Transcript Country Report Ethiopia

IMPACTS OF PAST AND PRESENT CLIMATE CHANGE AND VARIABILITY
IN AGRICULTURAL SYSTEMS OF ETHIOPIA
COUNTRY REPORT
ABUHAY TAKELE AND TEWODROS MESFIN
AGRICULTURE IN ETHIOPIA
The agricultural sector in Ethiopia is the main economic stay
It directly supports about 85% of the population in terms of
employment and livelihood
It contributes about 50% of the country’s gross domestic
product (GDP).
It generates about 90% of the export earnings
Small-scale subsistent farmers dominate the production of
crops
The sector is mainly rainfed, relies on relatively backward
technologies.
Hence, production and productivity remains extremely low
AGRICULTURE IN ETHIOPIA Continued ………
Ethiopia has the largest livestock population in Africa and the
tenth largest in the world.
Currently there are about 70 million heads of livestock
Livestock is well integrated with the farming systems found
in the highlands and
provide the sole means of subsistence for the pastoralist in
the lowlands
AGRICULTURE IN ETHIOPIA Continued …………..
Figure 2.4.1. Crop, livestock dependent population of Ethiopia (Source: DPPC, 2003)
Climate Classifications for Ethiopia
Very diversified climate ranging from hot and semi-desert to mild and
humid
Characterized by the diversity in altitude accompanying climate and
ecological variations
The climate ranges from temperate on the plateau and hot in the
lowlands
Fig. Climatic zones of Ethiopia
Legend:
BwhBshBskAwAmAwsCwbCfbCwsH-
Hot Arid Climate
Hot Semi Arid Climate
Cool Dry Climate
Tropical Climate (with distinct dry winter)
Tropical Monsoon Rainy Climate (with short dry season)
Tropical Climate (criteria of both w & s are met)
Warm Temperature Rainy Climate (with dry winter)
Warm Temperature Rainy Climate (with out distinct dry season)
Warm Temperate climate (criteria of both w & s are met)
Cool Highland Climate
Rainfall Regimes of Ethiopia
Legend
1-Region A – Single Maxima
The wet period decrease northward
- A1-June/July-August/September
- A2-April/May-October/November
- A3-February/March-October/November
2-Region B – Double Maxima Type 1
Small peak in April and maximum peak in august
3-Region C – Double maxima Type 2
Peaks in the month of April and October
Fig. Rainfall patterns in Ethiopia. (Source: Federal DPPA,
Early Warning Department, 2003; the boundaries are approximate and unofficial).
Rainfall Regimes of Ethiopia Continued…………
The country generally has two production seasons
- The main season contributes about 90% of the annual national
average crop production
- The remaining 10% comes from the short season
In the arid and semi-arid areas rainfall is torrential, erratic, variable, and
of unreliable nature
- Rainfall amount is generally low ranging between 50 to about 800 mm
Temperature Regimes of Ethiopia
Mean annual temperature
- ranges from less than 150C over the highlands
- > 250C in the lowlands.
Evapo-transpiration rates are high ranging from 1400 to 2900 mm
CLIMATE VARIABILITY, CLIMATIC EXTREMES AND CLIMATE
CHANGE IN ETHIOPIA
Climate change is defined as:
According to IPCC (2001), climate change refers to any change
in climate over time whether due to natural variability or as a
result of human activity.
According to UNFCCC (2001), climate change refers to a change
in climate that is attributable directly or indirectly to human
activity that alters atmospheric composition.
In general, climate change refers to changes in long-term trends
in the average climate, such as changes in average
temperatures and rainfall.
Climate Variability refers to
changes in patterns, such as rainfall, weather and climate
Annual Rainfall Variability in Ethiopia
For the highly rainfall dependent Ethiopian Agriculture
The start and end of the rains
Their patterns of distribution
The length,
Frequency and probability of dry spells in the growing season are
key elements affecting planning, performance, and management of
agricultural operations
Because unusual rainfall amounts and distributions usually
lead to poor harvest and/or complete crop failure
shortage of pasture and animal feeds
Figure: Relationship between annual total rainfall and its coefficient of
variation over 92 selected dryland locations in Ethiopia
Long-term Trends of Rainfall and Temperature in Ethiopia
Rainfall analysis for the central highlands of Ethiopia
- extreme variability of rainfall and a general decreasing trend
- positive rainfall deviations from the long-term mean in the first of
the century
- negative deviations in the second half of the 20th century
-
Figure: Long-term summer rainfall time series of the central highlands of
Ethiopia (1898-1997)
Figure: Departure of long-term summer rainfall from its long-term average in
the central Ethiopian highlands
The positive departures observed during the first half of the 20th century
are highly pronounced in the first three decades
The second half of the 20th century suffered predominantly negative
rainfall deviations, with summer values frequently lower than the long-term
average
Long-term Trends Continued………………..
