Transcript Analyzing Societal Responses to Climate Change with Particular

Analyzing Societal Responses
to Climate Change with
Particular Reference to Health
Jonathan D. Mayer
University of Washington
Geography, Infectious Diseases,
Epidemiology, Health Services, Family
Medicine
Human-Earth System Interaction
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Highly complex
Involves interactive and recursive loops
Many of the relationships are nonlinear
Just as ecosystem(s) influence humans,
So humans influence ecosystems
Example
• Swidden (slash and burn) agriculture
• Well adapted in when food requirements
not high for large numbers of people
• Highly sustainable
– Allows regeneration of soil nutrients
• Humans influence environment
• Environment influences humans
Adaptation
• Keyword in this context
• Adaptation different than “natural”
adaptation
• Can be the result of intentional action
• Can be the result of tradition
• ?Other factors
• This is “cultural ecology”
Why Do Social Systems Adapt?
• To Reduce Vulnerability
– Individuals
– Groups
– Governments
– Supragovernmental units
• Vulnerability:
– “ability to be harmed or hurt”—Robt. Kates
– Strategies are taken to minimize this
Upstream Responses to Climate
Change
• Adaptive human action viewed as
“mitigation”
• Actions, based on feedback, to change
what is viewed as harmful human action
• Logic:
– Human activities are causing climate change
– Change those human actions
• Directly
• Through incentives
Specific Examples
• Change consumption of fossil fuels;
• Change incentives for use of private
transportation;
• Develop new technologies:
– Industry
– Transportation
• Alter spatial design of cities
– e.g., more “foot friendly”
More Profoundly…..
• Alter political incentives
• In democratic societies, make political
bodies (and politicians) accountable
• Etc…
• All of these are human actions (“societal
responses”) to alter the “anthropogenic” in
“anthropogenic climate change”
Downstream Effects
• (or responses)
• Climate change is there….what are we
going to do?
• Analysis is very similar to that of natural
hazards
• Can analyze individual, group, and
formalized group (governmental)
responses
– Intrapsychic responses as well
Most Profoundly
• Can realize degree to which humans are
responsible for climate change
• Respond accordingly
• But beware “Tragedy of the Commons”
Intrapsychic Responses
• Defenses
• Normalizing the abnormal
• Anxiety
– Common with sudden phenomena
– Less common with phenomena of gradual
onset and progression
• Denial
Individual Responses
• Do nothing
• Buy into the denial of others
• Individual strategies to minimize risk
– Heat waves—buy air conditioners if possible
– Drink water
– Stay cool
• Keep cisterns away from dwellings
• Drain pools of water
Individual Responses (cont)
• Change physical structure of houses
– Heat conservation
– Waterproof
• Insurance
Group Responses
• Form action groups
– e.g., environmental groups
– Political action
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Stregthen social ties (NYC and 9/11)
“Persuade”
Offer forms of insurance to spread risk
Group pressure
Group support
Governmental Adaptations
• Agencies to address consequences of
climate change—there are many!
• Strengthen public health
• Improve mosquito abatement
• Improve drainage
• Implement migration and resettlement in
case of potential flooding
– This has many profound social
consequences—Three Gorges Dam
Public Health Systems As
Adaptations
• Purpose is to reduce vulnerability thru
collective action
– Ability to be harmed by:
• Pathogens
• Toxins
• Underlying causes of widespread threats including:
• Human causes (“anthropogenic”), such as
climate change, cigarette smoke, toxic
waste, etc
Thus, public health serves as
a buffer of the environment
between some of the
malevolent forces, and society
(note that these forces are not
always “natural”)
Political Ecologic Framework
• First used in geography, anthropology to
analyze land degradation
• Political economy + cultural ecology
• Land degradation frequently result of
political decisions as well as cultural
maladaptation
Political Ecology and Disease
• Suggested by me in context of infectious
disease (Mayer 1996) and emerging
infection (Mayer 2000)
• Unintended consequences of political
decisions or political consequences of
private decisions
• Merged with ecological consequences
Climate Change, Disease, and
Political Ecology
• Global warming result of complex private
decisions—many scales
• Probable result: alteration of infectious,
noninfectious disease patterns
• Unintended consequences of decisions
made in:
– Firm
– By consumers
– By land developers (deforestation)
Major Need of Political Ecology
• Grounding abstract analysis with
real, concrete, on the ground
examples!