Transcript scenario planning

The coexistence of mankind on the
planet in the future the only way
Scenario planning, business management concepts to try to be Earth's
human co-existence of the Road for future
One of Taiwan's business management consultant,
to the "Global 224 leaders of political entities work together to
create the world's great business"
offer strategies
黃穎捷 Huang, Ying-Chieh in Taiwan 2010/10/10
[email protected]
Preface
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Scientific evidence that global
greenhouse gases, have started to
decline in 2015 to control the increase
will not exceed 2 degrees Celsius, or
else the Earth will enter an irreversible
vicious cycle, including war, pestilence,
famine, drought, floods, hurricanes and
other disasters will take turns
sweeping the planet.
Human only 5 years to combat the
growing global greenhouse gas
emissions.
In this paper, scenario planning,
business management ideas and
experiences, discuss the future of
human co-existence in the way the
Earth.
Content
Scenario planning and some experience of
business management concepts and an
overview of:
Management strategy over the past century and
tools business use technology to create operational
performance, make management, continued to evolve.
Business performance continued to improve key
insight into market opportunities in the master taking it;
timely and appropriate, adjusting the organizational
and operational strategies, start change, reverse the
development difficulties.
Changes in world business management thinking
Do thing right times
 In the 1900s, "Taylor scientific management" theory.
1930, Maslow "behavioral science" and Japan "total quality management"
theory.
 In the 1960s, Porter "Competitive Strategy" management phases.
 In the 1970s, mass production-oriented to strengthen the machine: quality
control, statistical quality control, 5S, quality control circles, statistical
process control, project PERT, critical path method.
Do right thing times
 1980, corporate "restructuring reengineering revolution" phase to
strengthen quality-oriented: ISO, core competence, organizational change,
risk management, Six Sigma, total quality management, lean production,
timely production, enterprise resource planning and customer satisfaction.
 1990 to date, "Learning competitive organization," the network "virtual
organization" forms. Strengthen knowledge / strategic orientation: blue
ocean strategy, business intelligence, balanced scorecard, knowledge
management, vision and mission statements, strategic planning, learning
organization, team building, outsourcing, customer relationship
management, benchmarking, long tail, experience marketing, data mining
and so on.
Some business management concept of Value
Creation clinic model
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To Dr. Deming PDCA management of, Dr. Ichak Adizes
Corporate Life Cycle concept, into the eight ISO
international quality management system operation and
management of the core concepts, develop my
Agribusiness organizational operation and continued
improvement in the quality of the two 12 - step's cycle
mode.
The "reengineering" (Re-engineering the Corporation;
Michael Hammer & James Champy, 2004) of the 4R
(Reposition, Restructure, Re-system, Revitalization),
transformed into "innovative change 6R" (Reposition,
Reorganization & Restructure, Re- system,
Revitalization, Reprocessing, Remarketing) cycle model,
the implementation of farm business efficiency.
Value Creation clinic model
By Dr. Deming's PDCA continuous improvement in
business organizational development, and create new
value.
Act
Plan
•How to improve
next time?
•What to do?
•How to do it?
Check
Do
• Did things happen
according to plan?
•Do what was
planned
1.Confirmation
Customer
needs
12. Evaluation of the
results of process
improvement actions.
2. Establishing the
quality policy and
objectives
11. Monitoring the results of
process improvement
actions.
10. Implementation of
process improvement
action plan.
ISO9000: 2000
quality continues to
improve 12 - step's
cycle mode
9. Preparation process
improvement action plan.
8. Recognized
the
opportunity to
perform the
priority.
7. Look for
opportunities
to enhance
effectiveness
and
efficiency of
the process.
6. Recognizing that
prevention of the
causes of failure
and preventive
measures.
3. To determine the
process to achieve
quality objectives and
responsibilities.
4. To achieve quality goals
established methods of
measurement of process
effectiveness
5. The effectiveness of
the implementation of
the confirmation
process measurements.
Concept of corporate life cycle clinic
400 organizations in 20 countries applied, were great achievements.
Domino's Pizza, 7 years by the 100 million annual turnover growth of 5 million dollars to 15 billion U.S. dollars.
Key:
Establishment of integrated
complementary team: the
leaders of that perfection
does not exist, must find a
complementary
management team.
Characteristics of successful
enterprises: democratic
decision-making,
autocratic executive.
12. Designed to strengthen
the incentive for the
development of benefitsharing system.
1. To arouse a
sense of crisis.
