Transcript Competition for natural resources: The case of water

Competition for natural resources
The case of water
2nd FAO Consultation
on bioenergy and food security
Rome, 5-6 February 2008
Jean-Marc Faurès
FAO Land and Water Division
Water and agriculture
today
Irrigation expansion 1950-2000
► Irrigation
key element of Green Revolution
“tripod”: water, fertilizers, seeds:
 Need for rapid food production increase
 Massive investments in irrigation (particularly in
Asia)
 Investment peak in late 1970s
 Focus on large scale, public, surface irrigation
schemes
Investments in irrigation
1960-2005
2,500
320
280
Irrigation (million hectares)
240
200
1,500
160
Food price index (1990=100)
1,000
120
WB lending (1990 constant price)
80
500
40
0
2005
2000
1995
1990
1985
1980
1975
1970
1965
0
1960
Million US$
2,000
Irrigation in the world today
► 275
Million hectares
► 70% of all freshwater appropriation
► 20% of cultivated land
 40% of agricultural production
 60% of cereal production
Where irrigation matters
The impact
Increased water withdrawal
Environmental water stress
Source: Comprehensive Assessment of water management in agriculture, based
on a study by IWMI, WRI, Kassel University, CA RR #2, 2007
The loss of biodiversity
Main driving forces for AWU
► Demography
 Population growth (although slowing down)
 Urbanisation and changes in diet preferences
► Economic
growth
 Trade and globalisation
► accelerated
► Increasing
pressure on water
concern for environmental sustainability
 Competition for water (incl. other sectors)
 Pollution (see agriculture in MA)
► Climate
change
► Bioenergy ?
Projections for 2030
► Without
accounting for CC and biofuels:
 Irrigated production to increase by 36%
 Irrigated area to increase by 20%
 Irrigated water requirements to increase by 1214%
 Source: AT2030 and FAO-NRLW estimates, refers to developing countries only
Which water are we talking about ?
► “Blue
water”: freshwater from rivers,
aquifers and lakes:
  45,000 km3/yr, 12,500 “available”
  irrigated agriculture
► “Green
water”: rainwater stored in the soil
and available for biomass production:
  75,000 km3/yr
  rainfed agriculture
Dependency
on “green” and “blue” water
787
219
654
239
1692
907
1505
Areas in green: agriculture
mainly under rainfed
Areas in blue: agriculture
mainly under irrigation
Circles depict total crop
depletion
August 2006
1080
114
“Blue” and “green” water in the
water cycle
What is the potential ?
Climate change
Impact on runoff
Source: IPCC report on water, foprthcoming
Projected impacts of climate change
0°C
Food
Water
Global temperature change (relative to pre-industrial)
1°C
2°C
3°C
4°C
5°C
Falling crop yields in many areas, particularly
developing regions
Falling yields in many
Possible rising yields in
developed regions
some high latitude regions
Small mountain glaciers
disappear – water
supplies threatened in
several areas
Significant decreases in water
availability in many areas, including
Mediterranean and Southern Africa
Sea level rise threatens
major cities
Ecosystems
Extensive Damage
to Coral Reefs
Rising number of species face extinction
Extreme
Rising intensity of storms, forest fires, droughts, flooding and heat waves
Weather
Events
Risk of Abrupt and
Increasing risk of dangerous feedbacks and
Major Irreversible
abrupt, large-scale shifts in the climate system
Changes
Asia: Major issues: Water availability & flooding
Flooding/melting of glaciers
► Coastal areas, esp. megadelta regions in S/E/SE-Asia at greatest risk due
to flooding
► Example 1 m SLR Mekong River delta  50% loss of mangrove area,
~100,000 ha of arable land becoming salt marsh; floods affecting 3.5-5
million people
► Decay of glaciers: e.g. Tibetan Plateau; Himalayan glaciers to 1/5 by
2030s
↑Water stress
► 0.12-1.2 billion people affected by 2020s/2050s
► AG irrigation demand +10% in arid/semi-arid E-Asia for ↑temp +1°C
► Crop yields up to 20% in E/SE-East Asia, ↓crop yield up to 30% in C/SAsia by 2050s; due to rapid population growth risk of hunger remains high
in several countries
► Ex: India – ↓freshwater availability by 47% in 2025 due to CC and pop.
growth, ↑intense rain and frequent flash floods during monsoon  more
surface runoff, less groundwater recharge -> need for further storage
(dams)
Biofuels
Trends in biofuel production
Source: Earth Trends 2007 Earth Policy Institute
Corn-based ethanol
Sugarcane-based ethanol
Sugar: the price link
"Sweet Substitutes"
Crude oil prices above 30 US$/bbl drive world sugar prices
80
12.0
Crude oil (spot WTI)
Sugar (NYMEX-11)
10.0
8.0
50
40
6.0
30
4.0
20
2.0
10
06
-2
00
09 5
-2
00
5
01
-2
00
5
07
-2
00
4
01
-2
00
4
0.0
01
-2
00
3
0
Data: Nymex and EIA, J. Schmidhuber (2005)
raw sugar prices in cts/lb
60
01
-2
00
2
Crude oil prices in US$/bbl
70
Water requirements of biofuels
Evapotranspiration
in litre / litre
fuel
(indicative)
Irrigation water
withdrawn in
litre / litre
fuel
(indicative)
crop:
fuel product:
(energy density:
Bio-diesel 35 MJ/l
Ethanol 20 MJ/l)
Sugar cane
Ethanol
(from sugar)
6000
I/R
2000
1333
Sugar beet
Ethanol
(from sugar)
7000
I/R
786
571
Cassava
Ethanol
(from starch)
4000
R
2250
-
Maize
Ethanol
(from starch)
3500
I/R
1357
857
Oil palm
Bio-diesel
5500
R
2364
-
Rapeseed /
Mustard Bio-diesel
1200
R
3333
-
400
R
10000
-
Soybean
Bio-diesel
Source: Hoogeveen, FAO-NRLW
annual obtainable
yield in l/ha
(indicative):
I/R
A few numbers
► Water
needed to produce:
 1 kilo of wheat: 1 000 litres
 1 kilo of meat (beef): 15 000 litres
► Daily
water requirements per person:
 Drinking: 2-3 litres
 Domestic needs: 20–300 litres
 Food: 2 000-3 000 litres
► with
2 500 litres of water, we can produce:
 food for one person for one day
 1 litre of biofuel
Biofuel and water use (2005)
Source: de Fraiture, IWMI, 2007
Projections for water demand - 2030
Source: de Fraiture, IWMI, 2007
Impacts of biofuels
► Rainfed
agriculture:
 Pressure on land resources
► Irrigated
agriculture:
 Pressure on water resources
NAS report on water and biofuels in
the United States (2007):
►
►
Currently, biofuels are a marginal additional stress on water
supplies at the regional to local scale. However, significant
acceleration of biofuels production could cause much
greater water quantity problems depending on where the
crops are grown. Growing biofuel crops in areas requiring
additional irrigation water from already depleted aquifers is
a major concern.
The growth of biofuels in the United States has probably
already affected water quality because of the large amount
of N and P required to produce corn. If projected future
increases in the use of corn for ethanol production do
occur, the increase in harm to water quality could be
considerable.
Conclusions
►
►
►
►
►
World water system already under heavy stress due to
agriculture and other uses
Agriculture main water user (70%)
Future water demand for agriculture in the rise
Climate change likely to result in increased demand for
irrigated water
Bioenergy likely to add to pressure on water:
 depending on type of crop
 depending on farming system: rainfed/irrigated
 depending on region
►
►
China, India, already facing serious water constraints
Keep an eye on sugarcane
THANK YOU