Recent vulnerability assessment studies predicted decrease in
rainfall over the northern parts of Ethiopia
An investigation with three global climate models also indicated a
risk of more frequent droughts under climate change (Board and
Agrawala, 2000)
There has been a warming trend in temperature over the past 50
years
The average annual minimum temperature
- about 0.25 0C every ten years
average annual maximum temperature
- increasing by about 0.10C every decade
The Frequency of Drought in Ethiopia
Year interval
Number of disasters
Average recurrence
Average recurrence
5
Once in 40 years
12AD-787AD
6
Roughly once in 100 years
832AD-968AD
3
Roughly once in 45 years
1006AD-1200AD
4
Roughly once in 48 years
1252-1340
5
Roughly once in 18 years
1400-1789
26
Roughly once in 15 years
1800-1900
10
Roughly once in 10 years
1900-1987
14
Roughly once in 6 years
1988-2002
5
Roughly once in 3 years
Table: Frequency of occurrences of drought events in Ethiopia (Source: NMSA,
1987)
Climate Change Projections
Simulation of future climate for 2030 and 2050 by
- Canadian Climate Center Model, CCCM
- Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Model, GFDL
- United Kingdom Meteorological Office-1989 model,
UKMO- 89
- GFDL-Transient Models
Indicated
In temperature
Rainfall
There will be an increase of temperature by 1.0 and 2.0oC
a decrease of rainfall by about 1 and 2% in 2030 and 2050,
Records of Natural Disasters, and Climate Change Related Extremes
Table 3.7.2. Top 10 Natural Disasters in Ethiopia sorted by total
number of people affected
Disaster
Date
Total Affected
Drought
2003
12,600,000
Drought
May-1983
7,750,000
Drought
Jun-1987
7,000,000
Drought
Oct-1989
6,500,000
Drought
Dec-1973
3,000,000
Drought
Nov-2005
2,600,000
Drought
Sep-1969
1,700,000
Drought
Jul-1965
1,500,000
Drought
Feb-1997
986,200
Flood
27-Oct-2006
361,600
Source: "EM-DAT: The OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database, www.em-dat.net
Table: Top 10 Natural Disasters in Ethiopia sorted by economic
damage costs
Date
Damage US$ (000's)
Drought
Dec-1973
76,000
Drought
Jul-1998
15,600
Earthquake
25-Aug-1906
6,750
Flood
23-Apr-2005
5,000
Flood
15-Aug-1994
3,500
Flood
5-Aug-2006
3,200
Flood
20-May-2005
1,200
Drought
Sep-1969
1,000
Flood
7-May-1968
920
Earthquake
29-Mar-1969
320
Disaster
Source: "EM-DAT: The OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database, www.em-dat.net
Flood Extremes
Flood is also a common problem and occurs in lowlands where rivers
flow over the gentle slopes with higher volume of water from highlands
Flooding caused by heavy rainfall and river overflowing has regularly
affected people and their property
- low lying areas of Somali
- Afar
- Gamella,
- Oromiya,
- Amhara and
- Southern regional states
Frost Extremes
Extremely cold temperatures are becoming common in the highland
areas of the country
Figure: Farmer clear frost killed Chata edulis plantation (left) and a frost
attacked tree (right), January 2005 at Haramaya, Ethiopia, (Source, AU,
2005)
IMPACTS OF CLIMATE VARIABILITY AND CHANGE ON
AGRICULTURE IN ETHIOPIA
Agriculture is the most important sector in the economy of Ethiopia
It represents 47% of the country’s GDP,
contributs about 80% of the total export value
and employs 85% of the population
Agriculture is mostly subsistence in nature with a high dependence
on rainfall (over 95%).
As a result, Ethiopia is highly vulnerable to climate variability,
seasonal shifts, and precipitation patterns
IMPACTS OF CLIMATE VARIABILITY Continued…………………..
The general impacts of climate change on agriculture include
• Natural resource degradation (Reduction in soil fertility etc);
• Increasing variability in growing season conditions (shifts in start
of rainy seasons, length and quality of rains, etc);
• Decreased livestock productivity directly (through higher
temperatures) and indirectly (through changes in the availability of
feed and fodder);
• Deceased crop yield and in extreme cases total crop failure
• Increased incidence of pest attacks resulting from high
temperature;
• Manifestation of vector and vector born diseases; and
• Negative impacts on human health affecting human resource
availability