Transcript Impact - Unido

Improved energy sector planning to
respond to climate change
Rohit Khanna
ESMAP Program Manager
How to convert global scenarios to national actions
Consensus building
• A complex process
• Principal
stakeholders
involved in India’s
low carbon planning
Planning Commission
Ministries
Ministry of Agriculture
Ministry of Coal
Ministry of Environment & Forests
Ministry of External Affairs
Ministry of Finance
Ministry of Heavy Industries & Public
Enterprises
Ministry of Non-Conventional Energy
Sources
Ministry of Petroleum & Natural Gas
Ministry of Power
Ministry of Road Transport & Highways
Ministry of Science & Technology
Councils
Confederation of Indian Industry
Council of Scientific and Industrial
Research
Federation of Indian Chambers of
Commerce and Industry
Indian Council for Agricultural Research
(ICAR)
Indian Council of Medical Research
National Council for Cement and
Building Materials
Associations
Associated Chambers of Commerce and
Industry
Cement Manufacturers’ Association
Laboratories
Forest Survey of India
India Meteorological Departmen
India Meteorology Department
Indian Space Research Organisation
National Chemical Laboratory
National Physical Laboratory
Regional Research Laboratory
Remote Sensing Applications Centre
NGOs and Centers
Centre for Environment Education
Centre for Inter-Disciplinary Studies of
Mountain and Hill Environment
Centre for Sustainable Technologies
Development Alternatives
Integrated Research and Action for
Development
Integrated Research and Action for
Development
Malaria Research Centre
Nehru Foundation for Development
Institutes
Central Fuel Research Institute
Central Glass and Ceramic Research
Institute
Central Leather Research Institute
Central Mining Research Institute
Central Rice Research Institute
Central Road Research Institute
Forest Research Institute
G.B. Pant Institute of Himalayan
Environment & Development
Indian Agricultural Research Institute
Indian Institute of Forest Management,
Bhopal
Indian Institute of Management
Indian Institute of Petroleum
Indian Institute of Science
Indian Institute of TechnologyIndian
Institute of Tropical Meteorology
Indira Gandhi Institute of Development
Research
Institute for Social and Economic
Change
Institute of Radio-physics and
Electronics
Kerala Forest Research Institute
Maulana Azad National Institute of
Technology
National Dairy Research Institute
National Environmental Engineering
Research Institute
National Institute of Advanced Studies
National Institute of Oceanography
The Energy and Resources Institute
Wildlife Institute of India
Universities
Aligarh Muslim University
Jadavpur University
Jawaharlal Nehru University
School of Environmental Management
Tamil Nadu Agricultural University
Tripura University
University of Agricultural Sciences
University of Delhi
Multiple tools required
Questions:
Abatement opportunities
Technologies/investments
Marginal abatement cost
EFFECT
TAMT
MACtool
LULUCF
Multi-region
CGE
Dynamic
Stochastic
GE
Questions:
Impact on economic growth,
employment, trade,
production choices, etc.
Bottom-up vs. Top-down
EFFECT Model for
Planning and Consensus
Building
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Establish a macroeconomic outlook
Build a picture of the sector
Develop a forecast
Establish alternative development
scenarios
• Identify financing needs and options
MAC Tool Graphs :
Wedges, Installed Power Capacity,
Investments
Case study: Mexico
• Context: Government had previously established a national climate
change strategy; were in the process of preparing an Action Plan for
specific sectoral LCD interventions (PECC)
• Methodology: WB was asked to contribute to PECC by looking at
economic cost and investment requirements of alternative LCD scenarios
• Conclusions: A number of high potential and low cost measures: public
transport and vehicle efficiency, efficiency measures and low-cost
electricity supply options – but barriers prevent implementation
• Impacts:
$500 million Climate Change DPL, April 2008
$300 million Environmental sustainability DPL, Dec. 2008
$1.5 billion Green Growth DPL, Oct. 2009
$400 million Low Carbon Growth DPL, Nov. 2010
2 RE / EE SILS + 2 CIF operations
Case study: Poland
• Context: Government concerns over cost of climate change mitigation
• Methodology:
• undertook a bottom-up study with addition of a linked macroeconomic
analysis to address economic growth and fiscal concerns
• drawing on best practices in other EU countries was particularly
helpful
• Conclusions: good policies could make a big difference by focusing on
energy efficiency and low cost renewable energy to 2020 – other options
not feasible in this time period
• Impact: $1.1 billion RE / EE DPL approved June 2011
HEAT: Assessing Climate
Impacts on Energy Systems
Lessons and experience
• Low carbon planning is a gradual process built on
long-term relationships
• Small investments in tools and planning can have a
big payback in terms of scaling up deployment
• Avoid reinventing the wheel - make use of existing
models and tools
• Be bold, but don’t underestimate the challenge of
turning plans into investments and policy change
• The need to tailor analysis to the country’s needs –
sub-sectoral work can be equally valuable
Future priorities
• Coordinate low carbon planning activities to maximize
learning and share tools
• Need to focus on operationalizing plans to prepare
investments for climate funds (CIFs, Energy+)
• Improve understanding of climate resilience – and
implications for investments