2.Diagnostic
synergy
11. The organization
of the total inventory.
10. Formulate long-term plan, the
establishment of organizational
strategic planning system,
distributed physical resources.
9. To create peak performance
and information sharing,
resource allocation procedures.
8. Above steps
layer by layer
implementation.
Organizational
Value Creation 12step's cycle
Continue to adjust
the mode of
operation
7. Confirm the
new
organizational
structure and
information
systems.
6. The design of
new functional
organizational
structure and new
operational
procedures.
3. Create powerful
synergy CAPI team.
4. Produce structures
with reminders
5. Confirm the
vision and mission.
Effective organizational operation of the
psychological processes
Problem
Change
Management
Executive
Decision
capi
PAEI
Common interests
Complementary team
Different interests
Different styles
Conflict
Destructive conflict
Constructive conflict
Continued from
previous page
Constructive conflict
Symbiosis
Synergy
Learning
Mutual respect
Drink the blood
brothers for the
Union center arena
Partners
Structure
One to One
Love
Mutual trust
Friends
Process
Cognitive
People
Conference
Create value treatment mode
"Organizational innovation and reform 6R" loop transformation
models continue to create value. （Huang Ying-chieh ,2005）
1.組織的重新定位
（Reposition）
6.再創造未來市場
（re-marketing）
2.組織與結構重組
（re-organization & re-structure）
5.人員活力再生重塑企業文化
（Revitalization）
4.重設新法令制度系統
（re-system）
3.重設新流程
（Reprocessing）
Peter Senge
"Learning organization" concept
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So that members have a "spiritual mind"
and "fundamental change." Learning how
to learn.
"Systems thinking" practitioners to
establish a "learning organization"
scaffolding, absorbed in "selftranscendence," "improving mental
models," "building shared vision," "team
learning" and other practitioners to
construct a flexible, resilient, and create
continuous learning , an organization with
a sustainable competitive advantage.
Organizations move up the
impetus is not magic
（ Collective learning
capabilities）
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Open Space to the consensus mode of operation of
business organizations to rethink common.
"Collective learning" establish a common, fervent desire
(shared vision), we can change the same into the ranks.

Only participants have developed a "reflection and probing
the depth of the act" in order to openly discuss the business
of the organization complex issues of conflict, but also to
self-handling "sensitive issues" would not touch the nerve
of self-defense, as fighting and resisting reform .
R. H. Coase 1991 Nobel Prize in Economics
Coase Theorem
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Coase Theorem: "In a
world without transaction
costs, regardless of how
to define the ownership of
property rights, resource
use efficiency is optimal."
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So should the role of a
martial arts, usually only
towards the elimination of
obstacles no matter what
transaction coordination
and communication costs.
The father of modern educational psychology Thorndike (1890)
Enhanced theory of operant conditioning
Formula: internal responses to external stimuli ⇒
consequences
Is a behavioral change caused by the stimulation of the
process and methods.
Response to external stimuli and internal inertia contact
award or punishment for continuous operation, and increase
or decrease.
Reward and punishment behavior is the history of the
decision. Appropriate incentives, can shape behavior.
Many of the ideas or behavior pattern is obtained through
practice experience.
Appropriate rewards and punishments (reinforcement) can
stimulate the reaction (behavior) of the moon as, at the right
time, given the appropriate stimulus (reinforcement), is
actually a culture of life pattern of behavior (reaction).
Management philosophy of yin and yang of China
Assembly, integration, integration
Assembly, integration, integration
Tolerance is
To cross the border, we must sacrifice some of their own
and the other side, crossed the boundaries of your
 See the whole picture (strategy) and to break the artificial
boundary (boundary) is to integrate the core of the problem
 Long period of division the world together, together for a
long time to divide, how to integrate to form one of the
objects is a challenge in the challenge, but after all, there is
an achievement of the period.
 "Gou Quotations" triple spirit "of the collection, integration,
integration." How the combination of the first set and then,
from the combination of advanced to the integration, and
finally fused into one, but (Organization) the biggest
business challenges.
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In recent years, the world's top 10 ranking
management
The most common
management
techniques in
recent years:
Strategic
Planning
Customer
Relationship
Management
Customer
Segmentation
Balanced
Scorecard
Mission
Statement
Core
competence
In recent years, the 10 most commonly used management techniques
Strategy based technology is more important than instrumental
techniques
Scenario and Contingency Planning
Latest (2006) 25 management ranks 8th worldwide
Reason Scenario Planning
Scenario (Scenario) intent that the script or screenplay.
