Transcript b666813c3412046cb20c43f38f3c22db

Toronto’s Future Weather
and Climate Drivers Study
Request for Proposal
Contract Start Date
Completion Anticipated
January 16, 2009
June 11, 2009
August 30, 2010
External Work Awarded to SENES Consultants Ltd
By City of Toronto – Toronto Environment Office
At Cost of $250,000
Why We Study?
 If climate is changing – we need to know by how
much and how soon, especially in respect to the
extremes of weather.
 IPCC Model outputs (GCM & RCM) do not include
Great Lakes adequately AND cannot operate at
resolution levels much smaller than ½ of Ontario
 City needs resolution capable of “seeing” events
such as the Finch Avenue Storm (Aug 19, 2005)
Rainfall amounts up to 175 mm recorded in Yonge/Steeles area
103 mm recorded in 1 hour at Environment Canada Downsview
BUT only 41.4 mm at Toronto Pearson, 31.8 mm at Toronto City
Estimated insured losses from August 19 storms: $500M
Finch Avenue
Toronto: August 19, 2005
Rainfall amounts up to 175 mm recorded in Yonge/Steeles area
103 mm recorded in 1 hour at Environment Canada Downsview
BUT only 41.4 mm at Toronto Pearson, 31.8 mm at Toronto City
Estimated insured losses from August 19 storms: $500M
Basic Concepts Behind The Study
 We want to understand what forces & factors
“drive” Toronto’s weather – now.
 We want to see how these “drivers” change in
future [based on IPCC based (GCM & RCM)
model output]
 We want to understand what future forces &
factors will “drive” Toronto’s future weather and
what the weather extremes will be – soon enough
for us to adapt to such changes ahead of time.
How We Study? ….. (part 1)
 Run Weather Research Forecast Model (WRF/ FRESH) “to
match” Toronto’s weather of multiple extremes (2000 – 2009)
 Identify Toronto’s Cause & Effect (C&E) “Weather Drivers”
 Run IPCC (Hadley Centre) Regional Circulation Models
(RCM – Hadley 3) for area including Toronto for 2050’s and
2070’s (under IPCC economic fossil use rates & population
scenarios A2 & A1B) … ie the IPCC “Climate Drivers”
 Identify Changes in Toronto’s C&E “Weather Drivers” – link to
expectations of changes of magnitude, frequency and
probability of future events
How We Study? ….. (part 2)
 Use Hadley Centre RCM output to modify the
“Cause & Effect Weather Drivers” for Toronto and
Re-Run the 1990’s WRF/ FRESH model for
2050’s and 2070’s for Toronto with the future
(Hadley 3) time period inputs
 Extract Means, Standard Deviations and Extremes
(Maximums and Minimums) of all parameters (eg
rainfall, heat, … and indices)
What Do We Hope To Get? … (part 1)
 Magnitude, Frequency and Probability of Current
& Future Significant Weather Events AND the
Degree of Certainty of Such Predictions
– EG …. Intense Rainfalls (like Finch Ave., Aug 19, 2005)
…. Heat Waves …. Freeze-Thaw Cycles …. Winds ….
Snowstorms …. Droughts …. etc etc (180 parameters
in all)
– NB …. We will not “see” exactly where and when any
such event will occur – but we do hope to “see” the
likelihood within an area and timeframe of all
occurrences by their predicted severity
What Do We Hope To Get? … (part 2)
 Documentation from Consultants as
Scientifically Defensible & Readily
Understandable Reports
 PLUS Documents from City Staff as Publicly
Understandable & Illustrated Reports and
Overview Summaries
What Use Will It All Be ?
 For Climate Adaptation by City Divisions
and by Others …. (including for example)
– Transportation Services
– Shelter, Support & Housing
– Toronto Water
 To Find the Best Balance and Budget Point
Between Over Building and Under Preparing
for Future Events
Early Results
 More problems experienced than even we anticipated (data
logistics, file matching, etc)
 Comparison of Model Output w Monitor Data for 1999-2008
– Very Close Match for 179 of 180 parameters c.f. Model vs Monitor
(Precipitation = our biggest issue, but this is not a surprise)
– But even Aug 19 Storm located perfectly
– Are our intensity issues  from model issues or monitor issues?
