Transcript Grinnell Glacier from Mt. Gould 1938 Hileman photo

Climate Change Impacts to
Glacier National Park and
other mountainous areas
Daniel B. Fagre
Northern Rocky Mountain Science Center
Eh?
Photo by Karl Birkeland/ FS NAC
Emphases of Program
• Trends in ecosystem responses
• Underlying processes of
ecosystem change
• Modeling of dynamics to
project future
Grinnell Lake and Grinnell Glacier, 1910
Photo by Kiser, courtesy GNP Archives
Grinnell Glacier from Mt. Gould
1938
Hileman
photo/ GNP
Archives
1981
Key/ USGS
photo
1998
2005
Fagre/ USGS
photo
Reardon/
USGS photo
Sperry
Glacier
1850
1901
1913
1927
1938
1945
1959
1960
1966
1969
1979
1993
5 Years of Melting
• Agassiz 1993 – 1.02
• Agassiz 1998 – 0.93
• Old Sun 1993 – 0.42
• Old Sun 1998 – 0.35
• Blackfoot 1993 – 1.74
• Blackfoot 1998 – 1.63
• Rainbow 1993 – 1.21
• Rainbow 1998 – 1.15
• Chaney 1993 – 0.54
• Chaney 1998 – 0.48
• Red Eagle 1993 – 0.15
• Red Eagle 1998 – 0.08
Glacier Factoids
• 150 in 1850 to 27 or less in 2006
• Less than 28% of the glacier area
remains
• Less than 10% of the glacier
volume remains
• Glaciers continue to disintegrate
and melt
Sperry Glacier, August, 2001. B. Reardon/ USGS photo
How much snow
accumulates each winter?
• Snow depth measurements
• 0 – 7+m deep
Sperry Glacier. June 24, 2005. Photos by Blasé Reardon and Dan Fagre.
How much mass accumulates each winter?
• 560kg/m3 avg. density
• 65-95” SWE
Sperry Glacier. June 25, 2005. Dan Fagre photo.
How much mass
melts each summer?
•Ablation stakes
Huecke Portable Ice Drill, courtesy Joel Harper UM Dept. of Geology
•5.1m avg. height loss
•9cm/ day rate in snow
•4cm/ day rate in ice
•.5 - 1.7m ice loss
Sperry Glacier, Aug. 8, 2005. John Newton photo
How fast does Sperry flow? How deep is it?
Bed surface
Joel Brown Photo
•Partnership w/UM Geology Dept. (Prof. Joel Harper & students)
•Velocity (GPS) 3-5cm/day
•Ice depth (10mHz radar)
•Basic research into mass flux questions
Aquatic invertebrate
species distribution
in response to
stream temperature
Minimal glacial
runoff
Present glacial
runoff
Hydropsyche cockerelli
Arctopsyche grandis
Parapsyche elsis
Three fish species from Glacier National Park, MT USA
Native species
Westslope cutthroat trout (Oncorhynchus clarki lewisi)
Non-native species
Brook trout (Salvelinus fontinalis)
Rainbow trout (Oncorhyncus mykiss)
Pacific Basin Influences
PDO Warm Phase
PDO Cool Phase
The Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO)
•El-Nino-like pattern of climate variability
•20-30 year cycles
•North Pacific Phenomenon
Methods
Climate Fluctuations
 Modern instrumentation
 Climate sensitive tree rings
Glacier NP Summer Drought
LIA
Glac. Max.
1930’s
Dust Bowl
1850
1913
1993
1945
Summer Drought
& Glacier
Recession
Fires Episodes
?
PNW node
Waterlimited vs.
energylimited
systems.
Climate and Douglas-fir growth
Sample plots
cover the
complete
biophysical
gradient
space of
Douglas-fir.
Net primary production (NPP, kgC m-2 y-1) vs. precipitation (PRCP, mm y-1),
temperature (Temp, oC), and incident shortwave radiation (RAD, MJ m-2 d-1) for
1980-1997.
NPP vs. PRCP
NPP vs. Temp
NPP vs. RAD
Change Detection Map
Outflow (A2 minus Control simulation)
20th Century Trends In Snowpack
Decrease Increase
Mote 2003(b)
Trends in Timing of Spring Snowmelt
+20d later
–20d earlier
Courtesy of Mike Dettinger, Iris Stewart, Dan Cayan
In summer 2002, pinyon (Pinus edulis) began dying en masse from drought stress and an
associated bark beetle outbreak.
Jemez Mts. near Los Alamos, October 2002
Conversion from PJ to J woodlands…
Jemez Mts., May 2004
The U.S. Geological Survey’s
Western Mountain Initiative (WMI)
of global change research sites
Olympic and
North Cascades
Sierra Nevada
Northern Rocky
Mountains
Central Rocky
Mountains
Southern Rocky
Mountains
PNW node
“pristine”
“severely degraded”
The model
The domain
Air-quality modeling in
mountain protected
areas – typically the
worst days are caused
by wildfire.
GLobal Observation Research Initiative in Alpine
Environments
• developed
by researchers at the University of Vienna,
Austria
•initiative towards an international research network to
assess climate change impacts on mountain
environments
• in line with international research demands, e.g.
•Mountain Research Initiative
•Global Terrestrial Observation System
•Global Mountain Biodiversity Assessment
Glacier National Park, MT
CLIMET Transect
Western Mountain Initiative
The American Cordillera Transect
GLOCHAMORE
GLORIA Project