Represents a careful description of the picture of the
future.
 A World War II military planning methods. U.S. Air
Force tried to imagine that competitors may take steps
to prepare the appropriate strategy. Of the 20th
century, 60 years, the Rand Corporation and the U.S.
Air Force has worked ‧ Herman Kahn (Herman Kahn),
the refined this approach into business forecasting
tool.
 In the 1970s, Shell Oil (Shell) prior to the Arab oil
embargo, "scenario planning" and reduce the global
oil supply caused by sudden changes in business
impact.
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Scenario Planning Guidance into the best all-round
transformation of the future
Future Scenario Planning
Yb
Yn
Now
Best Future
Common Future
Z
Yw
The next worst
Over the past
System Dynamic Simulation
30
Scenario Planning Function
Gradually in recent years, combined with the traditional strategic planning as a strategy to
develop analytical tools, and even to guide and accelerate the internal organization of
the learning strategy for change within the organization touches.
Is based on known facts and potential business combination of trends, to explore possible
future perspectives. Is a search for ideas, predict the future, the phenomenon of the
future a description of various unknown ways to develop a "real world may be how it
works," the logic of Thinking.
Is a consistent point of view of possible future conditions - if it is such a development, we
will take such action. In the particular case by the sandbox different exercises to
reduce the risk of uncertainty.
Provide preventive mechanism and function, so that managers did not happen before the
problem, imagine the possible scenario of access to preview, when the imagined
scenario appears, will be able to respond calmly and carefully.
Emphasis on the dynamic evolution of enterprise environment, to do a comprehensive
consideration. The possible path of future development will make a framework, the
specific type of presentation. With a review of available, once the omission of
important factors that could prompt remedy.
Simulated situations to remind members of management organization, the immediate use of
management systems and processes that may not be possible for the next one must
change their business models, ideas, concepts, mindset and values.
To inspire and motivate members and remodeling thawing mental models, active learning
new things, amendments to the common mode of thinking, and action strategies to
implement solutions in order to create a successful future.
Scenario Planning TAIDA steps (Lindgren and
Bandhold):
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
Tracking: Environmental Change and follow the signs to
explore the potential opportunities and threats and
identify trends.
Analyzing: According to generate changes have occurred
or are the events, the causal relationship analysis of
trends and possible future scenario planning.
Imaging: confirm the likelihood of future scenarios, and
adds organizational development vision of the future
organization expected (desired future).
Deciding: According to the information obtained to
measure their importance and to make decisions, and it is
said to develop action strategies.
Acting: the organization planning to organize new
information and members with experience in the old, and
their integration, and begin operations.
The future of mankind on Earth Do right thing thinking
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The above scenario planning concept and experience of
ancient and modern business management, research and
mention the future of human co-existence in the way the
Earth.
(1)
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Tracking
Environmental conditions of human existence on Earth
Groups of human behavior is always in the
"boiling frog Law", burning butt is not
perceived.
Greenhouse gas levels are now higher than
in the past 650,000 years.
United Nations "of the Intergovernmental
Panel on Climate Change" estimate, and
from 1980 to 1999 standards, compared
with each other, to the year 2100, global
surface temperature will rise 1.1 degrees to
6.4 degrees Celsius.
Temperature rise, leading to warming of the
oceans and, like all icebergs are melting,
sea levels will rise 60 meters.
Presumably, to the year 2050, Earth's
average temperature will rise 2 degrees
Celsius; in the past years, the earth's
average temperature increased by only 2
degrees Celsius. In 2100, sea level will rise
15-95 cm, seawater intrusion, third world
population, will suffer the threat of drought,
industry, agriculture was stopped.
Inconvenient Truth CO2 & T
2010年達 388 ppm
2008年達 384 ppm
2006年達 382 ppm
2005年達 380 ppm
Greenland Melt Extent
Himalayas: 40% of the world's rivers and springs from access to drinking water,
while more than half of these drinking water sources but also from the glacier,
the next half century, and that 40% of the people on the planet will be dissolved
because of the glacier face serious water shortages.
Most of the current global land ice mass is located in the Antarctic and
Greenland ice sheets . Complete melting of these ice sheets could lead
to a sea-level rise of about 80 meters.
Future sea level
Future sea level
predictions are uncertain
because of uncertainties
in the contributions of
Greenland and
Antarctica.
 a recent study suggests
rates (0.5 - 1.4 m
 higher
.
of sea level rise by
2100).
