Transcript The Impacts of Climate Change

The Impacts
of Climate
Change
How
Climate
Change
Will Affect People Around The World
The Impacts of Climate Change
Stern Review, Chapter 3
Luka Jakelja, Stefan Krase, Christian Kozina
The Economics of Luka
Climate
Change, SS 2008
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The Impacts of Climate Change
Key message
“Climate Change threatens the basic elements of life for
people all around the world – access to water, food,
health, and use of land and the environment.“
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The Impacts of Climate Change
Table of contents
1. Introduction
2. Impacts on the water availability
3. Impacts on the food production
4. Impacts on the human health
5. Impacts on the use of land
6. Impacts on the infrastructure
7. Impacts on the environment
8. Non-linear changes and treshold effects
9. Summary and conclusion
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The Impacts of Climate Change
Table of contents
1. Introduction
2. Impacts on the water availability
3. Impacts on the food production
4. Impacts on the human health
5. Impacts on the use of land
6. Impacts on the infrastructure
7. Impacts on the environment
8. Non-linear changes and treshold effects
9. Summary and conclusion
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The Impacts of Climate Change
1. Introduction
„The consequences of climate change will depend on
how the physical impacts interact with socioeconomic factors.“
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The Impacts of Climate Change
1. Introduction
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Luka Jakelja, Stefan Krase, Christian Kozina
(IPCC FAR, 2007)
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The Impacts of Climate Change
1. Introduction
IPCC scenarios
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A1
A2
economic growth
B1
B2
sustainability
global
local
Luka Jakelja, Stefan Krase, Christian Kozina
(IPCC FAR, 2007)
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The Impacts of Climate Change
1. Introduction
IPCC scenarios
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A1
A2
economic growth
B1
B2
sustainability
global
local
Luka Jakelja, Stefan Krase, Christian Kozina
(IPCC FAR, 2007)
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The Impacts of Climate Change
1. Introduction
IPCC scenarios
A1
A1 T
non-fossil energy sources
A1 B
balanced use
A1 Fl
intensive use of fossil
energy sources
(IPCC FAR, 2007)
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The Impacts of Climate Change
1. Introduction
IPCC scenarios
B1
Global sustainability (~ + 1.8°C)
- population peak in mid-century, then decline
- rapid change in economic structures
A1 B
Global economic growth (~ + 2.8°C)
- population peak in mid-century, then decline
- rapid introduction of new technologies
A2
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National enterprises (~ + 3.4°C)
- continiuously increasing population
- econ. development regionally oriented
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The Impacts of Climate Change
1. Introduction
“The consequences of climate change will become
disproportionately more damaging with increased
warming.“
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The Impacts of Climate Change
1. Introduction
Relation between air temperature …
… and water holding capacity of the air.
exponential
y = ex
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The Impacts of Climate Change
1. Introduction
Relation between air temperature …
… and extrem temperatures.
(IPCC TAR, 2001)
convex
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The Impacts of Climate Change
1. Introduction
Relation between air temperature …
… and storm damage.
cubic
y = x3
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The Impacts of Climate Change
1. Introduction
There are two effects, that are not usually included in
existing studies (do not consider 5-6 °C warming):
1. More extreme weather events: disproportionately increase
2. Non-linear effects and treshold-effects: become increasingly
severe at higher temperatures (chapter 8)
The combined effect of impacts across several sectors
could be very damaging and amplify the consequences
of climate change.
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The Impacts of Climate Change
Table of contents
1. Introduction
2. Impacts on the water availability
3. Impacts on the food production
4. Impacts on the human health
5. Impacts on the use of land
6. Impacts on the infrastructure
7. Impacts on the environment
8. Non-linear changes and treshold effects
9. Summary and conclusion
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The Impacts of Climate Change
2. Impacts on the water availability
Meaning of water
• essential ressource for all life
• requirement for good health and sanitation
• input for almost all production
• essential for sustainable growth and poverty reduction
People will feel the impact of climate change most strongly
through changes in the distribution of water around and
its seasonal and annual variability.
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The Impacts of Climate Change
2. Impacts on the water availability
Intensification of the water cyle
• droughts and floods become more severe in many areas
• more intense rainfall
• more rain in high latitudes
• less rain in the dry subtropics
• probably substantial changes in tropical areas
As a result, several billion people will be living in areas of
more limited water avialability.
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The Impacts of Climate Change
2. Impacts on the water availability
Changes in precipitation
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The Impacts of Climate Change
2. Impacts on the water availability
Increase in annual river flows is not necessarily beneficial:
• Not enough storage to hold the extra water
• More serious flooding during the wet season
More crucial in dry reagions:
• Risk of droughts 40 % of land area (today 10 %) for + 3-4 °C
• Risk of extreme droughts 30 % (today 3 %)
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The Impacts of Climate Change
2. Impacts on the water availability
Melting glaciers and loss of mountain snow:
• Meltwater needed during the long run dry season 
disappears permanently once the glacier has melted
• Risk of damaging glacial lake outburst
• Ganges: meltwater from glaciers = 70% of summer flow (!)
