Transcript On the Review of the Work Development and Future Plan for

The 4th Session of the JSC for CAS OPAG on WWRP,
Geneva Switzerland, 21-24 Feb , 2011
On the Review of the Work
Development and Future Plan for
Tropical Meteorology Research
Yihong DUAN
WGTMR
Contents
1. Activities
2. Projects and publications
3. Plan for next two years
Activities: Workshops and conferences
The 2nd International workshop on TC
landfall Processes (IWTCLP-Ⅱ)
The 3rd International Conference on
QPE/QPF and Hydrology
The 7th International workshop on Tropical
cyclone (IWTC-VII)
The 2nd International workshop on TC
landfall Processes (IWTCLP-Ⅱ)
Co-sponsors
TMR, TCP, STI/CMA, 973 Project of
MOST/China, NSF/China
Scientific Objective
to get better understanding of tropical cyclone
landfalling processes and its mechanism and
to improve landfall forecasting technique.
IWTCLP-Ⅱ(Cont’d)
Meeting Size
82 Participants (researchers and forecasters)
from 17 Countries and regions where
affected by TC Landfall.
Venue and Time
Shanghai, China in 19-23 Oct, 2009
Meeting Co-Chair
Lianshou Chen
Russell Elsberry
IWTCLP-Ⅱ(Cont’d)
Meeting Topics:
 Observations and Field Program
 Track, Structure and Intensity Changes Near the
Coast
 Topographic and Land Surface Effect , Especially
on Rainfall
 Physical Processes and Energy Transfers During
the ET Process
 High Impact Weather Events
 Forecast Techniques and Early Warning Systems
for TC Landfall
Photo for the opening ceremony of IWTCLP II in Shanghai, China
Brief summary of IWTCLP II
• 65 papers related to landfall tropical cyclone rainfall,
structure and intensity change, and terrain effect on
tropical cyclone rainfall and P-PARC/TCS-08 were
presented over the plenary meeting,
• The “Typhoon Landfalling Forecast Demonstration
Project” was proposed. It aims to improve the typhoon
forecast capabilities and to give better service towards
Shanghai EXPO 2010. Finally, it was endorsed by
WMO/CAS-15, in Korea in 2009.
The 3rd International Conference on
QPE/QPF and Hydrology
Co-sponsors
TMR, FVR, TCP, NUIST, MOST and NSF/China
Scientific Objectives
 To improve the understanding and forecast
techniques of QPE/QPF and hydrological prediction
with an emphasis on rainfall caused by tropical
cyclones and monsoons
 To bring the forecasters and researchers together to
review the progress of research and forecast, to
discuss and exchange research achievements and
operational forecast needs
The 3rd International Conference on
QPE/QPF and Hydrology (Cont’d)
Meeting Size
101 Participants (researchers and forecasters) from
22 Countries and Regions
Venue and Time
Nanjing, China from 18-22 Oct, 2010
Meeting Co-Chairs
Lianshou Chen (CAMS/CMA,CHINA)
Barbara Brown (NCAR,USA)
Yihong Duan (NMC/CMA,CHINA)
Chungu Lu (NSF, USA)
The 3rd International Conference on
QPE/QPF and Hydrology (Cont’d)
Meeting Topics
 High impact precipitation events, related to tropical
Cyclones, monsoons and severe storms;
 QPE and remote sensing observations;
 Hydrologic prediction and coupled hydrologyatmosphere-land models;
 Verification of QPF
 Data assimilation for precipitation forecasting system;
 Precipitation variability and climate change;
 QPF
The 7th International workshop on
Tropical cyclone (IWTC-VII)
Cosponsors
TMR, TCP, Meteo France
Scientific Objective
 to examine current knowledge, forecasting and
research trends on tropical cyclones from an
integrated global perspective and to report on
these aspects and
 to offer recommendations for future forecasting
studies and research with special regard to the
varying needs of different regions.
