Transcript Slide sem título

Interamerican Institute for Global Change Research
Cooperative Research Network
Diagnostics and Prediction of Climate Variability and Human Health
Impacts in the Tropical Americas
Modelling
(System
Dynamics)
84
160
82
150
80
140
78
130
76
120
74
110
72
100
70
90
J
F
M
A
M
J
J
A
S
0
N
D
MONTHS
REL. HUMIDITY
API
Cases of Dengue, Precipitation and Temperature
in Veracruz, Mexico (1995-2002)
Dengue cases
PP mm
Mean temp (Celsius)
20,0
MALARIA
Set/02
Mai/02
Set/01
Mai/01
Set/00
Set/99
Jan/02
0
Jan/01
22,0
Mai/00
100
Jan/00
24,0
Mai/99
200
Jan/99
26,0
Set/98
300
Mai/98
28,0
Jan/98
400
Set/97
30,0
Mai/97
500
Jan/97
32,0
Set/96
600
Mai/96
34,0
Jan/96
700
IPA for Malaria and SOI (Southern Oscillation
Index) in Roraima, Brazil (1980-1985)
IPA
30
Field
Entomology
API x 10000 POPULATION
170
Set/95
Epidemiology
86
Mai/95
Multi-Disciplinary Approach
BOLIVAR, SIFONTES
Jan/95
METHODS:
RESULTS:
• Characterization of a natural decrease in malaria
incidence during ENSO years in northern Amazonia,
Brazil.
• Development of a conceptual model on the social
vulnerability of the population to the health impacts of
climate variability in tropical America.
• Dengue epidemics have a pronounced seasonality
(peaking in the later half of the year) in the Caribbean
and are more probable in an El Niño or El Niño + 1 year.
There appears to be a close association of the epidemic
with temperature.
• Temperature strongly affects the life cycle of An.
albimanus, the main malaria vector in Colombia.
• Modeling efforts confirm the importance of temperature in
explaining malaria incidence in Colombia.
• Preliminary analysis (vector control variables not
included) show an association precipitation/malaria
stronger than for temperature in Mexico.
• Important outbreaks of dengue fever were observed
during the 1997-1998 ENSO in Mexico.
• Positive correlation of malaria with mean relative humidity
and monthly minimum temperature in Venezuela.
RELATIVE HUMIDITY (%)
OBJECTIVES:
• Research: Conduct research, both empirical and
conceptual, aimed at generating knowledge about
climate/health associations and appropriate tools for data
analysis, with a focus on malaria and dengue.
• Network building: a) strengthen the flow of information
about the impact of climatic variability on human health in
the Tropical Americas; b) develop dialogue about
interdisciplinary research issues with other organizations
working in public health, ecology, climatology and social
science; c) build regional capacity to disseminate and
utilize effectively data on climate prediction and health.
• Training: a) increase opportunities for Latin American
nationals for training in climate and health research; b)
conduct regional workshops an climate and health in the
Tropical Americas.
Relative Humidity and Malaria API,
RELATIVE HUM IDITY AND API (199 3-220 1)
Sifontes,
Bolivar, Venezuela (1993-2001)
4
SOI
2
25
Conceptual Model for Social Vulnerability to Health
Impacts of Climate Events
0
20
-2
15
-4
Population
Population
Prospective
Set/85
Mai/85
Jan/85
Set/84
Mai/84
Jan/84
Set/83
Mai/83
Jan/83
Set/82
Mai/82
Jan/82
Set/81
0,180
30,0
29,5
sex
0,140
physical capacity
0,120
29,0
0,100
28,5
0,080
0,060
T [°C]
ethnicity
Risk
Risk
Perception
Perception
28,0
0,040
27,5
income
Individual Information Community Medical
Factors
and Risk
Organization Care
Perception
Institutional
Preparedness
VULNERABILITY
VULNERABILITY
political power
cultural values
23/11/98
30/08/98
06/06/98
13/03/98
18/12/97
24/09/97
01/07/97
07/04/97
12/01/97
19/10/96
26/07/96
02/05/96
07/02/96
14/11/95
21/08/95
28/05/95
04/03/95
27,0
09/12/94
0,000
15/09/94
education
0,020
22/06/94
(Brazil, Mexico and
Jamaica)
(2000/2004)
leisure
0,160
Dengue Fever
Analysis
work
29/03/94
Retrospective
Proximate
Drivers
habitation
Location
in space
-10
age
Individual
Individual
Factors
Factors
Response
Response
0
03/01/94
Climate–Sensitive
Diseases
Morbidity
Morbidity
and
and
Mortality
Mortality
sanitation
Malaria incidence
Malaria
(Brazil, Colombia,
Venezuela and
Mexico)
Demographic
Demographic
Profile
Profile
Type and
quality of
services
-8
Mai/81
Exposure
Exposure
Global
Warming
transportation
Jan/81
Infrastructure
Infrastructure
5
Set/80
Droughts
-6
Characteristics of the environment
Mai/80
Geographical
Geographical
Situation
Situation
Jan/80
Floods
Climatic
Climatic
Event
Event
(“Hazard”)
(“Hazard”)
10
Ultimate Drivers
Vulnerability
Analysis
Storms
Date [DD/MM/YY]
IFEP
Main linkages and
feedbacks between diverse
components of the
mathematical model.
