Transcript 2007 Massey Energy Postgraduate Conference

2007 Massey Energy Postgraduate Conference
What are the opportunities to assist
China in leapfrogging through
clean energy cooperation?
Patrick Schroeder,
Victoria University of Wellington
Patrick Schroeder
Victoria University of Wellington
2007 Massey University Energy Postgraduate Conference
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2007 Massey Energy Postgraduate Conference
What are the opportunities to
assist China in leapfrogging
through clean energy
cooperation?
Why China?
Leapfrogging – useful
theories
Existing clean energy
Partnerships & relevance
for New Zealand
Patrick Schroeder
Victoria University of Wellington
2007 Massey University Energy Postgraduate Conference
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Why China?
China and Climate Change
China has surpassed the
United States as
largest emitter of CO2.
In 2006 newly added
energy capacity of 105
GW (90 GW through coal)
China accounts for 28%
of the world’s coal
consumption
Coal accounts for about 65%
of China’s energy
consumption, with demand
exceeding 2 billion tons per
year.
Patrick Schroeder
Victoria University of Wellington
2007 Massey University Energy Postgraduate Conference
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Why China?
Embodied Emissions – China’s production, our consumption
About 7 -14% of China's current CO2 emissions are the result of
producing exports for US consumers
According to
World Bank
estimates up to
40% of China’s
emissions are
the result of
export
manufacturing.
US–China trade has increased global CO2 emissions by an estimated
720 million metric tonnes
(Bin & Harriss, 2005)
Patrick Schroeder
Victoria University of Wellington
2007 Massey University Energy Postgraduate Conference
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Why China?
New Consumers enter the stage…Global Consumer Class (GCC)
What is the GCC?
Consumption patterns similar to those in
developed countries (>7000 USD BIP)
Where is the GCC?
1.7 billion members, of these
• 50% in developing countries
• 362 million in China and India, more than in
Europe
In the next years, the GCC will grow most
strongly in developing countries.
China is the fastest growing car market
in the world with a predicted vehicle fleet
of more than 350 million by 2030.
Alone in Beijing 1000 new passenger
cars hit the roads daily, adding to a total
of 2.6 million in 2005.
Golden Resources Shopping Mall, China
(Bentley 2003: Leading consumer classes in countries, 2002)
Patrick Schroeder
Victoria University of Wellington
2007 Massey University Energy Postgraduate Conference
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Why China?
China’s Energy Supply – ‘business as usual’
Patrick Schroeder
Victoria University of Wellington
2007 Massey University Energy Postgraduate Conference
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Why China?
China’s CO2 emissions – ‘business as usual’
Patrick Schroeder
Victoria University of Wellington
2007 Massey University Energy Postgraduate Conference
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Why China?
Strategic Leapfrogging Energy Scenarios – Greenpeace/EREC [R]evolution
Development of primary energy
consumption under the IEA
reference scenario
Patrick Schroeder
Victoria University of Wellington
Development of primary energy
consumption under the alternative
‘leapfrog’ [R]evolution scenario
2007 Massey University Energy Postgraduate Conference
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Why China?
WBCSD Pathways 2050
Patrick Schroeder
Victoria University of Wellington
2007 Massey University Energy Postgraduate Conference
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2007 Massey Energy Postgraduate Conference
What are the opportunities to
assist China in leapfrogging
through clean energy
cooperation?
Why China?
Leapfrogging – useful
theories
Existing clean energy
Partnerships & relevance
for New Zealand
Patrick Schroeder
Victoria University of Wellington
2007 Massey University Energy Postgraduate Conference
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Why leapfrogging?
Leapfrogging into sustainable development
High demand on biosphere per person
Sustainable
Development
‚Developed Countries‘
Human Development Index
‚Developing
Countries‘
High demand on biosphere per person
Low human development
World average biocapacity
available per person
Minimum acceptable level of Human Development
Within carrying
capacity
Low human
development
Ecological Footprint per person
(UNEP/CSCP 2007)
Patrick Schroeder
Victoria University of Wellington
2007 Massey University Energy Postgraduate Conference
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What is leapfrogging?
System Innovation
Improvement of environmental efficiency
‘Radical innovations’ instead of ‘system compliant solutions’
system
innovation
system
redesign
factor 10
or more
system
optimization
factor 5
factor 2
5
10
20
Time horizon (Years)
(Tukker, 2005)
Impact = Population x Affluence per capita x Technical efficiency or production/consumption
Patrick Schroeder
Victoria University of Wellington
2007 Massey University Energy Postgraduate Conference
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What is leapfrogging?
Adaptive niche market management
Dynamic multi-level perspective of technology diffusion process
(Geels, 2002)
Patrick Schroeder
Victoria University of Wellington
2007 Massey University Energy Postgraduate Conference
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What is leapfrogging?
Barriers to environmental technology transfer….