IWTC-VII (Cont’d)
Meeting Size
128 Participants from 42 TC affected countries
and regions
Meeting venue and Time
San Denis Island, La Reunion, France; 15-20
Nov, 2010
Meeting Chairs
Chris Velden (U. of Wisconsin, USA)
Jeff Kepert (BOM, Australia)
Groupe Photo for all IWTC-VII participants
San Denis Island, La Reunion, France; 15-20 Nov, 2010
IWTC-VII (Cont’d)
MAJOR TOPICS:
 Structure and Intensity Change,
 Formation and Extra-tropical Transition,
 TCs in Intraseasonal to Climate Time Scales,
 Disaster Risks, Mitigation, Warning Systems, Societal
Impacts
KEYNOTE LECTURES
 Surface Wind Structure and the Related PressureWind Relationship
 Probabilistic Forecasting and Applications for User Risk
Assessment
 QPE/QPF and Related Inland Flood
Modeling/Applications
IWTC-VII (Cont’d)
SPECIAL FOCUS PRESENTATIONS
 Targeted Observations for Tropical Cyclone Track
Forecasting
 Ocean Field Experiments (ITOP) and New Research
Findings
 THORPEX/TIGGE Applications to Tropical Cyclone
Motion and Forecasting
 IBTrACS Activities and Updates
 Overview and Operational Products Expected from HFIP
 Application of the Dvorak Technique and Resolving
Interagency Intensity Differences
PANEL DISCUSSION
 Future Research Directions for Tropical Cyclones and
Climate Change
Some accomplishments from IWTC VII
 59 recommendations, included 12 high priority
recommendations for future WMO activities,
forecaster needs, and research opportunities.
 A new summary statement of Tropical cyclone
and climate change was issued for WMO and
NMHSs use during the workshop
 IWTC VII final report will be on the WWRP
website in Feb 2011.
Monsoon Data Centers
• Center for Monsoon Field Campaign Legacy Data
Sets (Colorado State University-CSU, Prof. Richard
Johnson)
• Data Center for Monitoring and Assessment of
Extreme Weather and Climate Events in Asia (East
Asia Monsoon Activity Center - EAMAC Dr. Song
Lianchun)
• Monsoon Radar Meteorology Data Information
Center (Hydrospheric Atmospheric Research
Center/Nagoya University Japan, Prof. Hiroshi
Uyeda)
Center for Monsoon Field Campaign
Legacy Data Sets
•
The project website is at
http://johnson.atmos.colostate.edu/wwrp_monsoon/.
• the following field campaigns are included on this
website: ATEX, BOMEX, GATE, WMONEX, ASTEX,
TOGA COARE, SCSMEX, SALLJEX, NAME, NAMMA,
and TiMREX
• The upper-air sounding datasets for TOGA COARE,
SCSMEX, NAME and TiMREX have undergone
numerous checks and corrections to enhance their
quality.
Data Center for Monitoring and Assessment of Extreme
Weather and Climate Events in Asia( CEEMA)
• In 2010 the Center for Extreme (Weather and Climate)
Events Monitoring in Asia (CEEMA) was established by
the East Asian Monsoon Activity Center
A website for CEEMA has been established at
http://bcc.cma.gov.cn/Website/index.php?ChannelID=28
&show_product=1
An initial Objective Identification Technique for Regional
Extreme Weather and Climate Events (OITREE) has
been developed and applied in China.
8
Frequency variations of
drought events during
1957-2009 in China based
on the OITREE method
7
frequency
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
year
the affected area with
intensity distribution of
the 2009/2010 Southwest
China drought event
based on the OITREE
method
WGTMR Relevant Field Program
T-PARC/TCS 08
ITOP/TCS 10
YOTC
SWICE
PREDICT
GRIP
IFEX
HFIP
CEATIC
 Western North Pacific
 Ditto
 Ditto
 South Indian Ocean
 North Atlantic
 North Atlantic
 North Atlantic
 North Atlantic
 East and South China
Sea
China Experiment on Abnormal Typhoon In Coastal Area
(CEATIC)
Intense
observation
area
Intense
observation
area
Wind profiler
Wind profiler
Microwave
radiometer
Wind profiler
with RUSS
Raindrops
spectrometer
CEATIC
Wind tower
Buoy station
GPS Sounding
CEATIC Target TC in 2009
TC
Name
Molave
Goni
Morakot
Koppu
Wind profile for TC Molave 2009
Buoy station Observation for TC Molave 2009
Max. SST decrease 6℃
Effective wave heights
Effective wave high cycle
Wind
pressure
Projects and Publications
• Progress of FDP/RDP Project
• Publications
WWRP/TCP Typhoon Landfall Forecast
Demonstration Project (TLFDP)
Objective
• To demonstrate the performance of the most advanced
forecasting techniques for landfalling typhoons.
