Transcript The Climate System

New Perspectives on
Climate Change Research
in Brazil
Carlos Nobre
Center for Earth System Science
National Institute for Space Research – INPE
and
Executive Coordinator of the FAPESP Research Program on
Global Climate Change
08 December 2008
Contents …
• Introduction: the role of S&T for sustainable
development
• New research programs on climate change in
Brazil:
– FAPESP Research Program on Global Climate
Change
– Climate Change Research Network – Rede
CLIMA
– National Institute for Climate Change Research
• Conclusion: the National Climate Change Plan
Percentage of Global Annual Emissions
Regional Shift in Emissions Share
62%
Kyoto Protocol
57%
49.7%
43%
38%
UNFCCC
Kyoto
Protocol
Adopted
50.3%
53%
47%
Kyoto
Protocol
Entered
into Force
Current
Top Emitters
1. China
2. USA
4. Russia
3. India
J. Gregg and G. Marland, 2008, personal communication
Recent emissions
0
Fossil
Fuel Emissions: Actual vs. IPCC Scenarios
SRES (2000)
1850
1900
1950
2000
2050
CO2 Emissions (GtC y-1)
10
9
8
7
Actual emissions: CDIAC
Actual emissions: EIA
450ppm stabilisation
650ppm stabilisation
A1FI
(Avgs.)
A1B
A1T
A2
B1
B2
2007
2006
2005
5
1995
2000
A1B: 2.42
A1FI: 2.71
A1T: 1.63
A2: 2.13
B1: 1.79
B2: 1.61
Observed
2000-2007
3.5%
6
1990
2100
aver. growth
rates in % y -1
for 2000-2010:
2005
Raupach et al 2007, PNAS; Global Carbon Project (2008)
Top Emitters
1. China
2010
2. USA
4. Russia
3. India
Inventory of Brazilian Emissions by Sector (CO2-eq)
Emissões Brasileiras de CO2eq (1994)
20%
1%
17%
Energy
Land Use
Change
1% of GDP
55%
Energia
Processos Industriais
Uso de Solventes e Outros Produtos
Agropecuária
Mudança no Uso da Terra e Florestas
Tratamento de Resíduos
Considering GWP of CH4 = 21
2%
Agriculture
25%
30% of GDP
Contributions of Brazilian research institutions
to the science of climate change
Number of articles by geographical coverage - 2002 - 2007
Latin America
68 (2,7%)
Brazil
38 (1,5%)
São Paulo
24 (0,9%)
Developing
Countries
328 (13,5%)
Developed
Countries
2153 (81,4%)
Selection of published articles with key words “climate change”in based on
20 journals (e.g., Science, Nature, PNAS, J. Climate, Climatic Change etc.),
during the last 5 years (2003-2007).
Average Brazilian contributions is 2% (all areas)
Can Tropical Countries
become fully developed in
st
the 21 Century following
sustainable pathways?
Pathways for Earth
Sustainability in Brazil
The role of S&T
The challenge of our generation is to invent a new
development paradigm for the Global Tropics, based on
S&T, recognizing that rational use of their abundant
renewable natural resources and biodiversity can be the
key factor for development.
This new development paradigm must rest upon a robust
capacity to observe and model the Earth System.
The time has come for Global Climate
Change Research in Brazil …
Why is it important?
• Over 50% of Brazil’s GDP is dependent on renewable
natural resources (agriculture, hydropower, etc.)
• Large vulnerable populations to extremes of climate and
weather (farmers in semi-arid Northeast Brazil and poor
urban population)
• Many other vulnerabilities
• Unlike other rapidly developing countries, it is quite feasible
to reduce emissions
Challenges for Brazilian Research Programs
on Climate Change in the Next Decade
• Detection
and attribution of causes of climate change
• Understanding of global biogeochemical cycles
• Natural climate variability versus climate change
• Global climate system models and scenarios
• Strategies to mitigate emissions of Greenhouse gases in
Brazil
• Key vulnerabilities to climate change
• Increase in adaptative capacity
The science of global climate
change: major challenges
• Quantification of systemic risks
• Reduction of uncertainties of projections and
turning them more relevant at the regional scales
and for adaptation (e.g., projections of extremes)
• Impacts, adaptation and vulnerability research
• Radically new decarbonization technologies
Brazilian Research Network on Climate
Change Research – “Rede CLIMA”
Brazilian Research Network on Climate
Change Research – “Rede CLIMA”
•
Established at the end of 2007 by the Ministry of S&T to
expand the knowledge basis on climate change, impacts,
adaptation, vulnerabilty and mitigation
•
Main Goal: increase Brazil’s capacity to cope with the
challenges of global environmental change
•
It will articulate over 50 research groups in Brazil covering
a broad range of interdisciplinary research on all
dimensions of global environmental change
•
Budget: US$ 15 million over 3 years to start
implementation
•
It involves initially 10 interconnected themes
Themes of “Rede CLIMA” with Focal Points
Biodiversity and Ecossistems
MPEG, Belém
Water Resources
UFPE, Recife
Regional Development
UnB, Brasília
Cities and Industry
Unicamp, Campinas
Renewable Energy
COPPE / UFRJ, RJ
Agriculture
EMBRAPA, Campinas
Human Health
Fiocruz, RJ
Economy of Climate Change
USP, São Paulo
Climate Modeling
INPE
Coastal Zones
FURG, Rio Grande
New Rede CLIMA-FAPESP Supercomputer for
Climate Change Research
...
