Transcript Click here for the PowerPoint presentation regarding the IPCC

What is weather?
The state of the
atmosphere at any
given time.
What is climate?
The aggregate of weather conditions
~ the sum of statistical weather
information that describes a place or
region.
Earth’s Orientation
Arctic Circle
Tropic of
Cancer
Ecliptic
Plane
Equator
Tropic of
Capricorn
Arctic Circle
Wave Theory of Light
 = Wavelength
Crest
Trough
V=v
Wave Velocity = Frequency x Wavelength
Electromagnetic Spectrum
0.6
Yellow Orange
0.7
Red
X Rays
0.001
micrometer
Infrared
1
micrometer
Short-wave radiation
Television, FM Radio
Gamma
Rays
Ultraviolet
Visible Light
Microwaves
1,000
micrometers
1
meter
Long-wave radiation
Standard AM radio
Broadcast band
0.5
Green
Blue
Short-wave Radio
0.4
Violet
1,000
meters
Long radio waves
Radiation from the Sun vs. Earth
UltraViolet
0.1
Infrared
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
10
Wavelength in Micrometers
20
30
40
50
60
100 %
5%
Backscattered
The Driver:
Solar Radiation
20 %
Reflected
20 %
Absorbed
5%
Reflected
50 % Absorbed
35
30
Atmospheric Pressure
Varies with Altitude
35
30
25
25
20
20
15
15
10
50 % of our atmosphere
lies below an altitude of 5.6 Km
5
0
10
5
200
400
600
800
Atmospheric Pressure in millibars
1000
140 km
120
Thermal Structure of the
Atmosphere
100
THERMOSPHERE
Mesopause
80
MESOSPHERE
60
Stratopause
40
Maximum Ozone
STRATOSPHERE
20
Tropopause
TROPOSPHERE
-100o -90o
-80o
-70o
-60o -50o
-40o
-30o
-20o
-10o
0o
Temperature in Centigrade
10o
20o
40o
50o
Atmospheric Composition
Argon
( Ar ) 0.946 %
Oxygen
( O2 )
All Other Gases 0.039 %
CO2
0.036 %
(Carbon Dioxide)
Ne
20.946 %
0.0018 %
(Neon)
He
0.0005 %
(Helium)
78.084 %
CH4
(Methane)
Kr
Nitrogen
( N2 )
0.00015 %
0.00011 %
(Krypton)
H2
(Hydrogen)
0.00005 %
Global Warming Theory
Early theorists – Fourier’s “bell jar hypothesis”
1824
Svante Arrhenius – H20 & CO2 roles in global
warming & projected future warming ~1894
Charles Keeling - CO2 measurements and first
systematic measurements of increasing trend
1958
CO2 Concentration in Parts per Million
CO2 Concentration
390
380
370
360
350
340
330
320
310
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
Greenhouse Gases
The three most important greenhouse gases are:
• water vapor (H20)
• carbon dioxide (CO2)
• methane (CH4)
Other greenhouse gases include:
• nitrous Oxide (N20)
• fluorinated compounds (CFCs, HFCs & PFCs)
Global Warming Potential
►
►
►
►
►
►
CO2 =
1
CH4 = 21
N2O = 310
HFC (hydrofluorocarbons) = 1,300
CFCs (chlorofluorocarbons) = 6,500
SF6 (sulphur hexafluoride) = 23,900
Variations of the Earth’s surface temperature
for the past 1,000 years
Atmospheric General
Circulation Models (AGCMs)
Before 1955: Numerical Models
1955-65: GCM modeling established
1965-75: GCMs first applied on a global & longrange basis
1975-85: GCMs Mature
Oceanic Circulation
Global ocean circulation
A simplified view of the global thermohaline conveyor belt, showing cooling and downwelling in the North Atlantic,
warming and freshening in the southern hemisphere, and return flow as a warm surface current.
Clouds Reduce
Temperature Range
Clouds retard loss of
heat during the night.