• India: 500 million people
China: 250 million people
South America: tens of millions in the Andes
• All in all it threatens about 1/6 of the worlds population!
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The Impacts of Climate Change
Table of contents
1. Introduction
2. Impacts on the water availability
3. Impacts on the food production
4. Impacts on the human health
5. Impacts on the use of land
6. Impacts on the infrastructure
7. Impacts on the environment
8. Non-linear changes and treshold effects
9. Summary and conclusion
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The Impacts of Climate Change
3. Impacts on the food production
Some Facts about agriculture:
 accounts for 24% of world output
 employs 22% of the global population
 uses 40% of the land area
 1 billion relies on agriculture (= people who live on less than
1 Dollar a day)
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The Impacts of Climate Change
3. Impacts on the food production
What are the Impacts:
Warming may improve growth
extend / shift growing seasons
increasing damage when reaching peak temperatures more
often
Damage to crops because of windthrow, wildfires, soil erosion,
waterlogging of soils
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The Impacts of Climate Change
3. Impacts on the food production
Impacts depend on:
Temperature
Location
Carbon fertilization
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The Impacts of Climate Change
3. Impacts on the food production
Temperature and
location:
Source:
http://www.globalwarmingart.
com/wiki/Image:Annual_Aver
age_Temperature_Map_jpg
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The Impacts of Climate Change
3. Impacts on the food production
Crop Productivity is projected to increase slightly at mid- to
high latitudes (mean temp. increases of 1-3°C
At lower latitudes, especially is projected to decrease for even
small temp. Increases (1-2°C)
Globally, potential for food production is projected to increase
(temp. increases 1-3°C) above it will decrease
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The Impacts of Climate Change
3. Impacts on the food production
Carbon fertilization:
CO2 is a basic builing block for plant growth.
Able to offset waterstress and increasing temperatures in some
extent
Earlier studies claimed that a concentration of 550 ppm CO2
leads to increases in crop yields of 20-30%
Recent studies showed that a concentration of 550ppm CO2
increases crop yields by just up to 8-15% (if CO2
responsive)
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The Impacts of Climate Change
3. Impacts on the food production
Impacts on regions (food):
Europe:
Especially the situation in southern Europe is projected to
worsen (high temperatures and droughts). This region is
already vulnerable to climate variability and water availability.
Africa:
By 2020, in some countries, yields from rain-fed agriculture
could be reduced by up to 50%
By 2080, increase of arid & semi arid land of 5% to 8%
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The Impacts of Climate Change
3. Impacts on the food production
Relation of temperature and crop yield
• is not symmetrical
• it is distinctly asymmetric
fairly flat at first and then
sharply declining beyond
an upper threshold
Source: Schlenker and Roberts (2006)
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The Impacts of Climate Change
Table of contents
1. Introduction
2. Impacts on the water availability
3. Impacts on the food production
4. Impacts on the human health
5. Impacts on the use of land
6. Impacts on the infrastructure
7. Impacts on the environment
8. Non-linear changes and treshold effects
9. Summary and conclusion
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The Impacts of Climate Change
4. Impacts on the human health
What are the impacts:
Increase of malnutrition
Increase of Heat stress
Increase of vector-borne diseases (malaria, dengue fever)
Cold related deaths decrease
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The Impacts of Climate Change
4. Impacts on the human health
Peak temperatures may already be at the limit at some
locations
Northern latitude countries will suffer less deaths in winter
1-3mio more die from malnutrition (+3° + low carbon
fertilization)
40-60mio more people exposed to malaria in Africa (+2°)
WHO expects that 150 000 die p.a. because of climate change
--> will double at just +1°C
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The Impacts of Climate Change
4. Impacts on the human health
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The Impacts of Climate Change
4. Impacts on the human health
Estimates of extra deaths (per mio people) from climate change
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The Impacts of Climate Change
Table of contents
1. Introduction
2. Impacts on the water availability
3. Impacts on the food production
4. Impacts on the human health
5. Impacts on the use of land
6. Impacts on the infrastructure
7. Impacts on the environment
8. Non-linear changes and treshold effects
9. Summary and conclusion
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The Impacts of Climate Change
5. Impacts on the use of land
Some Facts:
• More than 200 mio live in coastal floodplains with 2 mio km2
and 1 trillion worth of assets (less than 1m elevation above
current sea level)
• 22 of 50 major cities are at risk of flooding
• Even if protected, residual risk of flooding like New Orleans
The homes of tens of millions more people are likely to
be affected by flooding from coastal storm surges with
rising sea levels
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The Impacts of Climate Change
5. Impacts on the use of land
• Although protection level rises in line with GDP per capita
additional people willbe flooded every year (figure)
• Warming of 3-4°C will lead to 20-80cm rise of sea level
• Upgrading coastal defences could partially offset these impacts
• Costs of upgrading rise exponentially with required height
• Today nearly as many political refugees compared to
environmental ones
• Some estimates project that 150-200 mio people may become
permanently displaced by the middle of the century due to rising
sea levels, more frequent floods and more intense droughts.