Sustained
Throughput
15 Tflop/s
Main Memory
20 TBytes
Primary
TBytesin the world in climate
This new system
will Storage
be the 6th most 400
powerful
change research
by mid-2009
Aquisition
2008
Installations
First half of 2009
Total budget
US$ 22.5 M

FNDCT - US$ 15 M
FAPESP - US$ 7.5M
It will make it possible to run global climate model simulations at high
spatial resolutions to grid sizes of 10 km !
The “National Institute” for
Climate Change Research
The “National Institute” for
Climate Change Research
•
•
Competitive Call for Proposals for National
Institutes of S&T (INCT): US$ 250 M; 101 INCTs
selected
The National Institute for Climate Change:
- 26 research projects covering the science of climate
change, impact-adaptation-vulnerability studies, and
mitigation; technological developments in climate
modeling and geosensors
- 90 research groups in Brazil and 8 countries; 400
researchers and students involved
- US$ 3.5 M (+ US$ 5 M from Rede CLIMA) for 3 years
GLOBAL CLIMATE SYSTEM MODEL
Collective effort to develop the Brazilian Climate System Model
Mid-1970s
Mid-1980s
Early 1990s
Late 1990s
Around 2000
Mid 2000s
Atmosphere
Atmosphere
Atmosphere
Atmosphere
Atmosphere
Atmosphere
Land Surface
Land Surface
Land Surface
Land Surface
Land Surface
Ocean & Sea-Ice
The Climate System
Ocean & Sea-Ice
Ocean & Sea-Ice
Ocean & Sea-Ice
Sulphate
Sulphate
Sulphate
Aerosol
Aerosol
Aerosol
Non-sulphate
Aerosol
Non-sulphate
Aerosol
Carbon Cycle
Carbon Cycle
Dynamic
Vegetation
Atmospheric
Chemistry
Development of a Global Climate
System Model
•
Two-pronged approach: (i) full use of experience
of CPTEC and (ii) collaboration with advanced
climate change centers abroad
–
–
–
–
Take CPTEC Global Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere
Model as the structuring building block
Add components: dynamic vegetation with carbon
cycle; ocean carbon cycle; enhanced sea ice and pack
ice; GHG and aerosols; atmospheric chemistry, etc.
5 year project with engagement of many modeling
groups in Brazil
Capacity development in many areas
Brazil’s participation in IPCC AR5
global climate model simulations
•
•
•
•
International collaboration with advanced climate change
centers abroad: Hadley Centre and NCAR-ORNL, and
others likely
Design of simulations to add value to IPCC AR5
ensembles: higher ensemble sizes, higher resolution,
different modules and/or physics, chemistry, vegetation,
etc.
Simulations to be carried out in Rede CLIMA-FAPESP
Supercomputing Facility at INPE (likely from last quarter of
2009 through the fist quarter of 2011)
Open data policy access for all simulations
FAPESP Research Program on
Global Climate Change
FAPESP Research Program on Global
Climate Change
•
•
•
•
Carefully thought-out research plan (2 years)
Long term research Program: 10 years warranted
First Call for Proposals launched: US$ 7.5 million
Two-pronged Call for Proposals:
– US$ 6 million on scientific basis, impacts, and
mitigation themes
– US$ 1.5 million to develop the Brazilian Global Climate
System Model (4 years)
•
Contribution to the development of a full-fledged Earth
System Model
•
Supercomputer facility and support for model use and
development
Development of a Brazilian Global
Climate System Model
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
A single proposal will be selected
Consortium of research institutions lead by São Paulo
State institution (but engaging institutions from all over
Brazil and from abroad)
Build-up of existing experience and models developed in
Brazil
Applied to climate change research
No “black-box” solution accepted
Aims at developing capacity in all components of Global
Climate System Model
Strongly associated to PhD training
Four years duration; US$ 1.5 M
National Climate Change Plan
•
Federal Government has launched a National
Climate Change Plan
•
Climate Change Fund to be established:
estimates of US$ 400 million/year for adaptation,
mitigation and S&T development
•
Rede CLIMA, INCT for Climate Change and the
FAPESP Program (and other research programs
being established) will form the pillar for the R&D
portion of the National Climate Change Plan