Transcript Impact of Global Change on the Coastal Areas of the Rio de la Plata

Impact of Global Change on
the Coastal Areas of the Rio
de la Plata: Sea Level Rise
and Meteorological Effects
AIACC – LA26
Argentina
Rio de la Plata (physical aspects)
•
Estuary zone formed by the junction of the Parana River
(16000m3/s) and Uruguay River (6000m3/s).
• Approximately has 300km long and soon reaches a 50km width
that increases until 250km at the mouth.
• The Parana Delta is growing and the coastal zone of the San
Borombom Bay is retreating by storm surges.
• The flow dynamic is driven by the incoming tidal wave, the
discharge of the tributaries and the wind.
• The Coriolis effect makes higher levels of water in Argentina
than Uruguay.
Rio de la Plata (socio-economic aspects)
•
Argentina coastal area of the Rio de la Plata has the most
important concentration of population, urban centers,
infrastructure and services of the country.
• The total population of the zone is 11000000 inhabitants,
formed by the Buenos Aires City (3000000 inhabitants) and the
Big Buenos Aires (8000000 inhabitants).
• The rate of urbanization of this area is 97.5% and the density
of population is 1361.7 inhabitants per km2.
PROJECT FRAMEWORK
Impact models:
•Meteorological
•Hydraulics
Vulnerability
Assessment
(social aspects)
Risk Assessment:
FLOODS
Risk Assessment:
EROSION
NEOTECTONICS
Vulnerability
Assessment
(economic aspects)
Vulnerability
Assessment
(institutional
aspects)
Stakeholder
Analysis:
Intercosultation
with institutions
Risk Analysis
COPING RANGE
THRESHOSLDS
The Current Situation in Argentina
Climate Change is not a priority now.
At Policy Makers level this issue is perceived as a long-term
problem (large time scale). It’s scientists matter.
Our Strategies
Build Scientific
knowledge
Analyze how to introduce aspects
of the problem in transversal
ways related to identified
ongoing adaptation strategies
(Capacity Building in a broad field)
How to influence policy makers?
• The relation with the stakeholders as a continuous process
vs. contact them with the final science report
• Reinforced the concepts of Adaptation and Coping Range to
address the problem (inside the project and as a strategic
approach)
• Not present the Climate Change as a disaster or a catastrophic
scenario (add one more problem).
Main tools
• Interconsultation with Stakeholders (Institutions)
- Stakeholder as a privileged users and key informants
- Go beyond isolated consulting to install a communicative process
• Risk Assessment
- Considering physical aspects
- Identifying and working with driver forces
- Making a probabilistic approach
Re-think the linkage between this concepts:
Adaptation Strategies
COPING
RANGE
Vulnerability //
Determinants of
Adaptative capacities