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[Rahmstorf, 2007]
Effects of Sea Level Rise
1 meter
2
meters
4
8
GFD
Sea-level rise 6m-15m-25m flood
overflow area diagram Taiwan
Temperature rise, leading to massive release of
methane, start warming cycle, out of control.
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British "nature (Nature)"
Journal reported that the
Earth 600 million 5 million 3
thousand years ago, a lot of
methane released into the
atmosphere, leading to
severe warming and species
extinction, climate chaos for
10 years, this future may be
again.
September 2008 The
Independent The
Independent, scientists have
discovered hundreds of tons
of methane is from the
bottom of the Arctic ice
sheet is released into the
atmosphere.
The researchers detected a large number of methane exist
in the Arctic Ocean
 Methane is leaking from the East Siberian Arctic
Date :09-08-17
Shelf into the atmosphere at an alarming rate.
Climate change not only from increased human
emissions of greenhouse gases, but also the Earth
itself releases more greenhouse gases.
Royal scientific research ship to the North Pole
area, the use of sonar to detect the sea floor more
than 250 methane bubbles. Analysis, this area in
the past 30 years the once water temperature,
leading to the seabed methane decomposition of
methane hydrate, and way of floating bubble
surface.
 Methane hydrate, also known as "combustible ice",
normally present in the seabed under the high
steady state. 30 years ago, these substances can
be 360 meters deep under the sea, stable, and now
they are going to be stable under 400 meters.
If the Arctic sea widespread phenomenon, then the
annual number of tons of methane will be released.
The problem will worsen global warming. And
methane dissolved in seawater acidity will cause
water to increase, a negative impact on the marine
ecosystem.
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Six Degrees: Our Future on a Hotter Planet (2007)
Of: Linus (Mark Lynas)
A large number of scientific research, outlining every 1 ℃ temperature changes will occur:
 Increase 1 ℃: Global food shortages Arctic ice melting accelerated, resulting in climate
changes; atoll island would sink, coral reefs sustained serious bleaching, wider, more
severe droughts become more frequent, the African mountain snow disappeared, there
will be one-third of the world lack of fresh water surface, are no longer livable.
 Increased 2 ℃: Decline and Fall of a million species of marine biology moving towards
sustained warming and acidification, destruction of the food chain, destroying all the
remaining coral reefs, the Greenland ice sheet continued to melt, causing disappearance
of Arctic sea ice the polar bear extinct, more serious water crisis, global food how to
allocate even more difficult.
 Increased 3 ℃: the emergence of a large number of climate refugees? The carbon cycle
will be reversed, soil and plants are no longer absorbing carbon, but began to spit a lot of
carbon, most of the Amazon rain forest will be burned into a desert, extinction started.
 Increased 4 ℃: hot temperatures will dominate everything? Sea-level rise inundated the
coastal cities, the Antarctic ice sheet began to crack, and poles will be in the ice-free state,
the melting of permafrost began to release large amounts of carbon dioxide, food supply
and demand imbalance.
 Increased 5 ℃: World full aliasing? South, the Arctic ice sheet residues will no longer exist,
rising sea levels engulfing coastal cities, ready to attack inland, drought and floods in the
two-sided human beings under attack, the gradual influx place reduced to a population of
large attenuation.
 Increased 6 ℃: Mass Extinction? Collective human will die!
"Six Degrees of change: the future of an increasingly hot planet" (2007)
Carbon dioxide emissions and temperature rise table
Celsius temperature target carbon dioxide concentration
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0.1-1.0oC 350ppm (AD 2005 to more than 1 degree c) to prevent global
average temperature increase of the probability of a time: 0.
1.1-2.0 oC 400ppm (AD 2010 of 388ppm) to prevent global average
temperature increase of 2 degrees of probability: 93%, but only in 7 years,
to reduce global greenhouse gas emissions to reach 60 percent.
2.1-3.0 oC 450ppm, such as temperature has increased twice, and thus
lead to soil and vegetation carbon cycle feedback effects, to avoid global
warming three opportunities: low.
3.1-4.0 oC 550ppm to avoid the chance of a global rise of four degrees:
low, has increased to three if, and lead to thawing Arctic permafrost.
4.1-5.0 oC 650ppm five degrees of global warming to avoid the
opportunity: almost no, if the temperature has increased four times,
while the sea-bed methane trapped and then released.
5.1-5.8 oC 800ppm to avoid the chance of six degrees of global warming:
zero if the temperature had increased to five degrees, when all of the
feedback role will be out of control.