• Un-strategic policies in recipient countries
• Strengthen environmental policies, introduce carbon taxes
• Intellectual property rights
• Strengthen IPR legislation and enforcement
• Lack of information and communication
• Improve communication networks & ICT infrastructure
• Tariff barriers for renewable energy equipment
• Lack of economic incentives for investors
• Special provisions under trade agreements
• Market reforms, tax breaks, feed-in-laws, removal of subsidies
• Institutional & administrative difficulties
• Institutional capacity building, set up intermediaries (MFO)
• Limited access to capital and finance
• Innovative finance mechanisms, ODA, multilateral funds
• Different technology needs of recipient countries
• Weak NSI and ‘absorptive capacity’
• Involve local businesses & NGOs, re-design products
• Lower level of integration, procurement through local suppliers
•Unwillingness of TNCs to transfer clean technologies
• Interest group lobbying (e.g. extraction industries)
• Cultural and language barriers
• ???
Patrick Schroeder
… and solutions
• Promote Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR)
• Educate the public and policy makers
• Overcome Eurocentric worldviews
• ???
Victoria University of Wellington
2007 Massey University Energy Postgraduate Conference
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2007 Massey Energy Postgraduate Conference
What are the opportunities to
assist China in leapfrogging
through clean energy
cooperation?
Why China?
Leapfrogging – useful
theories
Existing clean energy
Partnerships & relevance
for New Zealand
Patrick Schroeder
Victoria University of Wellington
2007 Massey University Energy Postgraduate Conference
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China’s Renewable Energy
Current Status and Market Potential
China produced 370
MW solar cells in 2006
and is now third
largest producer after
Germany and Japan.
China will have
5 GW wind
power capacity
installed by the
end of 2007.
China accounted
for 9% of $70
billion of global
investment in
renewables in
2006.
The Chinese
city Rizhao
wins 2007
World Clean
Energy Award
Patrick Schroeder
Victoria University of Wellington
2007 Massey University Energy Postgraduate Conference
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Existing Partnerships
Overview
Multilateral grant/loan Partnerships
•China World Bank/GEF Renewable Energy Development Project (REDP)
•China World Bank/GEF Renewable Energy Scale-Up Project (CRESP)
• China UNDP/GEF Renewable Energy Commercialization Project
Bilateral (ODA) Partnerships
• EU-China Energy and Environment Program
• GTZ Renewable Energy Projects in China
• Australia-China Bilateral Cooperation on Climate Change
• Sino-Italian Cooperation Programme for Environmental Protection
R&D Partnerships
• China Huaneng Group/FutureGen - Clean Coal and CCS
• US DoE/China - Cooperation on the Beijing 2008 Green Olympics
•China Academy of Science/Energy Research Centre of the Netherlands - wind power research centre
Business Partnerships (joint ventures)
• SolarWorld AG – SunTech Power Holdings
• Xantrex - Shanghai Electric
• Roaring 40s - China Datang Jilin Corporation
Patrick Schroeder
Victoria University of Wellington
2007 Massey University Energy Postgraduate Conference
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Existing Partnerships
Roaring 40s – China Activity
Roaring 40s Renewable Energy Pty Ltd.
(50:50 joint venture between Hydro
Tasmania and CLP Asia Ltd)
•Currently the leading foreign renewable
energy investor in mainland China
• Six 50 MW wind farms commissioned or
under construction
• Planned portfolio of 1000 equity MW of
wind energy assets in China by 2011/12
Patrick Schroeder
Victoria University of Wellington
Shuangliao Windfarm Project
• 49 megawatt wind farm
• CDM project between UK and China
with CERs of 103585
• Capital expenditure: A$79 million
• Turbine capacity: 850 kilowatts
• Datang Jilin Power Generation Co Ltd
• Gamesa Corporacion Tecnologica SA (turbine
supplier)
Enabling partnerships
• Asia Pacific Partnership on Clean
Development and Climate (APP)
• Australia-China Bilateral Cooperation on
Climate Change
• Kyoto protocol - CDM
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Relevance for New Zealand
Opportunities for Government, Business, Civil Society, Academia,…
New Zealand
Government:
• Establish a NZ-China climate change or renewable energy partnership
• Make special provisions for renewable energy technology in the NZ-China FTA
• Make renewable energy a ‘priority sector’ for NZTE engagement in China
• Consider a CDM project involving NZ renewable energy companies and
technology
New Zealand
Businesses:
• Renewable energy businesses to explore opportunities in China (Windflow)
• NZ businesses already involved in China (e.g. Fonterra) to make their
businesses sustainable and transfer clean technologies (including technical
knowledge)
• NZ financial institutions financing renewable energy projects
New Zealand
Civil Society:
• Asia-NZ Foundation to include climate change dialogues and exchanges into
their activities
• Education activities aiming at businesses and the public about Asia’s
environmental issues
New Zealand
Academia:
• Establish joint R&D programmes with Chinese universities and research
institutes
• Establish academic networks through Chinese students in New Zealand
• Open exchange of research results
Patrick Schroeder
Victoria University of Wellington
2007 Massey University Energy Postgraduate Conference
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2007 Massey Energy Postgraduate Conference
Thank you
谢谢您的注意
Patrick Schroeder
Victoria University of Wellington
2007 Massey University Energy Postgraduate Conference
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