Transcript Rafael Miranda - Lykourezos Law Offices

Challenges of the current
European Energy Policy
Rafael Miranda
CEO of Endesa
President of Eurelectric
Athens, 22th of May of 2008
The global energy scenario will face
profound change
The world's population will grow
to 8 billion in 2030
Global primary energy
consumption will increase by
55% over the next 25 years
China and India will increase
their primary energy demand by
125%, equal to 45% of
worldwide growth
Primary energy consumption (Mtoe)
+55%
11.429
+125%
5.018
2.279
2005
World
Source:
17.721
2030
China
India
World Energy Outlook 2007 (IEA)
2
The energy industry will need a huge
investment effort in the future
2006-2030 investments in
the energy industry:
Electricity industry will
represent 53% (US$ 11,560
billion) of total investments.
Electricity sector will gain
ground versus other energy
uses.
US$ 21.936 billion
3%
25%
15% (US$ 1,728 billion) is
earmarked for Europe.
53%
19%
Oil
Source:
Coal
Electricity
Gas
In the next 25 years new
global installed capacity will
be equivalent to the one
commissioned on the last 125
years.
World Energy Outlook 2007 (IEA)
3
The combat on climate change will be a
relevant driver in the energy industry
IPCC(*) :”Most of the observed increase in global average
temperatures since the mid-20th century is very likely due to the
observed increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations”
Global population affected by
global warming in 2080
If the European target of a 2ºC
rise in temperatures is reached,
by 2080:
2,7 billion people will be
exposed to the risks of
drought, 250M to malaria and
30M to hunger.
Source: Intergovernmental panel on climate change (ONU)
4
Heavy dependence on fossil fuels
Global primary energy mix
WEO 2030
2005
Baseline
Scenario
Coal
25%
28%
23%
Oil
35%
32%
31%
Natural gas
21%
22%
22%
Renewables
11%
11%
14%
Nuclear
6%
5%
7%
Hydro
2%
2%
3%
Total
100%
100%
100%
Fossil fuels will
remain as the
dominant
technology for
decades
Alternative
Scenario
Renewables will
grow significantly in
absolute terms
(2.800-3.500 TWh in
2030)
Baseline Scenario: No inclusion of Government new energy policies
Alternative Scenario: Inclusion of additional measures from Governments to face SoS and Climate Change Issues. 450
millions of particles in the atmosphere
Source: World Energy Outlook 2007 (IEA)
5
Commodity prices would be driven
in the future by its scarcity
Reserves (in years of consumption) and
main countries where they are located
Oil
Natural Gas
Coal
41 years
(down from
41 years in 1996)
63 years
(down from
66 years in 1996)
147 years
(down from
224 years in 1996)
Saudi Arabia, Iran, Iraq,
Kuwait and Venezuela
+319%
Russia, Iran, Qatar,
Saudi Arabia and A.U.E.
+90%
U.S.A., Russia, China,
India and Australia
+143%
Energy commodities are scarce
and mainly located in geopolitically
unstable countries…
Sources: EIA y BP Statistical Energy Review.
Price increases
(dic03 vs. May08)
… and its prices
have risen
sharply
6
In this challenging global environment, the EU has
set the guidelines of its energy policy
Strategic European Energy Review 2007 (SEER)
2009
A real pan-European energy market
2015
12 fossil-fuel plants with CCS
2020
20% of renewables in primary energy mix
20% CO2 emissions reduction in the EU (vs
1990), up to 30% reduction may be set
20% increase in energy efficiency
2050
50% CO2 emissions reduction by 2050 (vs 1990)
Developments
in the Green
Package
7
EU is leading the combat on climate change
Europe has set an
ambitious emission
reduction targets …
EU Emissions Targets
2020
2020
… however, climate change is a global
problem where Europe's impact is not
significantly relevant
World CO2 Emissions
(MtCO2)
41.905
+57%
-20% or -30%
(vs. 1990)
26.620
(15.285)
-50%
(vs. 1990)
2005
Source:
World Energy Outlook 2007 (IEA)
% World CO2
Emissions
2005
2030
China
19%
27%
USA
22%
16%
Europe
15%
10%
Others
44%
47%
2030
8
The EU is clearly committed to achieve its emission
target through a further development of renewables
EU Renewables policy and breakdow
by country 2020
21,8
1. Italy
1,3
13,7
2. UK
23%
18%
5,8
6. Germany
12,2
Average UE
11,5
8,5
20%
8. Spain
11,3
8,7
20%
11,1
9. Greece
21. Poland
Renewable
effort
2006-2020
X,X
7,2
7,8
18%
6,9
15%
Renewables Renewables
a 2005
2020
+
=
X,X
General characteristics:
• Increase of 5.5% for all + individual additional based
on the GDP of the country
15%
10,3
12,7
5. France
5,2
27%
X,X%
Nota: the EU considers that renewable energy includes wind, solar,
hydro, biomass, but do not include cogeneration. Only main countries
represented.
• No consider historical effort and potential of
renewable is not consider
• 10% of biofuels in transport in 2020
• “National Action Plan” before march 2010
Industry views of the European
energy policy:
• Main effort made by the electricity sector
• Electricity prices will increase
• Incentives for renewables should be market based
• Homogeneous European policy in renewables is
needed.
9
Renewables growth have significant benefits for
Europe
Renewables evolution in Europe
(ex-hydro) 2030 (TWh)
Impacts of renewables to the
European Industry:
850
14
9
58
• No CO2 emissions
• No contribution to the acid rain