Main cause of environmental disasters
caused by climate
 Has been proved to be the current habits and
ways of human life caused.
 Recognized by human activities cause
greenhouse gas emissions to climate change.
Livestock than the total global greenhouse gas
emissions 51%
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World Watch Institute (WWI) Robert Goodland "livestock and
climate change" and its by-products of livestock that
greenhouse gas emissions 51% of the total world emissions,
FAO, FAO estimated value of more than 18%.
Expected by 2050, global meat production, will be more than
1999 / 2001 229 million tonnes, increased to 465 million tonnes,
while milk output expected to grow from 580 million metric
tons, grew to 1.043 billion tonnes.
Meat industry, global greenhouse gas emissions than
transport more than 40%. Reported that the operation of
factory farms is the biggest factor.
Supply of land required for meat meals, Vegetarian meals are
10 to 20 times, half of the world's grain and soybean
production for feeding livestock.
Conclusions: Soy foods and other alternative to replace the
animal products, this is the best strategy for reversing climate
change.
The current situation of global climate change, human
treatment
1992 "Framework Convention on Climate Change":
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In 1988 the first United Nations General
Assembly on climate change issues.
In 1990 a "Framework Convention on Climate
Change Intergovernmental Negotiating
Committee (INC)", 1992, adopted "United
Nations Framework Convention on Climate
Change" (UNFCCC) . 150 countries signed in
1994, came into effect.
Annual Conference of Parties to the Convention
(COP meetings) for the negotiation and
consultation platform.
Convention greenhouse gas concentrations in
the atmosphere, stability sufficient to allow
ecosystems to adapt naturally to climate
change, to ensure that food production is not
threatened, and economic development can
continue.
But the Convention does not formulate feasible
measures, global carbon dioxide concentration
is still rising.
1997 "Kyoto Protocol":
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To make the world's greenhouse gas emissions to achieve the desired level.
December 1997 "The Third Assembly of States Parties" (COP3) the birth of the
"Kyoto Protocol."
Protocol on how to make detailed provisions to address climate change, and have
legally enforceable reduction targets.
Protocol specification and the EU 38 countries (Annex B countries), the way to
individually or collectively to control the number of anthropogenic emissions of
greenhouse gases must be in the 2008-2012 period, the State of greenhouse gas
emissions to 1990 average, further reduced by 5.2%.
Protocol must be approved by more than 55 countries signed the total carbon
dioxide emissions, Annex I countries accounting for at least, in 1990, 55% of total
carbon dioxide emissions, the Protocol to come into effect.
However, when U.S. President George W. Bush made it clear that the U.S. would
not sign the "Kyoto Protocol." Countries around the world when the U.S.
government's unilateral implementation of global interests, regardless of tendency,
deeply regret.
Russia has also dragged in November 2004, only signed the "Kyoto Protocol."
After six years of negotiations, the "Kyoto Protocol" was formally entered into
force in February 2005.
2009/12/18 Copenhagen agreement
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Task is to determine the developed countries in the "Kyoto Protocol"
of the second commitment period, that is 2012 to 2020 emission
reduction targets, and legally binding.
The results of agreements:
Stipulates that countries need to control global warming within 2
degrees Celsius.
States must be before the end of January 2010, reporting their carbon
reduction targets, and should be reviewed once every two years.
Developed countries signed the agreement promised to be in 20102012, gather 30 billion U.S. dollars in emergency assistance funds
available to developing countries to fight climate change by 2020 to
reach 100 billion U.S. dollars annually, and the establishment of the
Copenhagen green Climate Fund (Copenhagen Green Climate Fund) to
manage.
Agreement in 2010 to reach a consensus on the climate conference to
continue after 2012 the "Kyoto Protocol", continue to control global
greenhouse gas emissions. 2015 to review the agreement.
But the agreement did not determine the countries to reach emission
reduction targets are not legally binding.
Copenhagen political leaders view the world:
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President Barack Obama said it was a "unprecedented"
agreement, but the agreement is not legally binding, is
not enough to combat the threat of climate change.
Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao said the objective
existence of national history, we must face. Do not face
up to history, the international community would not
understand today's rich-poor gap there, not to know how
to seek development in developing countries is still the
most important demands.
French President Nicolas Sarkozy that "Content is not
perfect."
German Chancellor Melk said that, reluctantly accepted
the agreement.
British Prime Minister Gordon Brown said that, we must
quickly conclude a binding treaty.