Prev
T [°C]
Temperature x Malaria in Colombia.
Time series of model results for base
scenario.
Initial Page of Web Site
PUBLICATIONS:
PARTICIPATING COUNTRIES / INSTITUTIONS:
• BRAZIL: FIOCRUZ
• USA: IRI, NOAA, SCS, Univ. of Florida, Univ. of
Colorado
• VENEZUELA: Instituto de Altos Estudios en Salud
Pública
• COLOMBIA: Univ. Nacional de Colombia, Medellín
• MEXICO: Inst. de Salud, Ambiente y Trabajo
• JAMAICA: Univ. West Indies, Mona
• 27 Investigators.
• Students: 4 Doctoral; 7 Master; 5 Undergraduate.
ASSOCIATED PROJECTS:
• Assessment of the Vulnerability of the Brazilian Population to the
Health Impacts of Climate Change (Oswaldo Cruz Foundation,
funded by the Brazilian Ministry of Science and Technology).
• The Threat of Dengue Fever – Assessment of Impacts and
Adaptation to Climate Change in Human Health in the Caribbean
(University of West Indies, funded by GEF/UNEP).
Studying mosquito breeding sites at Nuqui,
Colombia.
• ARON JL; CORVALAN CF; PHILIPPEAUX H (Eds.). 2002. Climate
Variability and Change and their Health Effects in the Caribbean:
Information for Adaptation Planning in the Health Sector. Conference
May 21-22, 2002, Workshop May 23-25, 2002, St. Philip, Barbados,
West Indies. WHO/SDE/PHE/02.01, WHO, Geneva (in press).
• CHEN AA, TAYLOR MA. 2002. Investigating the link between
Caribbean early season rainfall and the El Niño + 1 year. Int Journal of
Climatology, 22: 87-106.
• CONFALONIERI UEC. 2003. Climate Variability, Social Vulnerability
and Human Health in Brazil. Proc. V Brazilian Congress on
Geographic Climatology (in press).
• DIAZ HF; KOVATS RS; MCMICHAEL AJ; NICHOLLS N. 2001. Climate
and human health linkages on multiple timescales. In: History and
Climate: Memories of the Future? (Jones PD, Davies TD, Ogilvie AEJ,
Briffa KR, eds.), Kluwer Academic/Plenum Publishers, New York, pp.
267-289.
• NOBRE AA; LOPES HF. 2002. Spatial analysis of the relationships
between malaria and rainfall in the State of Pará. First National Symp.
Probability and Statistics, A. Lindóia, Brazil, July 2002 (in press).
• POVEDA G; ROJAS W; VÉLEZ ID; QUIÑONES M; MANTILLA RI;
RUIZ D; ZULUAGA J; RUA G. 2001. Coupling between Annual and
ENSO timescales in the Malaria-Climate association in Colombia.
Environmental Health Perspectives, 109: 489-493.
• RUA G; QUIÑONES ML; ZULUAGA JS; VELEZ ID; POVEDA G;
ROJAS W; RUIZ D; MANTILLA R. 2002. El Niño/Southern Oscillation
(ENSO) related to malaria transmission, density and parity of
Anopheles albimanus and Anopheles darlingi in two areas in
Colombia. Medical and Veterinary Entomology (in press).