
0.2
0.0
– Records have shown
changing patterns
– Floods in some areas
and droughts in other
areas
1999
1996
1993
1990
1987
1984
1981
-1.0
-0.6
a
-0.8
b
-1.5
Year
Dominica
1.0
1.0
0.8
0.5
0.6
2000
1997
1994
1991
1988
1985
2004
2001
1998
1995
1992
1989
1986
1983
1980
1977
-1.0
-0.2
1982
0.0
1979
-0.5
1976
0.2
1974
0.0
0.4
1973
• Rainfall trend
1978
-0.4
Year
St. Lucia
– In the region, 1998 also
appears as the warmest
year on record
1975
1972
1969
1966
1963
-0.5
1960
2003
2000
1997
1994
1991
1988
1985
1982
1979
1976
-0.2
0.0
1973
– Temperature records have
shown an increase in the
last century, with the 1990s
being the warmest decade
since the beginning of the
20th century.
Barbados
0.8
1970
• Temperature trend
-1.5
-0.4
-0.6
c
-2.0
d
-2.5
-0.8
1973
to
Year
2000
1973
Year
2000
Variations of land surface
temperature for the Caribbean
5
Increasing episodes of coral bleaching in the
Caribbean since the 1980s
Branching coral
Brain coral
6
Hurricanes developing at lower latitudes and
becoming more intense in a shorter period of time
Grenada
Cozumel
Ivan developed near 8oN latitude
Wilma developed from a tropical depression
to the most intense category 5 hurricane in
less than 24 hrs
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The Impact of more intense
hurricanes & SLR
Coastal Impact of Storm Surge and Wave
Action under a Sea Level Rise Scenario
1997
2020
Wave Action
Wave Action
Storm Surge
Storm Surge
MSL 1997
MSL 2020
MSL 1997
Response Strategies:
• Retreat
• Accommodation
• Protection
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OUTBREAKS OF PEST INFESTATION
Pine bark beetle infestation in the Mountain Pine Ridge of Belize
combined with reduced rainfall resulted in increased incidence of
forest fires, soil degradation and higher than normal sediment
loading in the rivers and deposits on coral reef.
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Flooding in low coastal areas
(One of many flood events Georgetown, Guyana)
10
For a 2oC rise in temperature
(Implications for the Caribbean)
• Serious impact on
– Marine ecosystem
– Agriculture
– Forest and terrestrial ecosystem
– Tourism and other socio-economic sectors
– Health
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Loss of Fish Habitat
Habitat becomes less
favourable
Yellow tuna
+1°C
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Habitat becomes less
favourable
Dolphin fish
Coryphaena hippurus
+1°C
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2oC Impact on Agriculture
Preliminary studies on the impact on corn, beans
and rice for future climate scenarios for 2oC warmer
and for a +/- 20% change in precipitation is indicated
below:
Crop
Scenario
Name
Dry beans Baseline
C3
Carib A
Rice
C3
Baseline
Carib A
Maize
C4
Baseline
Carib A
Season
Length
(days)
87
85
85
124
113
113
104
97
97
Temperature
Change (oC)
0
+2
+2
0
+2
+2
0
+2
+2
% Change
in
precipitation
0
+20
-20
0
+20
-20
0
+20
-20
Yield
(kg/ha)
1353.6
1163.7
1092.6
3355.5
3014.4
2887.5
4510.6
3736.6
3759.4
% change
in Yield
-14%
-19%
-10%
-14%
-22%
-17%
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For further information please contact us at:
THE CARIBBEAN COMMUNITY
CLIMATE CHANGE CENTRE
2nd Floor, Lawrence Nicholas Bldg.
P.O. Box 563
Bliss Parade,
Belmopan City, Belize
Tel: +501-822-1094/1104
Fax: +501-822-1365
Website: www.caribbeanclimate.bz
The best way to predict the future...is to create it ...
THANK YOU
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