Transcript krishna-mri1 - University of Colorado Boulder

Regional Climate Change Scenarios for
India and Implications for Water
Availability Issues
K. Krishna Kumar
CIRES Visiting Fellow, University of Colorado, Boulder
K. Rupa Kumar, N.R. Deshpande, V. Prasanna and
S.K. Patwardhan
Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pune, India
Indian Summer Monsoon Flow
Mean Rainfall Patterns
Data Source: CMAP (1979-2000)
Summer Monsoon
(mm/season)
Annual
(mm/year)
Mean Annual Cycle of
All-India Mean Monthly Rainfall
350
Rainfall (mm/month)
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
All-India Summer Monsoon Rainfall (1871-2001)
(Based on IITM Homogeneous Monthly Rainfall Data Set)
Agriculture Facts







India lives mainly in its villages, 600,000 of them
Roughly 65% of the population is rural
India’s growth in per capita food production during 1979-92 was about
1.6% per annum – the highest in the world during this period
Agriculture provides livelihood to about 65% of the labor force
Agriculture contributes nearly 29% to the GDP
In terms of fertilizer consumption, India ranks 4th in the world
About 43% of India’s geographical area is used for agriculture
Area
under
crop
(mn. hec)
Irrigated
area under
crop
(mn. hec.)
Irrigated
area as %
of total
area under
crops
121
45
37
Rice
43
19
45
Wheat
23
19
84
Nonfoodgrains
61
19
31
Groundnut
9
2
20
Cotton
7
3
33
Sugarcane
4
3
86
183
64
35
IRRIGATION
Crop
Foodgrains
Total
Total Foodgrain
Production in
India and its
Relation to
Indian Rainfall
India’s Water Situation
Proposed River Linkages
Development of Climate Change
Scenarios of Rainfall and Temperature
over the Indian region
Potential Impacts:
• Water Resources
• Agriculture
• Sea Level Rise
and many more sectors…
Development of Future Scenarios of
Rainfall & Temperature over India
• IS92a (8 Coupled Atmos.-Ocean GCMs)
• SRES A2 (5 AOGCMs)
• SRES B2 (5 AOGCMs)
Simulations are generally available for about 200 years
(~1870s till 2100)
IPCC 2001 climate change scenarios
A1: A world of rapid economic growth and
rapid introductions of new and more efficient
technologies
A2: A very heterogeneous world with an
emphasis on family values and local traditions
B1: A world of ‘dematerialization’ and
introduction of clean technologies
B2: A world with an emphasis on local
solutions to economic and environmental
sustainability
5 state-of-the-art climate models run
until 2100 with various emission scenarios
AOGCM simulations used from IPCC-DDC
Using greenhouse gas forced (following IS92A, SRES (A2/B2) scenarios)
simulations of 8 different coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation
models, the rainfall and temperature scenarios for 2021-40; 2041-60;
2061-80; 2081-2100 compared to the baseline period of 1961-90 are
generated for the Indian region. The models used are:
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
Canadian Center for Climate modeling (CCC) model.
Center for Climate Research studies (CCSR) model.
Australia's Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research
Organization (CSIRO) model.
Deutsches Klima Rechen Zentrum (DKRZ) model.
Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) model.
Hadley Centered model.(HadCM3)
Max-planck Institute(MPI) model.
National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) model.
Indian Summer Monsoon Patterns as simulated by 8
coupled AOGCMs
Annual Cycles of All-India mean rainfall in the control
simulations of coupled AOGCMs
Annual Surface Air Temperature Patterns over India
simulated by 8 coupled AOGCMs
AOGCM
Scenarios of allIndia summer
monsoon rainfall
and mean
annual surface
temperature
AOGCM Projected
change in
summer monsoon
rainfall, relative to
1961-90
2041-60
2061-80
AOGCM Projected
change in mean
annual surface air
temperature,
relative to 1961-90
2041-60
2061-80
Future Change in Monsoon Rainfall Variability (IS92a)
High-resolution Climate
Change Scenarios using
Regional Climate Model
(ＨａｄＲＭ２／HadRM3)
GCMs to Regional
Adaptive
Responses :
Modelling Path
The Hadley Centre Regional Climate Models
(HadRM2/HadRM3H/PRECIS)
¥ High-resolution limited area model driven at its lateral and seasurface boundaries by output from HadCM
¥
¥
¥
¥
Formulation identical to HadAM
Grid : 0.44° x 0.44°
One-way nesting
Climate change simulations performed by the Hadley Centre using
HadRM2 for the Indian region
¥ HadRM3H as well as PRECIS installed at IITM; Climate change
simulations and scenario development at an advanced stage by
using PRECIS at IITM
Model Orography
GCM
RCM
HadRM2 scenarios
¥ Two experiments : Control (1990 GHG
Forcing) and IS92a scenario (2041-60)
¥ Each experiment has 20 years data
¥ Monthly and Daily data on various parameters
¥ Regridded data with uniform horizontal grid
spacing
¥ Spatial means for administrative units (states)
Indian
Summer
Monsoon
Simulations by
HadRM2
All-India Mean Monthly Rainfall
10
Observed
CTL
GHG (2041-60)
9
8
Rainfall (mm/day)
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Months
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
State-wise mean monsoon precipitation
change scenarios : HadRM2
50
40
Rainfall Change (% of CTL)
30
20
10
0
-10
-20
-30
-40
-50
JK PB HP HR UP BH WB AS MG TP AR NL MN MZ OR MP RJ GJ MH KK AP TN KL
Indian Annual
Surface
Temperature
Simulations by
HadRM2
State-wise Mean Annual Temperature
Change Scenarios : HadRM2
6
Temperature Change (C)
5
4
3
2
1
0
JK
PB
HP HR
UP BH WB AS
MG TP
AR
NL MN MZ OR MP
RJ
GJ
MH KK
AP
TN
KL
Simulation of Monsoon
Depressions/Cyclonic Storms in
HadRM2 and Likely Future Changes
• Changes in Monsoon Depression/Cyclonic
Storm Tracks in GHG Scenarios.
• Frequency of Depressions/Cyclones.
• Intensity of Storms.
Criteria adopted for the identification
of cyclonic storms
(this includes severe storms and monsoon depressions)
Sea level
Pressure (SLP)
SLP Departure
Local Minimum
Max. Wind
Speed
Duration
> 15 m/s
< -5hPa
At least 2 days
A typical Monsoon Depression as simulated in the regional model
Monsoon
Depression Tracks
as simulated in
HadRM2 control
and GHG
Experiments
Pre and PostMonsoon Cyclonic
Storms and likely
Changes in GHG
Runs
Frequency of monthly cyclonic disturbances (Max intensity in m/s) as
simulated by HadRM2 for 2041-60
Likely Changes in Extreme
Rainfall and TMAX/TMIN
Temperatures in India
NATCOM Workshop, IIM
Ahmedabad, 22.7.2003
HadRM2 Projections (2041-60) of Rainfall Intensity
Change in Annual number of rainy days
Change in rainfall per rainy day
Impact of Climate
Change on the
daily Extreme
Rainfall (cm)
amounts in India
Location of
Stations
Considered in
Extreme
Temperature
Analysis
HadRM2 Projections (2041-60) of Temperature Extremes
Change in extreme Maximum Temperature
Change in extreme Minimum Temperature
River Basins under Study
Change in Monthly Rainfall in GHG Scenarios