Clouds reflect solar
radiation during the day.
General Climatic Zones
Coriolis Effect:
The deflective effect of Earth’s rotation on
free-moving objects.
Deflection is to the right in the Northern
Hemisphere & to the left in the Southern
Hemisphere
Variation in
Troposphere Depth
Zonal
Precipitation
Patterns
Monsoon: a
seasonal reversal of
wind direction
associated with
large continents.
Global Distribution of Precipitation - January
What is the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change?
The IPCC was set up jointly by the World Meteorological
Organization and the United Nations Environment
Programme in November 1988. Its mandate is to:
“Assess the scientific, technical, and socioeconomic information relevant for the
understanding of the risk of human-induced
climate change.”
The IPCC does NOT conduct any research nor does it monitor
climate related data or parameters.
The IPCC role is to assess on a comprehensive, objective, open
and transparent basis the latest scientific, technical and socioeconomic literature produced worldwide relevant to the
understanding of the risk of human-induced climate change, its
observed and projected impacts and options for adaptation and
mitigation.
IPCC reports are intended to be NEUTRAL with respect to policy,
although they need to deal objectively with policy relevant
scientific, technical and socio economic factors.
IPCC reports are to be of high scientific and technical standards,
and aim to reflect a range of views, expertise and wide
geographical coverage.”
Working Groups of the IPCC:
Working Group I (WG1)
Assesses the physical scientific aspects
of the climate system & climate change
Working Group II (WG2)
Assesses the vulnerability of socioeconomic & natural systems to climate
change, negative & positive
consequences of climate change, &
options for adapting to it.
Working Group III (WG3)
Assesses options for mitigating climate
change through limiting or preventing
greenhouse gas emissions & enhancing
activities that remove them from the
atmosphere.
Task Force on National
Greenhouse Gas
Inventories
oversees the National Greenhouse Gas
Inventories Programme
What do critics say of the IPCC?
Critics contend that expression of reservations by scientists regarding an
impending ‘climate catastrophe’ are sometimes castigated by others within
the scientific community, thereby undermining the scientific process
“[S]elf-censorship in the minds of scientists ultimately leads to a sort of
deafness toward new, surprising insights that compete with or even
contradict the conventional explanatory models. Science is deteriorating
into a repair shop for conventional, politically opportune scientific claims.
Not only does science become impotent; it also loses its ability to
objectively inform the public.”
Hans von Storch
Director of the Institute for Coastal Research
GKSS Research Centre (Germany)
Professor, Meteorological Institute
University of Hamburg
What is the source of controversy provoked by the IPCC?
“Given authority by supranational bodies such as the UN, but
unaccountable
to theirinown
nationalagovernments,
a handful of
Published
Spiked,
British on-line
scientific journal
activists could
disproportionate
that make
hails aitself
as being impact upon the
debate, and make policy recommendations outside of the
dedicated “to raising the horizons of
constraints of policy and practicality … [This is part of a ] trend
humanity bypolicymaking,
waging a culture
warauthority
of
towards ‘international’
where the
of
national governments
is diminished
in relation to institutions such as
words against
misanthropy,
the United
Nations or the European
Union
… [R]emote, yet powerful,
priggishness,
prejudice,
luddism,
bureaucracies raises a number of questions about democracy and
illiberalism
andbecomes
irrationalism
in all
their what
accountability
… [S]cience
allied with
advocating
andthan
modern
forms.”
should beancient
done rather
telling us
what is currently known and
what the complexities and uncertainties involved with that knowledge
are.”
Tony Gilland
Science & Society Director
Institute of Ideas (Great Britain)
[holds a degree in philosophy, politics & economics from Oxford)
1st Assessment: 1990
Lead to the creation of the Intergovernmental Negotiating Committee for a
UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC).
2nd Assessment: 1995
Provided key input to the negotiations that lead to the 1997 Kyoto Protocol.