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The Impacts of Climate Change
5. Impacts on the use of land
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The Impacts of Climate Change
Table of contents
1. Introduction
2. Impacts on the water availability
3. Impacts on the food production
4. Impacts on the human health
5. Impacts on the use of land
6. Impacts on the infrastructure
7. Impacts on the environment
8. Non-linear changes and treshold effects
9. Summary and conclusion
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The Impacts of Climate Change
6. Impacts on the infrastructure
Cimate change will increase the intensity of storms, with
impacts on:
Soil conditions
• Droughts
• Permafrost melting
Wind
• Windspeed as an exponential function of temperature
• Damage costs as a cubic function of windspeed
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The Impacts of Climate Change
6. Impacts on the infrastructure
Source: Stern 2007
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The Impacts of Climate Change
6. Impacts on the infrastructure
Some facts:
• Storms and associated flooding are the most costly natural
disaster
• Causing 90% of the total losses from natural catastrophes
• With a large proportion in the developed world
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The Impacts of Climate Change
Table of contents
1. Introduction
2. Impacts on the water availability
3. Impacts on the food production
4. Impacts on the human health
5. Impacts on the use of land
6. Impacts on the infrastructure
7. Impacts on the environment
8. Non-linear changes and treshold effects
9. Summary and conclusion
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The Impacts of Climate Change
7. Impacts on the Environment
In the past:
• Species mooving polewards 6km/decade
• Decline of species (polar bear, caribou, white sprouce)
• 1% of world‘s amphibian species from tropical mountains
• Since 1500, 245 species extincted
• Today 800 species are threatened with extinction
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The Impacts of Climate Change
EXCURSUS: What is a caribou?
Well…
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The Impacts of Climate Change
7. Impacts on the Environment
Climate change occurs too rapidly for many species to
adapt …
2°C warming:
• 15-40% of species facing extinction
• High risk of extinction of arctic species
• Irreversible bleaching of coral reefs
• Loss of vast ares of tundra and forest
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The Impacts of Climate Change
7. Impacts on the Environment
3°C warming:
• 20-50% of species facing extinction
• 25-60% mammals
• 30-40% birds
• 15-70% butterflies in South Africa
• Onset of Amazon forest collapse
• Losing large areas of wetlands caused by rising see levels
4 or 5°C warming:
Full range of consequences not clear yet
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The Impacts of Climate Change
Table of contents
1. Introduction
2. Impacts on the water availability
3. Impacts on the food production
4. Impacts on the human health
5. Impacts on the use of land
6. Impacts on the infrastructure
7. Impacts on the environment
8. Non-linear changes and treshold effects
9. Summary and conclusion
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The Impacts of Climate Change
8. Non-linear changes and threshold effects
• Increasing chances of abrupt and large-scale changes
• Shifts in regional weather patterns (with consequences for
water availability in tropical regions)
• Melting/collapse of polar ice sheets will have impacts on:
• Population
• Land area
• GDP
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The Impacts of Climate Change
8. Non-linear changes and threshold effects
Source: Stern 2007
Impacts of melting/collapse of polar ice sheets:
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The Impacts of Climate Change
8. Non-linear changes and threshold effects
Potential temperature triggers for large-scale and abrupt changes
in climate system:
Source: Stern 2007
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The Impacts of Climate Change
8. Non-linear changes and threshold effects
Tipping points
in the earth
system
Source: Edenhofer 2007
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The Impacts of Climate Change
Table of contents
1. Introduction
2. Impacts on the water availability
3. Impacts on the food production
4. Impacts on the human health
5. Impacts on the use of land
6. Impacts on the infrastructure
7. Impacts on the environment
8. Non-linear changes and treshold effects
9. Summary and conclusion
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The Impacts of Climate Change
9. Summary and Conclusions
„Climate change will have increasingly sever impact on
people around the world, with a growing risk of abrupt
and large-scale changes at higher temperatures.“
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Thank
you!
The Impacts of Climate Change
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The Impacts of Climate Change
Questions
1
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How will climate change affect people around
the world (overview)?
What are the further consequences, when
living conditions are getting worse?
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The Impacts of Climate Change
Questions
2
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What are the basics for projections of future
changes in climate (szenarios)?
What must be considered?
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The Impacts of Climate Change
Questions
3
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Why will the consequences of climate change
become disproportionately more damaging
with increasing warming?
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The Impacts of Climate Change
Questions
4
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Climate change will alter patterns of water
availability by intensifying the water circle.
What does it lead to? Are there real benefits
for any countries?
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The Impacts of Climate Change
Questions
5
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What is the main problem about melting
glaciers and loss of mountain snow?
What is the main reason for sea level rise?
What does it lead to?
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The Impacts of Climate Change
Questions
6
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Will climate change increase worldwide
deaths?
Are there any benefits for health?
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The Impacts of Climate Change
Questions
7
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What is maybe the most crucial fact
regarding shifts in regional weather regimes
such as changes in monsoon or the El Niño?
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The Impacts of Climate Change
Questions
8
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It is argued that with temperatures rising
more and more species are threatened. What
is the actual problem about this? One might
argue that it is not a big thing that scuba
diving at the Great Barrier Reef will not be
that much fun anymore without the corals …
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