Transcript PowerPoint pres. - California Water and Environmental

How is DWR Responding to
Climate Change



Sanjaya Seneviratne
CWEMF
November 21, 2003
Outline
 Address
Climate Change in the
California water Plan
 A simplified approach to account
for changes in run off due to
Climate Change
 Case Study ( In-Delta Storage)
California Water Plan - Outline
 DWR
Policy on Climate Change
 How
is DWR incorporating Climate
Change into its activities. (SWP Report,
B118, JACT initiatives, Water Plan )
 Water
Plan Recommendations—(draft)
Chapter 3
DWR Policy on Climate Change
 2001—New
DWR management directive
on Climate Change
 Consistent
with the policies of other State
agencies.
 Will
be addressed as a significant issue in
the California Water Plan Update 2003
Climate Change Impacts
 Temperature
projection 1.4 to 5.8C (2.5 to10.4 F)
 Reduced Sierra Snow Pack

April-July Runoff Reduction by 2090 (Using+2.1C or 3.8F)
• Sacramento Region ---43 percent
• Southern Sierra—23 percent


More precipitation falls as rain
Earlier spring snow melt
 More
Extreme Storms (climate variability)
 Rising Sea Level


Coastal areas, groundwater, Delta levees (tides) and water
quality effects
Projections range from 7 inches to 35 inches rise
.
.
.
Central Valley Water Year Type Occurrence
Percent Given WY Type
0.6
hist (1906-2000)
0.5
2020s
2050s
2090s
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
0.0
Critically Dry
Dry
Below Normal
Above Normal
Wet
Water Year Type
Van Rheenen, N.T., A.W. Wood, R.N. Palmer and D.P. Lettenmaier, 2004
California Climate Initiative

Formation of a Joint Agency Climate Team

Members





Resources Agency (CEC, DWR, Forestry, F&G)
CALEPA (Air Resources Board, SWRCB, Integrated Waste
management
Department of Transportation
Food and Ag, Trade & Commerce
Governor’s Office—Planning & Research
 Initiatives
focus on reduction of GHG
emissions and adaptation to Climate
Change
JOINT AGENCY CLIMATE TEAM
CLIMATE CHANGE INITIATIVES
DWR
 Collect
Better Hydrologic and
Environmental Data
 Enhance
Capacity
Water Management Planning
Water Plan
 Acknowledgement
 Educate
of climate change
public
 Lay foundation for future research
 What can we do now
 Identifying a process for planners to
consider climate change—climate
variability
 Look at risk/tradeoffs—protection of
investments, public safety,--incremental
cost of added protection
California Water Plan
Public Advisory Committee
Stakeholder Views
 Is
global warming occurring?
 Belief in climate change but not from man
made causes
 Can not plan or prepare for climate
change
 Need only look at no-regret strategies
 Not an issue
Traditional Approach to Hydrology,
Water Resources, and Climate

The classical assumption is equivalent to
statistically stationary, “the future will resemble
the past”

Assumes sufficient time and information is
available to respond to climate change

Assumes no special effort is required to protect
against surprises
Water Plan Recommendations
Stakeholder Briefing Draft

Addressed in the Context of
Planning For an Uncertain Future
http://www.waterplan.water.ca.gov/b160/workgr
oups/chapterreviewgroup.htm
 Enhance
existing monitoring
program that will verify past
data trends and help validate
models for evaluating climate
change impacts. An enhanced
monitoring program will help to
build more accurate tools for
predicting impacts at regional
and local scales.
 Incorporate
flexible and robust
climate change response
strategies to the extent
possible into the design,
planning, and operation of
systems.
 Funding
for federal, state and
local agencies to develop
strategic plans for dealing with
climate change.
 The
State should support
efforts to enhance public
awareness about climate
change and make information
readily available.
Other
than develop a strategic
plan, what has DWR done
about Climate Change ?
Outline
 Address
Climate Change in the
California water Plan
 A simplified approach to account
for changes in Run off due to
Climate Change
 Case Study ( In-Delta Storage)
 Average
monthly volume distribution
V(2000-1951) – V (1950-1900)
Annual Distribution of Unimpaired Runoff
Sacramento River at Bend Bridge
0.30
1900-1950 Average
Monthly Runoff As % WY Runoff
1951-2000 Average
50-Year Trend
0.25
100-Year Trend
0.20
0.15
0.10
0.05
0.00
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
Month
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Comparison of Water Supply Impacts from
CALSIM Studies
Total Delta Exports
Base Study
Study 1
Base- Study 1
Study 2
Base-Study 2
4140
4070
-70
4035
-105
6251
6192
-59
6135
-116
646
679
33
723
77
8447
8486
39
8601
154
( 1928-1934)
Total Delta Exports
(1922-1994)
Surplus Delta Outflow
( 1928-1934)
Surplus Delta Outflow
(1922-1994)
Outline
 Address
Climate Change in the
California water Plan
 A simplified approach to account
for changes in Run off due to
Climate Change
 Case Study ( In-Delta Storage)
Re-engineered Delta Wetlands Project
Bacon and Webb (Storage)
Holland and Bouldin (Habitat)
Summary Of Climate Change Study
Results
calsim 2 Study
1922 - 1997
Base Case
Delivery
(TAF)
Diff
Total Carryover Storage
Trinity
Oroville
Flow
Shasta
Folsom
San Luis
(TAF)
5740
-
5896
156
1794 2232 462
429
701
1861
442
703
(D 1641)
C. C Impacts
(D 1641)
2254
461
VISION for 2008
CWEMF
Sub
Committee
Water
Plan
Training, New Models, Large Modeling Efforts,
Modeling User Groups