3rd Assessment: 2001
Devoted increased attention to regional scale issues
4th Assessment: 2007
Reported that the warming of the Earth’s climate system was unequivocal,
and that most of the observed increase in global average temperatures since
the mid-20th century is very likely due to the observed increase in
anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations.
IPCC Technical Reports
IPCC Technical Paper 1:
“Technologies, Policies & Measures for Mitigating
Climate Change”
November 1996, IPCC Working Group II
IPCC Technical Paper 2:
“An Introduction to Simple Climate Models Used in the
IPCC Section Assessment Report”
February 1997, IPCC Working Group I
IPCC Technical Paper 3
“Stabilization of Atmospheric Greenhouse Gases:
Physical, Biological & Socio-economic Implications”
February 1997, IPCC Working Group I
IPCC Technical Paper 4
“Implications of Proposed CO2 Emissions Limitations”
October 1997, IPCC Working Group I
IPCC Technical Paper 5
“Climate Change & Biodiversity” (CCB)
April 2002, IPCC Working Group II
June 2008
IPCC Working Group II
IPCC standardized “uncertainty language”
“virtually certain”
> 99%
“extremely likely”
> 95%
“very likely”
> 90%
“likely”
> 66%
“more likely than not”
> 50%
“about as likely as not”
33% to 66%
“unlikely”
< 33%
“very unlikely”
< 10%
“extremely unlikely”
< 5%
“exceptionally unlikely”
< 1%
“Attribution studies show that most of the observed increase in global
temperatures since the mid-20th century is very likely due to the observed
increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations.”
IPCC Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) “storylines”
A1 storyline
A2 storyline
World: market-oriented
Economy: fastest per capita growth
Population: 2050 peak, then decline
Governance: strong regional interactions;
income convergence
Technology: three scenario groups:
• A1FI: fossil-intensive
• A1T: non-fossil energy sources
• A1B: balanced across all sources
World: differentiated
Economy: regionally-oriented; lowest per
capita growth
Population: continuously increasing
Governance: self-reliance with
preservation of local identities
Technology: slowest & most fragmented
development
B1 storyline
B2 storyline
World: convergent
Economy: service & information-based;
lower growth than A1
Population: same as A1
Governance: global solutions to
economic, social & environmental
sustainability
Technology: clean & resource-efficient
World: local solutions
Economy: intermediate growth
Population: continuously increasing at a
slower rate than A2
Governance: local & regional solutions to
environmental protection & social
equity
Technology: more rapid than A2; less
rapid, more diverse than A1/B1
environmental emphasis
regional emphasis
global integration
economic emphasis
Millennium Ecosystem Assessment - 4 Scenarios
Scenario Name
Global
Orchestration
Order
from
Dominant Approach
for Sustainability
Economic
Approach
Social Policy
Foci
Dominant Social
Organizations
sustainable
development;
economic growth;
public goods
fair trade (reduction
of tariff boundaries),
with enhancement of
global public goods
improve world;
global public
health; global
education
transnational
companies; global
NGO and
multilateral
organizations
reserves; parks;
national-level
policies;
conservation
regional trade blocs;
mercantilism
security and
protection
multinational
companies
local-regional
co-management
common-property
institutions
integration of local
rules regulate
trade; local nonmarket rights
local communities
linked to global
communities; local
equity important
cooperatives, global
organizations
green technology;
eco-efficiency;
tradable ecological
property rights
global reduction
of trade boundaries;
fairly free movement
of goods, capital, &
people; global
markets in
ecological property
technical expertise
valued; follow
opportunity;
competition;
openness
transnational
professional
associations; NGOs
Strength
Adapting
Mosaic
TechnoGarden
“… per capita domestic water use in 2050 is
broadly similar in all world regions, at around
100 m3/yr …”
100 m3/yr = 72.4 gpcd
total column water vapor
the amount of water vapor contained in a
column over a given area on Earth
cryosphere
the sum of snow, ice & frozen water on
land – said to store about 75% of the
world’s fresh water