Transcript Causes and Impacts of Climate Change in East Africa: Links to

Causes and Impacts of Climate Change in East
Africa:
Links to Crops, Livestock, Natural Ecosystems,
and Health
Jennifer Olson
And Gopal Alagarswamy, Jeff Andresen, David Campbell, Declan Conway, Ruth Doherty,
Jianjun Ge, Clair Hanson, Sarah Hession, Marianne Huebner, Brent Lofgren, Dave Lusch,
Stephen Magezi, Joseph Maitima, Joseph Messina, Salome Misana, Nathan Moore, Sam
Mugisha, John Nganga, John Kaneene, Bryan Pijanowski, Jiaguo Qi, Philip Thornton, Nate
Torbick, Jing Wang, Pius Yanda, Lijian Yang
NSF Awards 0308420 & 0308420, NIH Award 5R21GM084714-02
University
of Nairobi
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Climate Change Causes
Comparing relative importance of
causes –
• Greenhouse Gases (GHG) from the
global scale,
• Land use change from the local to
regional scale
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And
Effects
1974
2007
•Rising temperatures
•Changing precipitation patterns
(location, timing, variability)
•Extremes – droughts, floods,
storms
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Methodology
• Identify recent trends in climate
• Calibrate regional climate model RAMS for East
Africa using climate and land surface data.
– Higher resolution, better topography and landscape than
global circulation models;
• Develop/calibrate land use change & crop
models;
• Couple climate, land use & crop models to
simulate future climate (2050), compare climate
vs. land use effects, and
• Identify impacts on crop yields, savanna
vegetation, livestock productivity, households,
and zoonotic diseases through ecological &
socioeconomic field work, modeling.
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Temperature Trends
Zanzibar 1961-2005 (+1.9°C)
Iringa 1961-2005 (+0.7°C)
Iringa annual mean temperature time series (1961 - 2005)
Zanzibar annual mean temperature time series (1961 - 2005)
22.0
y = 0.0423x - 57.902
2
R = 0.5755
28.0
27.5
21.5
27.0
26.5
Temperature (C)
Temperature (C)
21.0
20.5
20.0
26.0
25.5
25.0
24.5
19.5
24.0
23.5
19.0
1961
1965
1969
1973
1977
1981
1985
1989
1993
1997
2001
2005
2009
23.0
1961
Years
Annual mean
1965
1969
1973
1977
1981
1985
1989
1993
1997
2001
2005
2009
Years
Linear Trend
Arusha 1961-2005 (+1.1°C)
Annual mean
Linear Trend
Arusha mean annual temperature time series (1961 -2005)
21.5
y = 0.0248x - 29.127
2
R = 0.5132
21.0
Temperature (C)
20.5
20.0
19.5
19.0
18.5
1961
1965
1969
1973
1977
1981
1985
1989
1993
1997
2001
2005
2009
Years
Annual
Source: Tanzania Meteorological Agency
Linear Trend
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Precipitation Trends
Iringa 1961-2005
Zanzibar 1961-2005
Zanzibar annual rainfall time series (1961 -2005)
Iringa annual rainfall time series (1961 - 2005)
y = -0.792x + 3251.6
2
R = 0.0007
3000
1200
y = -2.3913x + 5358.4
2
R = 0.0663
1100
2500
1000
2000
Rainfall (mm)
800
700
1500
1000
600
500
500
400
1961
0
1961
1965
1969
1973
1977
1981
1985
1989
1993
1997
2001
2005
2009
Annual rainfall
1965
1969
1973
1977
1981
1985
1989
1993
1997
2001
2005
2009
Years
Years
Annual rainfall
Linear Trend
Arusha 1961-2005
Linear Trend
Arusha annual rainfall time series (1961 -2005)
y = -6.2175x + 13146
2
R = 0.0799
1800
1600
1400
1200
Rainfall (mm)
Rainfall (mm)
900
1000
800
600
400
200
0
1961
1965
1969
1973
1977
1981
1985
1989
1993
1997
2001
2005
2009
Years
Annual rainfall
Linear Trend
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Experiments for
exploring climate-land interactions
Land Cover
Global Climate
Comparison:
1:
Current
Current
Baseline
2:
Current
2050 decade
Future climate
effects only
3:
2050 decade
Current
Future land
cover effects only
4:
2050 decade
2050 decade
Synergistic effects
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Land Use Changes
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Differences in Temperature (RCM)
Climate Change (GHG) LCLUC
Effects
Effects
Combined Effects
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Differences in Precipitation (RCM)
Climate Change
(GHG) Effects
Land Use Change
(LUC) Effects
Synergistic Effects
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Wind pattern changes
due to LCLUC
Summary of Projected Future
• Near large bodies of water, rainfall changes due
to LUC are of similar magnitude to that
associated with GHG. Farther from water, gains
in rainfall from GHG may be offset by reduced
rainfall due to LUC;
• All areas will see increases in variability of
rainfall—intense storms, droughts and floods—
due to GHG;
• CLIP results suggest the importance of subregional factors affecting climate and
resulting impacts.