• Reduce external dependency
• Acomplishment of Kioto targets
• Create jobs
• Tech development that can benefit


• Some contributes with distributed

• High volatility
• Backup power needed
• Need to be subsidized

formation
429
170
17
1990
78
84
2005
Biomass and waste
Wind
Geothermal
Solar
Tide and wave
Source:
World Energy Outlook 2007 (IEA)
552
259
146
2012
217
trade
2030
generation to the electrical system





10
A balanced energy policy is required
Sustainability
Energy
efficiency
Diversification of
technologies
Energy policy
Competition
Security
of supply
Minimising impact on the
environment and climate
change
Development of
interconnections
More R&D
investment
Agreements
with energy
commodities
producers
Market
development
11
L WEST
RN
LAND
WEST
L
L EAST
Moving towards a single European market will be crucial
The EU ultimate
objective is to create
a single electricity
market
Regional markets could
be a necessary
interim step
To achieve an efficient and competitive single market it
is key to define an homogeneous and stable regulation
based on market mechanisms
12
All generation technologies must be considered
Wind
energy
Natural
gas
Coal
Energy
dependency
Security of
supply
Emissions
Price
volatility
Reserves
Cost
Nuclear
energy
No single technology meets all these
goals, but combined provide an
optimal solution
13
To solve the energy quiz it will be necessary
the development of new technologies
2010
 Offshore wind
 3G nuclear
fission
 Hybrid cars
 1G Biofuels
 Subsidized solar
 Smart meters
2020







2030
CCS technologies
4G nuclear fission
Electric cars
2G Biofuels
Wave energy
Competitive solar
Smart Grids
2040
2050
Towards a
cero-emission
and efficient
energy
 Nuclear fusion
 Hydrogen car
and turbine
 Unknown
technologies
nowadays
14
The EU should promote energy efficiency more actively
Energy intensity
(base 100: EU15 2004)
Primary energy intensity
(kpte / M€)
220%
200%
180%
160%
140%
120%
100%
80%
60%
40%
1994
EU25
2004
EU15
USA
JAP
Europe and Japan are
economic regions with the high
levels of energy efficiency…
… however Europe still
has significant room for
improvement
15
Summary
The European Union is leading the combat on climate
change. A critical levers will be the development of
renewables
Renewables have significant benefits for both the
European electricity system and the European economy,
with some “cons” that must be offset
Europe should not leave aside the other main drivers of
a balanced energy policy: Security of Supply and
Competitiveness
16
Challenges of the current
European Energy Policy
Rafael Miranda
CEO of Endesa
President of Eurelectric
Athens, 22th of May of 2008