Transcript Met112lecture11

MET 112
MET 112 Global Climate Change: Lecture 11
Energy &
Climate Change Mitigation
Outline:
Dr. Eugene Cordero
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Energy use
Mitigation
Kyoto Protocol
Strategies
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In one of the articles we read this week, what
was the mitigation strategy suggested.
Solar
Wind
Carbon trading
Carbon credits
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In the reading from Time magazine, what
approach is California using
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Volunteer reduction of emission.
Development of nuclear
Reduction of aerosol emission from
trucks
Conversion to solar in all city buildings
Cap and trading of carbon emissions
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Energy and Climate Change
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 Obviously, one of the main issues related to
climate change is the burning of fossil fuels
 Thus, energy use, and the continuing demand
for energy are central to the challenges of
climate change.
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Tons of CO2 emitted per person
US CO2 Emissions
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 Total emissions ~ 5,788.5 million metric tons
 ~ 22 metric tons per person
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Industry: 35%
Transportation: 33%
Residences: 18%
Commercial: 14%
 1,600 million metric tons due to personal use (~33%)
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Average US Personal Energy Use
(Per Person)
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Automobile fuel: 38 gallons per month
Natural Gas: 15 therms per month
Electricity: 190 Kilowatt-hours per month
Airline Miles flown 147 miles per month
Total:
Latest estimate ~
Kyoto allowance (for US):
~
To stabilize climate (550ppm)
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Average US Personal Energy Use
(Per Person)
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Automobile fuel: 38 gallons per month
Natural Gas: 15 therms per month
Electricity: 190 Kilowatt-hours per month
Airline Miles flown 147 miles per month
Total:
Latest estimate ~ 17,600 lbs of CO2
Kyoto allowance (for US):
~11,000 pounds
To stabilize climate (550ppm)
4,700 pounds
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Questions
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1. What percentage of electricity generation comes from
the burning of natural gas?
2. What percentage of transportation energy comes from
natural gas burning?
3. What percentage of transportation energy use comes
from coal?
4. If you buy an electric car, what is the mostly likely
source of energy?
5. Where does most residential energy come from?
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What percentage of electricity
generation comes from the burning of
natural gas?
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If you buy an electric car, what is the
most likely energy source
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1. Natural gas
2. Coal
3. Petroleum
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Mitigation of climate change
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 Mitigation:
– Steps taken to avoid or minimize negative
environmental impacts.
 Mitigation can include:
– avoiding the impact by not taking a certain
action;
– minimizing impacts by limiting the degree or
magnitude of the action;
– rectifying the impact by repairing or restoring
the affected environment
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The UN Framework Convention on
Climate Change
‘stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in the
atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous
anthropogenic human induced interference with the climate
system. Such a level should be achieved within a timeframe sufficient to allow ecosystems to adapt naturally to
climate change, to ensure that food production is not
threatened and to enable economic development to
proceed in a sustainable manner’
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Figure: Courtesy of IPCC
Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis
WGI contribution to IPCC Third Assessment Report
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Summary for Policymakers (SPM)
Drafted by a team of 59
Approved ‘sentence by sentence’
by WGI plenary (99 Governments and 45 scientists)
14 chapters
881 pages
120 Lead Authors
515 Contributing Authors
4621 References quoted
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IPCC Assessment Report
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 IPCC-Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
– Greenhouse gas concentrations continue to rise (warming).
– Anthropogenic aerosols tend to produce negative radiative forcing
(cooling)
“The balance of evidence suggests a discernible human influence
on global climate”
(IPCC) 1997
"There is new and stronger evidence that most of the warming
observed over the last 50 years is attributable to human
activities .“
(IPCC), 2001
(IPCC) 2007
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IPCC Assessment Report
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 IPCC-Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
– Greenhouse gas concentrations continue to rise (warming).
– Anthropogenic aerosols tend to produce negative radiative forcing
(cooling)
“The balance of evidence suggests a discernible human influence
on global climate”
(IPCC) 1997
"There is new and stronger evidence that most of the warming
observed over the last 50 years is attributable to human
activities .“
(IPCC), 2001
The IPCC finds that it is “very likely” that emissions of heattrapping gases from human activities have caused “most of the
observed increase in globally averaged temperatures since the
mid-20th century.
(IPCC) 2007
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Human Responsibility for
Climate Change
The IPCC finds that it is “very likely”
that emissions of heat-trapping gases
from human activities have caused
“most of the observed increase in
globally averaged temperatures since
the mid-20th century.”
Source: IPCC Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis—Summary for Policymakers.
The Kyoto Protocol
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A United Nations sponsored effort:
– Calls for reductions of greenhouse gas emissions by
industrialized countries of 5.2 per cent below 1990 levels.
– The Protocol will go into force after
1. The protocol has been ratified by a minimum of 55
countries.
2. The ratifying nations comprise 55% of global
greenhouse gas emissions.
– Current status:
 156 countries have signed accounting for 61% of global
CO2.