Caribbean and Latin American leftists to lead the country,
attacks on the Copenhagen agreement is neither
democratic, but also violated United Nations principles.
The threat of climate change was first proposed by
scientists, NASA (NASA) Goddard Institute for Space
Studies, head of Hansen, said: developed countries,
want to maintain their current production levels, so plan
to spend only a little money, from the development
countries to buy emissions quotas, there is an
erroneous practice.
2010/4/12, UNFCCC Executive Secretary
Yvo de Boer in Bonn warned:

If the consultation process in Copenhagen, not as
2010/11/29 to 2010/12/10, at a meeting held in Cancun,
Mexico, a breakthrough will be a heavy blow.
He said: "We (2007) in Bali (Bali) to obtain the
consensus is made in two years after the conclusion of
Copenhagen, but we did not do it."
"End point has been moved to Kanken, but to obtain
a legally binding treaty, if it moved to the final finish
line (end of 2011) for South Africa, I would not be
unexpected."
"Copenhagen is our last piece of amnesty, we can
not withstand another failure in the Kanken." Boer said,
"If we fail again in the Kanken the outside world will be
able to do this is a process of what a tremendous loss
of confidence."
(2) Analyzing
To avoid climate catastrophe of human malignant
detonated coping strategies
 Avoid a global average temperature increase
of 2 degrees of probability of 93%, only
changing the way global human lifestyle, the
world's greenhouse gases, we must begin to
decline in 2015.
 This is a global human emergencies.
To avoid climate catastrophe set off vicious
Change the Earth customary two directions of
human life
 First, the global human moral
persuasion, to change the way of human
living habits.
 Second, a new set of global human way
of life and global legislation strictly
enforced.
Human moral persuasion, to change the
human way of living habits.
 Global community of human bodies, has
been active communication with each other
perform, but has limited effect.
Rogers "innovative communication" normal laws of nature, the key to the sixteen percent across
the threshold of dissemination mechanisms, designed to spread to the slowest learners who
foresight process, there is a huge fault, can break to overcome, is accepted by the mainstream
public The key to success. To cross a critical threshold of sixteen percent (2.5% share innovators,
early adopters 13.5%), reduced to a small minority, can not become the mainstream, or even
disappear in the stage of history.
Save the Earth today, the only way to prevent the detonation:
Only on the new set of human life, and strict implementation of
global legislation
 And the current effects of Earth's most
human tissues Chief Executive is a
national organization.
 But the national organization, the
utilization of resources in the earth, each
other in a competitive position.
Current national organizations
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National organizations, the use of
resources on the earth, each other in a
competitive position.
Human history, mankind's most terrible
killing of the tools are not ships and
armament tech weapons, but the so-called
maintenance of the national security of the
people and the growth of the national
organizations, or regional group system.
So the other national organizations, without
an effective integration and constraint force
can not effectively control the other
national organizations to compete for the
national interests of each other, it can not
effectively control the earth's average
temperature from rising 2 degrees c,
probability.
Current United Nations
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Model United Nations organizations, was 60 years ago, to conform to the then war-torn
environment, world peace and stability, the output of the principles of the new order, the
design expedient organization, time and space situation 60 years ago, the development of
the United Nations Charter, and its vision system , architecture, implementation model
frame, but frame the countries, ethnic group and ideological struggle of the traditional
correspondence model, leading to affect all countries, in the private sphere of strategic
interests and practical considerations, the generated fierce battle with each other. Longer
period of time in various countries of consultation and compromise, resulting in the overall
world's resources, against the cost of upgrading, thus affecting the people of the world of
peaceful coexistence and economic development.
Democratic republic in the world today the rise of the Earth changes the environment, the
difficulties of many global problems and the world of international disputes, has been can
be handled by non-United Nations organizations, the United Nations General Assembly
adopted a resolution on national or political groups, does not have the legal binding, only
moral force.
Moreover, 192 United Nations Member States, not the United Nations Member States up to
52 (excluding the disputed area), is the world's major countries or political entities, a total
of 244. Therefore, the United Nations can not represent global human, to carry out the
actual decision-making and implementation of global government can not effectively
regulate and protect the future of mankind in the earth's sustainable development.
"Global democratic republic," the "world integration
administrative," the rise
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Strong and rich in the United States, since the war since independence, foreign
priority to U.S. interests at home while the implementation of its Democratic and
Republican political system of the operating mechanism, as the world political
benchmarking study, leading to a "global democratic republican ideas" rise.