Action Taken
• Training Workshop organized in May 2010 (Shanghai)
• Real-time collection/display systems of forecast products
developed
• Real time verification system set-up
Planned Action
• To open the project website (http://tlfdp.typhoon.gov.cn)
• To provide real-time products to all TC Members
• To develop a total verification system
Courtesy of Dr Koji Kuroiwa
Progresses of TLFDP
• Training Workshop on Operational Tropical Cyclone
Forecast, 24-28 May, Shanghai
11 lecturers from 9 institutions
Trainees: 20 forecasters from meteorological bureaus of East China Region
List of forecast products collected in real time and the way of collection
Yellow: GTS. Red: FTP. Green: FTP + CMA Intranet. Blue: CMA Intranet.
Typhoon Forecast
Products Provider
Official
forecast
Global
model
Regional
model
Ensemble
prediction
Concensus
prediction
Statistical
prediction
NMC/CMA
RSMC Tokyo
HKO
NTC/KMA
JTWC
NMC/CMA
RSMC Tokyo
ECMWF
NTC/KMA
(unavailable yet)
STI_GRAPES
GZ Regional model
STI_WARMS
Participants of TIGGE TC
EPRDP
STI_CONS_OFFICIAL
STI_CONS_MODEL
NHC_Wind Probability
STI_TCSP
STI_SIZE
STI_ANALOG
HK_QMORPH
Track Intensity Wind Radii
√
√
√
√
√
√
√
√
√
√
√
√
√
√
√
√
√
√
√
2-D Gridded 2-D Gridded 3-D Gridded
Surface wind Precipitation Model
Output
√（Analyses）
√（Analyses）
√
√
√
√
√
√
√
√
√
√
√
√
√
√
√
√
√
√
√
√
√
√
√
√
Courtesy of Dr Hui YU
√(stations)
√
Real time verification system
(Track forecast verificaiton)
Courtesy of Dr Hui YU
Real time verification system
(Intensity forecast verificaiton)
Courtesy of Dr Hui YU
WWRP/TCP NW-Pacific TC Track
Ensemble Forecast Research Project
(THORPEX-Asia)
Objective
• To examine the utility of ensemble forecasts for the
operational typhoon forecasting.
Action Taken
• Website was established at JMA/MRI
• ID&PW provided to Typhoon Committee Members
• First improvement made to the Website
Planned Action
• Training for better utilization of the products
• Survey of the utility and further improvement of the
products
Courtesy of Dr Koji Kuroiwa
Courtesy of Dr Koji Kuroiwa
Publications
• Meeting report of the IWM-IV held in Beijing October 2025, 2008 in title of “BRIDGING WEATHER AND CLIMATE
IN RESEARCH AND FORECAST OF GLOBAL
MONSOON SYSTEM” will be published by BAMS in
March 2011
• “Tropical cyclone and Climate Change”, published in
NATURE GEOSCIENCE, Feb 2010, Expert Team on
Climate Impacts on Tropical Cyclones
• A book of 《Global Perspectives on tropical cyclone: From
Science to Mitigation》 (From IWTC VI Edited by Johnny
Chan, The Meeting Chair, published in 2010)
• A book of 《The Global Monsoon System: Research and
Forecast》，2nd Edition (From IWM-IV, Edited by C.P.
Chang, the Meeting Chair; will be published soon)
Preprint of Workshop and Conference
Other support to WMO NHMs
• A web version of “ A Global Tropical Cyclone Forecast
Guide” is nearing completion
• A WMO website has been established for seasonal
forecasts of tropical cyclone activity
Plan for next two years (2011-2012)
• Implementation of Typhoon Landfall FDP (with TCP)
• Implementation of NW Pacific Ensemble Forecast Project
(with TCP, THORPEX)
• TMR WG meeting (Oct 2011, China)
• Workshop on Monsoon Heavy Rainfall RDP (Oct 2011,
China)
• Monsoon Training Workshop on Heavy Precipitation (Oct
2011, China)
• IWM-V (2012, Malaysia)
• International Workshop on Dvorak Technique (with TCP,
Apr 2011, Honolulu, US)
Thank you for your attention
CAS Strategic Thrust II
• to advance scientific research and application as
well as development and implementation of
technology, and specifically:
• II.3 -- Enhanced capabilities of NMHSs to
produce better predictions and warnings;
• II.4 --Enhanced capabilities to use weather
observations; and
• II.5 -- Enhanced capabilities to draw benefits
from the global research capacity.