 US not planning on signing protocol (US accounts for
36% of CO2 emitted)
 Kyoto protocol went into force in Feb 2005
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Articles of the Kyoto Protocol
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Aim:
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Ways to reduce increasing GHG
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Goals:
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Enhancement of energy efficiency in relevant sectors of the national
economy
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Articles of the Kyoto Protocol
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Aim:
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Ways to reduce increasing GHG
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Goals:
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Enhancement of energy efficiency in relevant sectors of the national
economy
Protection and enhancement of sinks
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Articles of the Kyoto Protocol
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Aim:
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Ways to reduce increasing GHG
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Goals:
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Enhancement of energy efficiency in relevant sectors of the national
economy
Protection and enhancement of sinks
Promote sustainable agriculture
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Articles of the Kyoto Protocol
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Aim:
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Ways to reduce increasing GHG
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Goals:
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Enhancement of energy efficiency in relevant sectors of the national
economy
Protection and enhancement of sinks
Promote sustainable agriculture
Research and promote new and renewable energy
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Articles of the Kyoto Protocol
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Aim:
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Ways to reduce increasing GHG
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Goals:
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Enhancement of energy efficiency in relevant sectors of the national
economy
Protection and enhancement of sinks
Promote sustainable agriculture
Research and promote new and renewable energy
Phase out any incentives for ‘bad practice’
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Articles of the Kyoto Protocol
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Aim:
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Ways to reduce increasing GHG
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Goals:
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Enhancement of energy efficiency in relevant sectors of the national
economy
Protection and enhancement of sinks
Promote sustainable agriculture
Research and promote new and renewable energy
Phase out any incentives for ‘bad practice’
Encourage ‘good practices’
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Articles of the Kyoto Protocol
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Aim:
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Ways to reduce increasing GHG
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Goals:
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Enhancement of energy efficiency in relevant sectors of the national
economy
Protection and enhancement of sinks
Promote sustainable agriculture
Research and promote new and renewable energy
Phase out any incentives for ‘bad practice’
Encourage ‘good practices’
Cut GHG from aviation
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Articles of the Kyoto Protocol (II)
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Keep to assigned amounts of GHG with overall worldwide
reduction by at least 5% below 1990 levels by 2008-2012
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Countries can meet their commitments together
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Joint implementation -Countries can work together to meet
their emission reduction targets.
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Richer (annex 1) countries can help developing countries to
achieve sustainable development and limit GHG increases
and then claim some emission reductions for their own targets
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Emissions trading - countries can trade in ‘emission units’
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Kyoto Targets
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Industrialized countries will reduce their collective
emissions by 5.2% compared to the year 1990
 Note that compared to the emissions levels by 2010
without the Protocol, this target represents ~30%
cut).
 Calculated as an average
– over the five-year period of 2008-12.
 Target includes six greenhouse gases - carbon
dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, sulfur hexafluoride,
HFCs, and PFCs
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Kyoto Targets(2)
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 National targets
– European Union - 8% below 1990 levels
– USA - 7% below 1990
– Japan - 6% below 1990
– Russia 0% (stay at 1990 levels)
– Australia 8% over 1990 levels)
– Developing countries (no target)
 China, India etc.
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Kyoto Targets: Developing countries
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The UN Framework on Climate has agreed:
1. The largest share of historical and current global
emissions of greenhouse gases
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2. Per capita emissions in developing countries
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3. The share of global emissions originating in
developing countries
– will grow to meet their social and development
needs.
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Kyoto Targets: Developing countries
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The UN Framework on Climate has agreed:
1. The largest share of historical and current global
emissions of greenhouse gases
– has originated in developed countries;
2. Per capita emissions in developing countries
– are still relatively low;
3. The share of global emissions originating in
developing countries
– will grow to meet their social and development
needs.
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Emissions Trading
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Each country has an emission limit.
If this country cannot meet it’s target, it may purchase
carbon credits from other countries (on the open
market) who are under their limit.
This financially rewards countries that meet their
targets.
Countries also receive carbon credits through
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Emissions Trading
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Each country has an emission limit.
If this country cannot meet it’s target, it may purchase
carbon credits from other countries (on the open
market) who are under their limit.
 This financially rewards countries that meet their
targets.
 Example of Russia
 Countries also receive carbon credits through
– clean energy programs (i.e. greentags)
– carbon dioxide sinks (i.e. forests, oceans)
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Main reasons the US will not sign the Kyoto Protocol?
Economic burden
No limits on developing countries (i.e. China, India)
Protocol is not going to help much
"We will not do anything that harms our economy, because first
things first are the people who live in America"
- President Bush
Solutions - government
Kyoto Protocol
California potential leader
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Solutions - personal
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Transportation
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Home
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Food
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Consumption
www.earthday.net : Top 10 Actions; Ecological Footprint
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Four R’s
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1. Rethink
2. Reduce
3. Reuse
4. Recycle
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Solutions - Consumption
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 Question your consumption urges
 Material versus service based
economy
 Buy products that are in line with
your values
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Questions
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1. Is there scientific agreement that humans are causing global
warming? Is this consensus reflected in the media and
political arena? Why do you think there is a discrepancy??
2. Does our society have the ability and capacity to solve the
problem of global warming? Give some examples.
3. How important is the issue of global warming to our
civilization? Who should care?
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