Transcript Dust Storm Modeling

A Step In Right Direction
Bare ground class from Olson
World Ecosystem Land Cover
And from NASA MODIS MOD12 product
W.A.Sprigg – AAAS - 2008
Comparison of Modeled and Measured PM2.5
Concentrations at Odessa, Texas, Dec. 15, 2003
Left panel with Olsen land surface data; right panel
with NASA MODIS land data: measured (dots)
modeled (solid lines) N.B. different scales
W.A.Sprigg – AAAS - 2008
ASSESS CLIMATE INFLUENCE ON AQ
Vegetation in May 2007 vs. average during same period from 2000
through 2006.
Courtesy Global Inventory Modeling & Mapping Studies Group NASA GSFC
W.A.Sprigg – AAAS - 2008
Potential Model Applications
• Air & Highway Safety
• Monitor Regional AQ
• Identify Airborne PM Sources
• Evaluate Soil Contamination Control Policies
• Assess AQ in Future Climates
W.A.Sprigg – AAAS - 2008
February 2007 Forecast Verification
Texas February 2007 dust event
PM2.5 airport comparisons
Concentration (ug/m3)
200
175
150
Arlington Obs
Arlington Mod
Denton Obs
Denton Mod
Midlothian Obs
Midlothian Mod
125
100
75
50
25
0
2/24/2007 0:00
W.A.Sprigg – AAAS - 2008
2/25/2007 0:00
2/26/2007 0:00
MONITORING REGIONAL AQ
Model Simulations & Forecasts
Fill gaps in Monitoring Network
W.A.Sprigg – AAAS - 2008
ISOLATE DUST SOURCE IN MODEL
TO ASSESS SOURCE CONTRIBUTIONS
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CLIMATE CHANGE & AIR QUALITY
PM sources in drier future vs sources in 2003
Scenario: The December 15-17, 2003 Storm
2003
W.A.Sprigg – AAAS - 2008
Drier future
Number of hours of PM2.5 exceeding daily
standard (65 mg/m3 ) among 40 sites.
Number of hours
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Day 1
Current climate
Day 2
Drier climate
Wetter climate
N.B. Effective Dec 17, 2006, standard is 35 mg/m3
W.A.Sprigg – AAAS - 2008
Day 3
PM2.5 difference at 40 sites: drier future vs.
2003 (pink dots @ Channel View, TX)
W.A.Sprigg – AAAS - 2008
Drought
Dust
Health
• Inhaled PM leads to heart failure, …“Ambient particulate
matter accelerates coagulation…” Mutlu et al., 2007
• “Inhalation of fine, airborne particulate matter (PM) has
serious chronic human health effects and is a major cause
of premature death worldwide.” Moreno et al., 2006
• “Coachella, California, residents’ cardiovascular mortality
and heart rate variability are elevated due to high airborne
PM,” Ostro et al., 2000
W.A.Sprigg – AAAS - 2008
Image by Jacques Descloitres, MODIS Rapid Response Team NASA GSFC, for
Natural Hazards http://naturalhazards.nasa.gov
California wildfires stripped the ground of vegetation. Exposed soil
and overlying ash are vulnerable to winds, as in this false color
Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) image. A
red plume of dust and ash blows over the Pacific Ocean and San
Clemente Island. Newly burned areas, vegetation, water & clouds.
Plume clearly comes from the burn scar near San Diego. Terra
satellite image 27/11/03 -- 250 meters per pixel
W.A.Sprigg – AAAS - 2008
Valley Fever
• CAUSE: SOIL-DWELLING FUNGI
• FUNGUS RESPONDS TO WEATHER & CLIMATE
• INHALING SPORES MAY LEAD TO INFECTION
– FLU=LIKE SYMPTOMS (fever, cough, etc.)
– MAY MOVE FROM LUNGS TO OTHER PARTS OF
BODY
• REGIONAL MORTALITY / MORBIDITY
– 2004 SEVERE CASES: AZ = 3,665 USA = 6,056
– DEATHS: 6-10% of reported cases (in AZ)
Adapted from A. Comrie
W.A.Sprigg – AAAS - 2008
Valley Fever Endemic Zone
From A. Comrie, 2000
Hector and Laniado-Laborin, 2002
W.A.Sprigg – AAAS - 2008
Meningitis in Africa
Meningococcal meningitis occurs worldwide but especially so in
dry Sub-Saharan Africa: the "African meningitis belt“, including
Nigeria, Burkina Faso, Mali, Niger, Chad, Cameroon….
W.A.Sprigg – AAAS - 2008
Meningitis in Africa
• Bacterial meningitis
Acute bacterial meningitis can follow when respiratory
passages are irritated by dust or when bacteria, carried with
windblown dust, are inhaled, enter the bloodstream and
migrate to the brain and spinal cord.
• A meningococcal meningitis pandemic beginning in 1996
resulted in some 300,000 cases reported to WHO
Countries
Cases
Deaths Fatality Rate (in 1997, WHO)
Burkina Faso 21,504
2,426
11.3%
Ghana
18,551
1,403
7.6%
Mali
10,960
1,106
10.1%
Total
59,461
6,047
10.2%
W.A.Sprigg – AAAS - 2008
Transcontinental transport of microorganisms
Kellogg, Griffin, 2005:
Fungal diseases, affecting crops like sugarcane and
bananas, have appeared in the Caribbean within a few days
after an outbreak in Africa.
Bacterial pathogens of rice and beans in the Caribbean air
samples, as well as those that cause disease in fruit and a
variety of trees, from African air samples.
Foot and Mouth Disease virus (endemic to sub-Saharan
Africa) may be carried by African dust; links between dust
storms that passed over Great Britain and outbreaks of the
disease.
W.A.Sprigg – AAAS - 2008
RECENT INTERNATIONAL STEPS
• The World Climate Research Programme and the Global
Atmospheric Watch (WWRP/GAW) Sand and Dust Storm (SDS)
Project was established in September 2004. Purpose: achieve
comprehensive, coordinated and sustained observations and
modelling of sand and dust storms in order to improve monitoring of
these storms, increase understanding of storm genesis, and enhance
prediction capabilities
• International Review of the draft science strategy & implementation
plan -- in Barcelona, Spain, November 2007
W.A.Sprigg – AAAS - 2008
PROPOSED PAN-AM DUST CENTRE for the
WMO International Sand & Dust Storm Warning System
Simulations &
Experimental Forecasts
User & Client Base
Practitioner, Manager, Policy Maker
Region>Country>State>Community
AQ, Health, Transp., Ag.
Information Portal
Public & Partner
Atmospheric
Observations
& Modeling
Public Access
Surface Source
Mapping & Monitoring
Critical Sources
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ISDSWS
Dust Storm Modeling:
Status and Opportunities
• Models tested in N. America,
Mediterranean, Africa, MiddleEast – can be used worldwide
• WMO International Sand and Dust
Storm Warning System marshals
forces to reduce dust emissions &
consequences of climate change
• New NASA satellites (A-Train)
and NOAA operational weather
forecast system (NMM) can
improve global dust source
inventories and forecasts
W.A.Sprigg – AAAS - 2008