Transcript Nature - MOspace

Towards a Carbon-Neutral Future:
Scenario-based Assessment of
Climate-induced Risks to
Regional Energy Production and
Trends in the Kansas City Area
Jimmy Adegoke
Chris Green
Center for Applied Environmental Research (CAER)
University of Missouri-Kansas City
Climate Impacts Assessment
External
Stresses
Institutional
Barriers
Climate Research
Community
Climate Impacts
Science
Managed Natural
Resource Systems
climate
- Seasonal/interannual
climate forecasting
- Anthropogenic climate
change projections
Nature
Institutions
CLIMATE
IMPACTS
SCIENCE
humans
- Resource Managers
nature
- Policymakers
- User Communities
• Although the prediction of a subset of
possible future climate conditions or
scenarios can be helpful, a vulnerability
assessment of risk to climate and other
environmental stress is the most useful guide
that science can provide to policy makers.
Adaptation &
Change
Credit: The UW Climate Impacts Group (CIG)
People Driven – Regional Focus
Agriculture
Water Resources
Energy
Health
Motivation:
• Increase regional resilience to
climate variability and change
• Produce science useful to the
decision making community
An understanding of the patterns and consequences of past
climate variability, policy responses and their impacts is
essential for preparing for future changes in climate.
Climate Protection in Kansas City MO
Timeline
1996
The Environmental Management Commission (EMC) was created.
2001
The EMC created the KC Sustainability Plan to holistically address city
operations, codes and ordinances, and regional cooperation.
2004
City adopts a mandatory LEED Silver Rating for all new city buildings.
2005
The EMC negotiated curb-side recycling in 2005. Mayor Kay Barnes signs the
Climate Protection Partnership in 2005.
2006
The EMC’s recommended Climate Protection Resolution was passed.
2007
The EMC led efforts in 2007 to implement cost-effective mitigation
strategies to reduce GHG emissions from city operations below
30% 2000 levels by 2020.
Climate Protection in Kansas City MO
GHG Emissions for Kansas City, Missouri
3,500,000
3,000,000
In metric tons
2,500,000
Year
2,000,000
2000
2005
1,500,000
2020
1,000,000
500,000
0
Residential
Commercial
Per Category
Industrial
The Greater Kansas City Chamber of Commerce
Climate Protection Partnership
• Formed by the Greater Kansas City Chamber of Commerce
• 145 area businesses have signed on
• Obligations include:
– conduct an inventory of greenhouse gas emissions
– set clear reduction goals that maximize economic
opportunity and minimize business and regulatory risk
UMKC Center for Applied Environmental
Research (CAER) provides Technical Consulting
Services to the Partnership
Carbon Emission Accounting for Swope
Community Enterprises (SCE)
Swope Community Enterprises
Swope Community
Enterprise Services
Swope Health
Services
Swope Community
Builders
Swope Center for
Career Advancement
Applied Urban Research
Institute
Carbon Footprint Calculator
2007 Carbon Costs for SCE
Total:
• $270,326 for electricity
• $18,272 for natural gas
• $65,580 for automotive fuel
• $138,101 for paper purchases
• $9,365 for waste disposal____
$501,644
SCE’s Total Footprint
•
•
•
•
•
5400 tons from electricity
1170 tons from automotive fuel
24 tons mainly from paper products
59 tons from natural gas usage
5 tons from waste disposal_____________
6,659 tons of CO2
–
9 tons sequestered
6,650 tons of CO2
Mitigation Projections
Percent of Total Savings ($19,000)
Hot water
1%
Lighting
7%
Heating and cooling
43%
Electronics and
electrical equipment
49%
A Residential “Savings” Assessment
Potential savings of policies encouraging energy efficiency measures
can be calculated region-wide
1.
2.
3.
4.
Household numbers by city and county are provided in Census’s Tiger data available
from esri.com
Energy usage data available by region on DOE’s website
Average reductions in energy usage and bills using specific energy efficient devices
are available on Energy Star website
Reductions in energy usage from energy efficient devices and measures can be
subtracted from total household energy data per city or county in an excel
spreadsheet
Census Bureau
Households
per
city/county
DOE
x
Energy usage
per
household
New Energy Usage
Energy Star
-
Energy usage
reductions
=
Reduced
energy usage
per household
The spreadsheet can be displayed in ArcGIS and potential savings can be graded using
ArcGIS statistical analysis tools.
What is the potential for KCMO to
move toward a carbon-neutral
future?
Scenarios for a Carbon
Constrained World
1. UMKC Center for Applied Environmental
Research (CAER) is conducting this study on
behalf of the Kansas City Environmental
Management Commission (EMC)
2. Goal is to identify risks and opportunities from
future climate change to specific sectors in
Kansas City Metropolitan Area
The Hazard-Vulnerability Paradigm
• The hazard-vulnerability paradigm focuses on
the protection of society by emphasizing
assessment of risk associated with climate and
other environmental stress and/or hazards.
• This approach quantifies the sensitivity of
individual sectors such as transportation, health,
agriculture, energy etc to a specific hazard and
is therefore, more appropriate as guides to
Policy Makers, than trying to predict only a
subset of possible future climate conditions.
Defining the Scope
• Study boundaries
1. Urban area – KCMO city limits
2. Surrounding area – census designated metropolitan area,
fifteen counties and over 120 cities or MARC ninecounty area
Source: http://www.marc.org/members.htm
http://www.en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kansas_City_Metropolitan_Area.htm
Identifying Stakeholders and Partners
1. Identify stakeholders of each sector
a) Determine sector composition and key
stakeholders
b) Research climate-impact studies conducted by
government agencies, private institutions, or
other entities that are relevant to particular
sectors
Energy Sector Stakeholders
a) Power Production Companies – KCP&L,
b) Commercial & Residential Consumers
c) County & City Governments
d) Regulators
Phase II
2. Sectoral interviews and focus groups
a) Conduct interviews and focus groups with
sector stakeholders to discuss climaterelated perceptions, impacts, adaptations,
and mitigation methods
3. Sector surveys
a) Based on the interview results, construct an
online survey instrument to collect
information on the impacts from specific
extreme weather events on individual
sectors
Kansas City’s Energy Sector
Electricity
Natural Gas
Propane
Coal
Natural Gas
Wind
Consumption
Residential
Generation
Commercial
Industrial
Household Electricity Use
Specific
Climate
Impacts!
Integrated Impacts Assessment
Regional Climate Model
– CAER will analyze archived climate data to examine intensity, frequency,
and duration of sector impacting events
– A regional climate model will be used to simulate impacts based on IPCC
Scenarios.
– Climate model outputs will be used to drive an economic model to quantify
regional economic impacts of climate change.
DICE/RICE
– Regional dynamic Integrated model of Climate and Economy (1996)
– Dynamic Integrated model of Climate and Economy (1990)
– Connects climate change and economic impacts
– Economic damages (or opportunities) are calculated as a function
of sector composition
Regional Climate Impacts Assessment: Problems
and Prospects
1. Confidence in future climate change projections is
increasing, but uncertainties remain
2. We know less about the impacts from regional climate
change and local vulnerabilities
3. Lack of support for local decision making and risk
analyses for the business community
Political will to develop policy and technology
options that are feasible and cost effective is
growing
National Response to the Climate Change
Challenge – Pace Initially Slow; Now Picking Up
July 10, 2008
US House of Rep. Select Committee on Energy
Independence & Global Warming Hearing:
“Global Warming Effects on Extreme Weather”
July 10, 2008 Washington DC