Transcript Climate Change in the Philippines A Contribution to

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Climate Change in the
Philippines
A Contribution to the Country Environmental Analysis
World Bank CEA Workshop
Manila, June 16-17, 2008
Maria Fernanda Garcia Rincón
Felizardo K. Virtucio, Jr.
Outline
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Greenhouse emissions
Climate change impacts in the
Philippines
The Philippines’ response so far to
climate change issues
The way forward on climate change in
the Philippines
Snapshot of Greenhouse
emissions
Philippine's GHG Emissions by Sector (%), 2000
Electricity &
Heat
16%
Land use change
and forestry
55%
Manufacturing &
Construction
5%
Transportation
14%
Industrial
processes
4%
Source: CAIT, WRI 2008
Other fuel
combustion
6%
Climate Change Impacts in the
Philippines
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Vulnerability, Risks and Threats
Climate Variability
> precipitation, temperature, and sea level
changes
Sector Impacts
> agriculture, forestry and lands
> coastal areas, fisheries and marine resources
> water resources
> health
Vulnerability, Risks and Threats
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High vulnerability to
natural disasters
Expect: more frequent
occurrence of El Niño
and La Niña events
The poor at risk: high
poverty incidence; most
poor in natural hazard
prone areas or
dependant of natural
resources at risk
Climate Variability
IPCC 4
First National
Communication
Temperature
↑0.2º
C per decade
↑2-3º C with doubling
GHG @ 2000 level ↑0.1ºC CO2
Precipitation
↑
high altitudes
↓sub-tropical region
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Sea Level
↑0.19-0.59
100
m (1990-2100)
Depending on location:
↑100%; ↑50%; or ↓
cm with doubling
CO2 will innundate 129k
ha
Impact on agriculture, forestry,
and land
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Land degradation reduces productivity,
and changes in land-use in turn
increase emissions
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1990-2000: 3.3% rice production lost as a consecuence of
typhoons, floods, drought.
El Nino (97-98) resulted in ↓6.6% GDP in agriculture
production
Degraded land causes migration to less productive land
Loss of subsistence-based livelihoods: 35% of labor force
depends on sector
55.9% of CO2 emissions from land use & forestry (2000)
Loss of biodiversity due to habitat destruction
Impact on coastal areas, fisheries
and marine resources
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Sea level rise puts at risk coastal
activities (e.g., aquaculture) &
infrastructure
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60% of the population depends on marine resources
Coral reefs contribute about $1.4 billion per year and
accounted for 10 to 15 percent of total annual fish yield
Only 5-10% of mangroves and coral reefs in excellent
condition
Decrease of up to 46% in live coral cover after the 199798 bleaching event; highly bleached areas coincided with
areas of poverty and dense populations
Loss of biodiversity due to habitat destruction thus
affecting fisheries
Impact on water resources
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SLR increases salinity/undrinkability of
water (evident in nearly 28 percent of
coastal municipalities in Luzon, 20 percent
in the Visayas, and almost 29 percent in
Mindana)
Lead to ↑ 17% in wet season streamflow &
↓ 35% in dry season streamflow in
Pantabangan-Carranglan watershed (Lasco
et al 2006).
Impact on health
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Indicative trend that there is 10% to 58%
association between climate change and health.
Further research needed (1 Nat. Com.).
May impact: under nutrition, cardio-respiratory
diseases, dengue and especially affect
diarrheal diseases and malaria(IPCC4)
In 1998 malaria and other diseases increased
significantly as a consecuence of El Niño
The Philippines’ response so far
to climate change issues
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Policy and legal initiative
Organizational
Partnerships with International
Organizations
Mitigation initiatives
Adaptation initiatives
Response: Policy and legal
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Philippine Strategy for Sustainable
Development (1991)
Rio Earth Summit and Philippine Agenda 21
(1992)
UNFCCC ratification (1994)
First National Communication on Climate
Change (2000)
Kyoto Protocol ratification (2003)
Bio-Fuel Act (2006)
Response: Organizational
PCSD
1992 Chart environment and
sustainable development
NDCC
1978 Policymaker on matters pertaining
to disasters
IACCC 1991 Coordinate CC related policies &
prepare position to UNFCCC
PTFCC 2007 Address and mitigate impact of
CC: energy and deforestation
Response: Mitigation
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2004-2010 MTPDP: participation in clean
development mechanism (CDM) and carbon
market; mitigation in Agribusiness chapter
2004 to 2013 Philippine Energy Plan – new and
renewable energy development and promotion
Clean Development Mechanism – reducing
GHGs through carbon trading:
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14 projects registered as of 10 September 2007
expected to prevent emission of 359,718 tons of
CO2 equivalent per year, that is <1% of annual
CO2 emissions
Bio-Fuel Act (2006)
Response: Adaptation
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2004-2010 MTPDP:
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disaster risk reduction;
adaptation in Agribusiness chapter;
Green Philippine chapter
2007 Albay Declaration
Sparse mention in laws and planning
documents
Fragmented adaptation measures especially in
vulnerable areas where most of the poor live
Poor public awareness of impact of CC
Response: Partnerships
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Activity focus : most on capacity building
at the level of National Government
Strategy focus : most on climate change
mitigation - air pollution reduction in
urban areas; CBFM in rural areas
Sector focus : energy
Area focus : urban areas
Mainstreaming climate change?
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Lasco et al (2007) interviewed 83
policymakers and scientists and found:
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About 95% thought mainstreaming climate
change is important
Nearly 59% thought climate change had not
been mainstreamed
Why?
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Lack of understanding/appreciation of CC,
lack of political will, lack of funding.
Way forward
At the national level:
 Formulate a Climate Change Framework
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Covering both mitigation and adaptation
Oversight sectors agencies, LGUs and
private sector on how to mainstream climate
change in policies, etc
Promote climate resilient policies,
programs, projects and institutional
capacity development
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More adaptation is needed!
Way forward (cont)
At the local level:
 Mainstream climate change in LGUs 5-year
development and investment plans
 Address short planning horizon of local
executives
Other policies:
 Improve the access to and affordability of CC
mitigation and adaptation technologies
 Further mobilize and diversify climate risk
management and financing schemes
Take home message
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The Philippines is a minor emitter but
mayor adaptor
Highly vulnerable to climate change
To date most focus has been on
mitigation especially in the energy and
transport sector
More focus on adaptation is needed
Mabuhay!