Transcript The Business Forecast 2005 (Graham Smith)

The Role of Technology in Reducing Road
Transport Emissions
Climate Change: The Business Forecast
5th October 2005
Graham Smith
MD Toyota (GB) PLC
Chairman, Low Carbon Vehicle Partnership
Rising transport emissions threaten the UK
achieving its Kyoto and domestic CO2 targets
Changes in UK GHG emissions by principal end user sectors
120%
Business
Change on 1990
110%
Industrial processes
100%
Kyoto target
90%
Transport
Residential
80%
Agriculture
UK CO2 target
70%
60%
Total (GHG)
50%
Total (CO2)
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
Source Climate Change Programme Consultation
Toyota’s Guiding Principle
Zeronise
Maximise
Reducing road transport emissions will require a
combination of measures
 Reduced vehicle emissions
 Low carbon / alternative fuels
 Improved driver behaviour
 Reduced vehicle use
 Better freight distribution
Estimated costs and savings of alternative
technology
100
Renewable hydrogen with fuel cell
Advanced biofuels with hybrid
90
Fraction CO2 saved
80
Hydrogen from gas & coal (plus
carbon capture) with fuel cell
70
60
Hydrogen
from gas &
coal with fuel
cell
50
40
Grid electricity
with battery
Bioethanol
FAME
30
Gasoline
Hybrid
20
Hydrogen
from gas &
coal with
hybrid
Diesel
10
Gasoline
0
0
100
200
300
400
500
Additional cost £/tonne CO2 avoided
Adapted from E4Tech – A Strategic Framework for Hydrogen Energy in the UK
Toyota’s Multi Path Approach
The Ultimate ECO-Car
-
HSD
FCHV
THS
Hybrid Technology
GTL
Toyota D-CAT
D4
Lean-burn
CNG
EV
Common-rail
VVT-i
Alternative
fuel
Diesel
Petrol
Electricity
Future evolution of Hybrid Technology
FINE-S: hydrogen
Prius: gasoline
Engine
Fuel Cell
Power
control
unit
Secondary
battery
Motor
Secondary
battery
Power
control
unit
Motor
Environmental concerns are a low priority for
most private car buyers
Top priorities
Price
Fuel consumption
Size/Practicality
Reliability
Comfort
Safety
Running costs
Style/Appearance
 Whilst mpg is reported as a key
decision making factor there is little
evidence to demonstrate this
Some influence
Performance
Image
Brand
Insurance
Engine size
Equipment levels
Car-buyer reported concerns
Low priorities
Depreciation
Experience
Sales Package
Dealership
Environment
Vehicle Emissions
Road tax
Alternative fuel
 Motorists have a poor
understanding of vehicle running
costs and will bear additional annual
costs of £1-1.5k before considering
downsizing their vehicles
 Public understanding of vehicle
emissions and new technology is very
limited
 Whilst motorists are concerned
about climate change few understand
its causes and less take personal
responsibility
Moving consumer attitudes in favour of low
carbon vehicles is a major challenge
New car sales by VED Band
100
F
90
80
E
60
D
50
40
C
30
20
B
10
A
2003
2001
1999
0
1997
% Sales
70
Low Carbon Vehicle Partnership
Accelerating a
sustainable shift
to low carbon
vehicles and fuels
in the UK
Stimulating
opportunities for
UK businesses
Summary
 Technology offers the potential to significantly reduce greenhouse gas
emissions from road transport – but responsible vehicle use will also be
an important contributor
 The range of fuel and vehicle technology options are wide – most
vehicle manufacturers believe hybrid technology is an important step in
the evolution of technology to zero emission vehicles
 Low carbon technologies come at a financial premium and current
incentives are inadequate to change the attitudes and purchasing
behaviours of most consumers
 The transition to a low carbon future needs a partnership approach the
LowCVP is delivering.