Today, the world 244 political entities of foreign policy, if we can thoroughly
address the "global democratic republican ideology," the rise of the rest of the
world s peoples, political entity, to show mutual respect, mutual love, mutual trust,
mutual understanding and kind, will win the other countries ethnic, political entities,
the respect of more rapid improvement of the world into the "world integration
administrative doctrine The World Integrate Administrative Ism" innovative
international political development, promoting sustainable peaceful coexistence of
the world.
60 years, the United Nations organizational model designed, completed after World
War II mission of the new world order and stability. As the "global democratic
republican ideology," the rise of organizations like the United Nations expedient
mode is not suitable for today's "global democratic republican ideology"
environment. Therefore, the United Nations is bound to be dissolved and reexpansion of the establishment of a world of international public opinion all agree,
the world are subject to "global democratic republic" program, the ideal "world
integration administrative ideological system" development.
(3) Imaging
One of Scenario Planning: savior scenario
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He is not a great individual, he is not a strong country.
He is a unique and effective management of the Earth organization.
He is recognized by the world public opinion are also the world or
political entity, we are adhering to the organization.
Whether the earth in that corner, a certain level of disaster, he will
immediately occur to the existing standard operating procedures, to
initiate effective rescue operations.He like a very large insurance
company.
He brings together the power of everything in the universe, the earth
all the major issues to resolve.
In His human adhering to the unified management under the direction,
through living a stable life.
He is the world's humanity, and common to be established "global
unified management committee" : Global management committee. Let
it be his birth!
(4) Deciding
" The World Integrate Administrative Ism" meaning:
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I advocate is the "people on the planet."
Mobilizing all the world human, political and administrative
geography lock status, advocates: "to lessen the world between
countries, including all the inside and outside the military armed
aggression, to build a global system of world integration
administrative development."
World of human culture, to macro heart, living in the earth, care
for the Earth, lock the current world regional administrative
functions, discard all the history of racial troubles and hatred,
the establishment of world integration administrative
development of the world's overall administrative and security of
new systems;
The current terrible conflict of war power and resources into
building and restoration of the wounded earth, all the world's
disadvantaged or disaster relief to refugees, the overall
integration of global human development of social life.
"Integration of the executive government of the The World Integrate
Administrative Organization" operating system features with the main
location Discussion:
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
For thousands of years, have the characteristics of the traditional state system, the formal
dissolution; half a century since the establishment of the United Nations system, also the world
promoting "world integration administrative doctrine" during the formal dissolution.
Global 244 political entities, "the collection, integration, integration", the original "United
Nations" organization, reorganized as the "world integration administrative government"
system.
Global 244 political entities, parliamentary system, "the collection, integration, integration", the
establishment of global central parliament, legislative system to coordinate global development.
"Integration of the executive government of the The World Integrate Administrative
Organization" to guide the current all the world countries and regional groups such as Global
244 political entities, with the whole world, leadership, management, and undertake the task of
global governance, responsible for realizing the integration of world politics The mission of the
integration of the executive.
"Integration of the executive government of the The World Integrate Administrative
Organization" really was given command of the global military and public security system
functions. The current world system of the armed forces and security police officers directly
from the "world integration administrative government The World Integrate Administrative
Organization" overall control, national defense budget cut year after year, gradually downsizing
the armed forces of States, and strengthen co-ordination, "Integration of the executive
government of the world The World Integrate Administrative Organization "of the public
security police system development, and eventually the two systems, integrate the" world
integration administrative government "security maintenance.
"Integration of the executive government of the The World Integrate Administrative
Organization" establishment of a global computer network control center to coordinate the
implementation of global integration of administrative security, culture, education, commerce
and other related government in sustainable development worldwide.
(5) Acting
The future of the Earth the only effective way of human
coexistence
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Today, safeguarding world peace and sustainable, not by the super power countries,
competing to flaunt international hero and the role of arbiter of international police, but
for the interests of individual countries, hold in order to stand against each other,
conduct mutually hostile behavior; in not be recognized by international public opinion,
ignoring the United Nations presence, unauthorized military command invaded the
territory, the real war of aggression are inappropriate to the line is not desirable behavior.
As of today the world leaders of countries or political entities, in dealing with
government, must be different from the old era of information developed leaders, to have
a grand view of the world. State or a political entity leaders must recognize that today's
world, must have reached a global human subjects for the global domination of the era.