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Impacts
1. Agricultural systems
2. Natural ecosystems
3. Health
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Impact on Crop Growth
• Temperatures –
– more rapid phenology, shorter growing season
– evapotranspiration higher so need more water
• Precipitation –
– Frequency, timing and inter-annual variability.
Some crops highly sensitive to when rain falls
during season (e.g., maize).
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Maize yields under current climate
conditions
•Rainfall and
soils limit
production
•Model assumes
low input levels
Deterministic
process based
simulation models
(DSSAT CERES);
CCSM v4 and
WorldClim.
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Difference in maize yields due to GHG and LUC
2000 to 2050
Green=increase
in yields
Brown=decline
in yields
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Highlands
•
•
•
Warmer temperatures, especially Tmin,
enhance maize yields.
Possible shift to maize at the expense of high
value tea, coffee.
Reduced incomes
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Lowlands, cropping systems
• Warmer temperatures lead to more rapid
phenology, shortening the growing season and
reducing yield;
• Warmer temperatures combined with similar or
reduced rainfall leads to declining crop yields;
• Less water available for irrigation.
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Agro-pastoral systems
• Warmer temperatures lead to vegetation drying
faster and water becoming scarce faster.
• Savanna vegetation composition changing, bush
encroachment observed;
• Forage productivity and palatability declining;
• Droughts impacting faster, more severe;
• Livestock and human
diseases more frequent
with climatic extremes.
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Adaptations, Agro-Pastoralists
• Changing livestock breeds
– More camels, goats
– New goat and cattle breeds from Somalia
• Distance traveled daily to water, forage
longer, herding patterns changing
• Reduced burning (less biomass)
• More pastoralists are cropping to cope
with frequent drought (but some fields
abandoned due to failure of short rains)
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Natural ecosystems
Some wildlife highly sensitive to changes in
temperature and to water availability, e.g.,
hippos, fish. Local extinctions possible.
Wildlife migration patterns disrupted.
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Highly Vulnerable Ecosystems (1)
• Wetlands: surface water will decline,
yet usage will intensify. High
concentrations of livestock and
wildlife lead to land degradation.
• Highlands: rapid climate changes
towards warmer temperatures. Risk
of increased fire, loss of glaciers,
altered vegetation composition.
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Highly Vulnerable Ecosystems (2)
• Coasts: higher rainfall, stronger
storms and waves, sea level rise lead
to erosion, inundation, salt water
intrusion. Urban infrastructure
affected.
• Coral reefs: ocean surface water
warming fast, bleaching.
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Impacts on Zoonotic Diseases
1.
Impacts of climate and land use change on
Trypanosomiasis (sleeping sickness)
distribution: A Dynamic Ecological Simulation
Model of Tsetse transmitted Trypanosomiasis in
Kenya (NIH)
2.
Impacts of climate, land use and management
change on Bovine TP: Modeling the Ecological
and Socioeconomic Determinants of
Tuberculosis Transmission in Humans, Livestock
and Wildlife
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Educational Links
• Capacity building of teachers/ lecturers, and
new curriculum modules for university / K-12
levels (science, math, social studies, etc.).
Implemented by US and East African
professors & teachers, will be online and
distributed at state & national levels.
• New internet connected, computer assisted
technologies in schools and communities in
Tanzania (ICT Global Corps).
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http://clip.msu.edu
http://eaclipse.msu.edu
Contact (Olson):
[email protected]
[email protected]
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