 Project = On Track, On Time & On Budget
 Full Results scheduled for early Summer 2010
 Final Product scheduled for late Summer 2010
WRF/FRESH “matches” Finch Ave
Storm of August 19th ,2005
Post Study Next Steps
 Outcomes = Purpose & Application (as above)
 BUT (1) Does our Output truly meet Input needs of Future
Climate Adaptation and Risk Assessment?
 BUT (2) Is intended further evaluation & modification (as per 5
Year Plan) necessary, do-able and affordable?
– Original Intent was to get results PLUS determine:
– Was approach fully satisfactory for needs?
– If not, what do we need to do? And, can we do it?
–
 And does our acquired ability and information meet the City’s
and the Community’s present and future needs ?
Mitigation and Adaptation
Responses to Climate Change
in the City of Toronto
Christopher Llewelyn Morgan
Toronto Environment Office
City of Toronto
April 15th, 2010
OUTLINE
1. The Basic Science of Climate Change
2. Modelling, Monitoring & Analysis
3. What is Changing? a) Global b) Toronto
4. What are the Consequences?
5. Policies and Actions
6. Mitigation Responses
7. Adaptation Responses
8. Conclusions and Solutions
Changed Forces
 Changed Consequences
 Longer Heat Waves  more A/C
 Stronger Winds  more tree blow down
 (which can also take out residential hydro!)
 Longer Growing Season (& pests survive)
 More Droughts  loss of habitat and species
 More Frequent & More Intense Rain Events 
more wash outs, more basements flooded
 Changed Tracks of Hurricanes & Tornadoes 
More Flooding and Property Damage
Changed Resistances
 Changed Consequences
 Infrastructure Has Become Very Old
 Pay me now or pay more later ?
 Codes & Standards Are Becoming Outdated
 Bridges Too Low & Culverts Too Small
 Rail Lines Need Bigger Gaps
 Houses & Towers & Wind Standards ?
 Natural Habitat Stressed
 Street Trees & Local Transmission Lines
 Tree Root Zones Impeded by Pipes & Wires
Toronto: August 19, 2005
Ontario’s Most Costly Weather
Disaster
Rainfall amounts up to 175 mm recorded in Yonge/Steeles area
103 mm recorded in 1 hour at Environment Canada Downsview
BUT only 41.4 mm at Toronto Pearson, 31.8 mm at Toronto City
Estimated insured losses from August 19 storms: $500M
Risks to Various Infrastructure Types from Changing
Climate and Weather Extremes (Frequencies/Intensities)
STRUCTURES
Ice Storms
and Wet
Snow
Rainfall
Intensity &
Accum.
Extreme
Winds
Summer
Storms &
Tornadoes
Extreme
Snowpack
Power
Transmission
(structures/lines)
FAILURE
ice + wind
ADDITIVE
FAILURE
FAILURE
SOME
Power
Distribution
(structures/lines)
FAILURE
ice + wind
ADDITIVE
FAILURE
FAILURE
SOME
Communication
(structures/lines)
FAILURE
ice + wind
LAND LINES
FAILURE
FAILURE
SOME
DRAINAGE &
EROSION
OPERATION
OPERATION
Roads, Bridges
FAILURE
RISK
& FAILURE
RISK
& FAILURE
RISK
Buildings
WET SNOW
DRAINAGE &
FAILURE
FAILURE
FAILURE
SERVICE &
MATERIAL
FAILURE
CONCLUSIONS





Accelerated Climate Change due to Human
Activities is a Scientific and Serious Truth
Climate Means & Extremes Will Change
Weather Forces + Weakening Resistances
 Expensive Consequences
Local Actions Can Help the Global Problem
Significant and Measurable Integrated Local
MANAGEMENT Actions are Needed!!
SOLUTIONS
 Manage Mitigation
– “Change is in the Air” -- Targets (80% by 50)
 Manage Adaptation
– “Ahead of the Storm” -- Adapt Before It Hurts
 Ongoing Dynamic Assessment of Stress &
Responses [Policies & Actions]
 Employ Long Term Thinking
 Employ Lasting Forceful Resolution
– No More Bridges Too Low
The Final Word / Equation
E=
E=
M=
C1 =
C2 =
C3 =
3
MC
Environment
Management
Basic Continental Climate
Climate Change
Urban Heat Island Climate
Plus
C4 ? = Catastrophism [vs established Uniformitism] ?