Therefore, the overall global human 244 political entities, joint transform the United
Nations, the establishment of "global unity Development Management Committee", the
establishment of "global democratic republicanism," the Central Council and the world
of global central government, to co-ordinate individual countries can not handle today's
global issues and governance, development and implementation of human development
in the world today, common law, with the appropriate uniform of the "carbon reduction"
new way of life, and the implementation of strict legislation, and jointly safeguard the
global human development in the republic, the entire planet for future Earth the only
human way of effective co-existence.
Global democratic republic of the world integration administrative
doctrine supported by the evidence of public opinion
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The World Integrate Administrative Ism
(點閱:1575 本則新聞累計賞金：394元
建立「世界整合行政新全球政治運作體系」
(點閱:1892本則新聞累計賞金：636元
『世界整合行政台灣美學之島』黃穎捷網路文集目錄地圖
點閱:11744本則新聞累計賞金：1444元
孔明最後一道錦囊妙計的靈感：當前人類生前預立此增修條款【遺囑】之囑
點閱:7967本則新聞累計賞金：1264元
診療聯合國 Diagnoses and treats the United Nations
點閱:7863本則新聞累計賞金：1028元
經濟發展七階段演進新論
點閱:1883本則新聞累計賞金：704元
台灣人民當覺醒 The Taiwan people when awaken
點閱:2689本則新聞累計賞金：1166元
預測未來數十年，六級產業【心靈改造經濟時代】將繼【美學經濟時代】而來臨。
點閱:3504本則新聞累計賞金：1002元
倡導我是地球人，共創『消弭世界國際間、國內外武力侵略戰爭，建設大同新世界發展制度』新主張，必將落實呈現。
點閱:2959本則新聞累計賞金：822元
讓世界經濟共同邁向【公平正義的均富】發展之道－－【世界整合經濟】
點閱:5001本則新聞累計賞金：754元
呼籲共邀全球志士【打破國界改造世界。】
點閱:1869本則新聞累計賞金：984元
世界上期望可達成的【最偉大願景事業】是什麼？
點閱:2229本則新聞累計賞金：874元
就世界軍事與經濟問題思考【世界整合行政】走向
點閱:4225本則新聞累計賞金：928元
創推【大地球人世界整合行政新主義】(點閱:2266本則新聞累計賞金：584元
共創【世界整合行政主義】國際和平行動公益基金會籌備處網路溝通平台點閱:6287本則新聞累計賞金：708元
【戰爭與和平】新論點閱:4756本則新聞累計賞金：706元
呼籲全世界不分種族與區域的睿智之士串聯動起來! 點閱:2710本則新聞累計賞金：660元
『軍事戰爭』、『政治迫害』和『環境災難』是地球的三大絕症。點閱:3268本則新聞累計賞金：988元
讓我們共同創造人類組織學的最高境界(點閱:199本則新聞累計賞金：158元
可敬的現代世界領袖，必具建立全球民主共和世界中央政府的宏觀。
點閱:962本則新聞累計賞金：882元
Conclusion
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Scenario Planning for future co-existence of mankind on
the planet Road is a long-range orientation, uncertainty
is very high.
In a highly uncertain environment, the Earth's human
development scenario planning organizational change,
so that 244 political entities, the world leaders, think-tank
team, and Earth humans, did not happen in the earth
before the crisis exploded, and imagine the possible
scenarios of access to preview. To promote integration
into this global human culture, to motivate large global
human integration "organizational learning", the
formation of large changes in the organization do not
bleed together to create the highest state of human
tissue, sustainable coexistence on earth.
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黃穎捷（Huang Ying-Chieh），建立「世界整合行政新全球政治運作體系」
黃穎捷（Huang Ying-Chieh），「世界整合行政台灣美學之島」黃穎捷網路文集目錄地圖
黃穎捷（Huang Ying-Chieh），孔明最後一道錦囊妙計的靈感：當前人類生前預立此增修條款「遺囑」之囑
黃穎捷（Huang Ying-Chieh），診療聯合國 Diagnoses and treats the United Nations
黃穎捷（Huang Ying-Chieh），經濟發展七階段演進新論
黃穎捷（Huang Ying-Chieh），台灣人民當覺醒 The Taiwan people when awaken
黃穎捷（Huang Ying-Chieh）：預測未來數十年，六級產業「心靈改造經濟時代」將繼「美學經濟時代」而來臨。
黃穎捷（Huang Ying-Chieh），倡導我是地球人，共創「消弭世界國際間、國內外武力侵略戰爭，建設大同新世界發展制度」新主張，必將落實呈現。
THE END
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Questions and
Discussion