Transcript Spawning stock biomass (SSB) of Norwegian spring

2. Fish and climate
The forecasts are based on models
The famous "hockey stick"
IPCC, 2001
Climate Gate?
“.. a new form of colonialism...The white wealthy western world telling
1.6 billion people in developing world -- predominantly of color -- that
they have to have their economies managed, their energy managed all
because of climate fears."
http://joannenova.com.au/2009/12/newscientist-becomes-non-scientist/
http://www.weeklystandard.com/a
rticles/denial
THE world’s leading climate
change body has been
accused of losing
credibility after a damning
report into its research
practices.
A high-level inquiry by the
InterAcademy Council (IAC)
into the Intergovernmental
Panel on Climate Change
found there was “little
evidence” for its claims about
global warming.
It also said the panel had
emphasised the negative
impacts of climate change
and made “substantive
findings” based on little proof.
http://www.climatedepot.com/
Global temperature trends:
NASA, 1998
for the last 1,000 years …
for the last 10,000 years …
It seems as if temperatures
have always been changing!
for the last 1,000,000 years …
NIPCC
Non-governmental
International
Panel on
Climate
Change
March 2008
Available on line from
www.heartland.org
Follow the debate: See
http://www.climatedepot.com/
Environmental
changes
What are the fishery,
environmental, and trophic
effects in historical data?
Can we use ‘short-term’
predictions from multiple
regression models?
Two kind of predictions:
•What happens when?
•What happens if?
IPCC 2001, Box 6-1
Normalised catches of 11
commercial fish species
(accounting for about
40% of the world’s marine
catch) have fluctuated
together over the
20th century.
Catches also show a
strong relationship with
the Atmospheric
Circulation Index (ACI).
ACI is a large-scale,
multi-decadal climatic
index based on the
direction of atmospheric
air mass transfer.
Adapted from Klyashtorin
(2001)
IGBP Science Series,“Marine Ecosystems and Global Change http://ioc.unesco.org
Global ecosystem
Modified from Karl et al. (2003)
Includes
atmosphere,
lithosphere
biosphere
Artist: Glynn Gorick
Iverson (1990)
All biological production in the sea depends on plankton
Regional Climatology Affects Ecosystems
The Northern Atlantic
Oscillation index
(NAO)
The Northern Atlantic Oscillation
NAO Index
1860
1880
1900
1920
1940
1960
1980
The Atlantic Multidecal Oscillations (AMO)
Sutton and Hodson(2005)
2000
North sea changes
Trends in the abundance of Calanus finmarchicus from Continuous Plankton
Recorder Survey (CPR) data. Annual mean biomass (mg C m-3) in the upper 10m,
and as a proportion of the biomass of species representing all omnivorous
zooplankton. http://www.igbp.kva.se/documents/recources/NL_47.pdf
Changes in species composition between a
cold water and warm water temperate
copepod species in the North sea.
Climate (NAO) influence biology
r2 = 0.58
Relationship between annual abundance of Calanus finmarchicus from CPR
Surveys and the winter NAO index 1958-1955 in the North Sea. Blue
triangles are from when the relationship broke down in the late 1990s.
Redrawn in Skjoldal (2004) after Reid and Beaugrand (2002)
Spawning stock biomass (SSB) of Norwegian
spring-spawning herring and the long termaveraged temperature (the AMO signal)
Toresen og Østvedt (2000)
El Niño-Southern Oscillation
Historical sea surface temperature index (ENSO)
El Niño and La Niña events are characterized by warmer or cooler than
average sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific. They are also
associated with changes in wind, pressure, and rainfall patterns. Once
developed, El Niño and La Niña events are known to shift the seasonal
temperature and precipitation patterns in many different regions of the world,
even ones that are distant from the equatorial Pacific Ocean.
