Transcript Natural Hazards

Natural
Hazards
Natural Hazard Challenges
Integrated Risk Assessment & Scientific Advice
Uncertainty in forecasting and risk assessment
Hydro-meteorological
Storms
Floods
Droughts,
Wildfires &
Heatwaves
Development
of physicallybased models
Development
of physicallybased models
Development
of physicallybased models
Volcanoes
Earthquakes
Coastal
Erosion &
Flooding
Subsidence
Landslides
Volcanoes
Development
of physicallybased models
Development of
physicallybased models
Development
of physicallybased models
Earthquakes
Tsunami
Development of
physically-based
models
Development
of physicallybased models
Monitoring & survey
Experimental Studies
Monitoring & survey
Experimental Studies
Monitoring & survey
Experimental Studies
Monitoring & survey
Experimental Studies
Monitoring & survey
Experimental Studies
Monitoring & survey
Experimental Studies
Monitoring & survey
Experimental Studies
Monitoring & survey
Experimental Studies
Societal needs
Theme drivers
1.
2.
3.
Natural hazards and their
consequences need to be
forecast effectively.
The communication of
scientific knowledge and
understanding of natural
hazards needs to be
much improved.
Much more emphasis and
financial resources need to
be put into mitigation
strategies.
Theme Priorities
1.
2.
3.
Risks that are likely to increase in frequency and scale
Where new research will do most to reduce risk
Risks with core UK expertise or datasets
Initial Actions
• Fill gaps in current portfolio
• Will be small to start with,
but will ramp-up in size
• Will be prioritised by SISB
on how they stretch the
science
• Are only the initial actions;
it is expected that research
into ALL challenges will be
undertaken over the next
5 years
Framework of Actions
Analysis and communication of uncertainty and risk
PDG
Quantifying
uncertainty in
predictions PG (CS)
Risk mitigation
through targeted
research PDG
Storm risk mitigation PG
Ice melt induced sea level rise PDG (CS, ESS)
Water cycle hazards PG (CS, SUNR)
Analysis and communication of
uncertainty and risk
• Develop a framework for the handling of
uncertainty, risk and complexity across
natural hazard research activities to
enable improved uptake and usage of
NERC science.
• Improve communication of the
distribution, size, uncertainty and
complexity of natural hazards to
decision-makers.
• Generate common involvement
and co-investment of social
scientists and key stakeholders
throughout scientific programmes.
Quantifying uncertainty in predictions of
regional and local climate change
• Develop, test and disseminate
statistical methods to combine
observations and models to quantify
the total uncertainty in predictions of
regional and local climate change,
and climate impacts, especially for
the next few decades.
• Because of their importance for
climate impacts, attention must be
given to predictions of changes in
extreme events.
Risk mitigation through
targeted research
•
Develop a prioritised inventory of
observational requirements, datasets
and models that are required to
minimise casualties and economic
loss.
•
Develop enhanced hazard
and risk forecasting capability.
•
Develop probabilistic hazard assessment
techniques and, with joint vulnerability
assessments, improved risk models.
Case study: Volcanic risk management
Will have generic applicability
Storm Risk
mitigation
•
Improve the ability to predict
hazardous weather associated
with mid-latitude cyclonic
storms by developing
improved representations
of the physical processes
and their interaction.
•
Predict how enhanced greenhouse gas- induced preconditioning of the atmosphere will affect the generation
and evolution of mid-latitude storms.
•
Model vulnerability to storms (arising from precipitation
and wind) at catchment/ coastal management unit scale
through development of high resolution (regional) models.
Ice-melt induced
Sea level rise
•
To predict rates of sea level rise
based on improved modelling of
ice sheet melt processes under
a range of climatic scenarios.
•
To predict impacts (including coastal
flooding, estuarine interactions,
groundwater interactions, erosion), and
uncertainties, at a range of scales (e.g. a
highly urbanised industrial catchment, the
UK and international).
•
Within LWEC, to establish socio-economic
scenarios based on the impacts to enable
improved communication and modelling of
risk for policy-makers
Water cycle hazards
• Quantify and narrow the uncertainty
in predictions for the next few
decades of changes in regional
precipitation, evaporation, soil
moisture, run-off and related water
variables that cause floods and
droughts.
• Narrow the uncertainty in predictions
for the next few decades.
• Make key results available in a form
that decision makers concerned with
adaptation and mitigation can
readily use.
Future activities
Further activities across all natural
hazard challenges are being
considered; it is expected that these
will be developed once opportunities
with the ‘Living with Environmental
Change’ Programme (LWEC) are
clearer and following further
consultation with research users and
providers.
Questions?