For publications on ENSO and fisheries see:
http://www.coaps.fsu.edu/lib/elninobib/fisheries/
El Niño
Comparison of El Niño conditions (left) with normal conditions (right).
http://coastwatch.noaa.gov/images/Sea_Surface_Temperature.ppt
Pacific Decadal Oscillations (PDO) index and modeled primary production
(integrated from the surface to 120m) between 1962 and 2000. During the
negative PDO, before 1978, the equatorial Pacific was cooler and primary
productivity was higher. Throughout the 1980s and 1990s, the PDO was in
the positive phase and, therefore, productivity in general was lower.
http://www.ncsu.edu/kenan/ncsi/Docs/Presentations/Duke2.ppt
Climate change
Time series of departures from the 1961 to 1990 base period for an annual
mean global temperature of 14.0°C (bars) and for a carbon dioxide mean of
334 ppmv (solid curve) during the base period. From Karl et al. (2003)
Present level
Present level
Historical data examined
shows changes in the
ocean heat content (to
depths of 3000 m) to be
slowly increasing with
substantial decadal time
scale variations related to
climate variability.
Levitus et al (Science, 1999)
Cod Recruitment and Temperature
Warm Temperatures
Warm Temperatures
increases Recruitment
decreases Recruitment
7
6
8
4
9
Recruits
10
3
Temp
Mean Annual Bottom Temperature
2
Planque and Fredou (1999)
11
From Drinkwater (2004)
Cod Recruitment and Temperature
2
d(Recruitment)/dT
1.5
R2 = 0.75
1
0.5
0
-0.5
-1
-1.5
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Bottom Temperature
If BT < 5° and T warms stock recruitment generally increase
If BT between 5° and 8.5°C little change in recruitment
If BT >8.5°C recruitment generally decreases
If BT ≥ 12°C we do not see any cod stocks
Drinkwater (2004)
Cod landings at Greenland
400
2.5
2
300
1.5
200
100
0
Temperature
Landings in thousand tonnes
500
1
0.5
1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
http://www.ices.dk/globec/data/presentations/Climate%20change%20and%
20fisheries.ppt#267,6,Cod landings at Greenland
North sea
Examples of North Sea fish that have moved
north with climatic warming. Relationships
between mean latitude and 5-year running
mean winter bottom temperature for (A) cod,
(B) anglerfish, and (C) snake blenny. In (D),
ranges of shifts in mean latitude are shown.
Bars on the map illustrate only shift ranges of
mean latitudes, not longitudes. From Perry et
al. (2005)
from Quero, Du Buit and Vayne, 1998
North sea cod – fishing or
environment?
Annual landings of sole in the Kattegat-Skagerrak (ICES Division IIIA).
1600
1400
Yield (t)
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
0
1950
1960
1970
1980
Year
1990
2000
Sea level changes
http://www.ipcc.ch/present/cop7/part2.ppt
IPPC, WG1 TS Figure 24
Consequences for the Corals?
Coral bleaching
• Biologically little is known, but there seems
to be a correlation between sea
temperatures and coral bleaching.
A. Coral showing
normally pigmented
regions and bleached
regions to the upper
side more sunlit side of
colony.
B. Coral in shallows
showing similar pattern.
Photographer: O.
Hoegh-Guldberg.
Coral bleaching
Regions where major coral reef bleaching events have taken place during the past
15 years. Yellow spots indicate major bleaching events.
http://www.marinebiology.org/coralbleaching.htm
Distribution of coral bleaching
events in 1998
www.duke.edu/web/nicholas/bio217/aer9/causes.htm
Coral bleaching
Weekly sea surface temperature data for Tahiti (149.5oW 17.5oS). Arrows indicate bleaching
events reported in the literature. Horizontal line indicates the minimum temperature above
which bleaching events occur (threshold temperature). Hoegh-Guldberg (1999)
Coral bleaching
Number of reef provinces bleaching since 1979. Hoegh-Guldberg (1999)
Predictions
McWilliams et al 2005. Ecology. 86(8)
• IPCC predicts a 1-2°C rise in SST with doubling of CO2
• McWilliams et al. predicts 100% bleaching of coral colonies in the Caribbean
with a rise in SST of only 0.85°C
Final comments
• Future climate changes are expected
• Impact on fish production unknown
• Individual stocks may change in
abundance locally
• If stock increases the cause will be
attributed to ‘environment’
• If the stock decrease the cause will be
attributed to ‘overfishing’ and/or ‘climate
change’
Time for fighting climate change?
Record Heat
Record Ice Melt
Record Coral Bleaching
Thank you!
Record Hurricane season
Record Droughts
Thank you!
Leftover slides
Time-series of relative sea level for the past 300 years from Northern Europe. The
scale bar indicates ±100 mm. IPCC 2001(http://www.ipcc.ch/pub/wg1TARtechsum.pdf)