Transcript Module 2 - Concepts - Global Climate Change Alliance+

Global Climate Change Alliance:
Intra-ACP Programme
Training Module
Mainstreaming Climate Change
Module 2 – Climate change concepts & development linkages
Ms Isabelle Mamaty
Senior Expert
Climate Support Facility
An initiative of the ACP Group of States funded by the European Union
Climate change concepts &
development
 Learning objectives:
o To understand the main climate change concepts
o To understand the climate change –development
linkages
 Expected outcomes:
o Increased knowledge on the concepts of
vulnerability, risk and hazard, adaptation,
mitigation
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Biophysical and socioeconomic impacts
Biophysical
impacts
Socioeconomic
impacts
Changes in t°
Changes in rainfall
patterns
Shifts in seasons
More frequent or severe
storms, floods, droughts
Raised sea level
Erosion, desertification
Changes in water
quality/availability
Changes in ecosystems
Biodiversity loss
Disease & pest
outbreaks, ...
Damage to or
destruction of
infrastructure
Reduced food security,
malnutrition
Economic disruption,
loss of livelihoods, social
disruption
Increased mortality and
morbidity
Reduced availability of
hydropower
Conflicts, population
displacement, human
migrations, ...
Vulnerability
factors
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Vulnerability
Exposure
Sensitivity
Adaptive capacity
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Resilience
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Vulnerability
-
Adaptation
•Age
•Gender
•Social group
•Education
•Wealth
•Access to
information and
technology
•‘Built’ and ‘green’
infrastructure
•Institutions
•Social
organisation
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Maladaptation
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•Culture
•Equity &
(in)equality
•Development
level
Hazard and risk
Probability of
occurrence
Hazard
Risk
Severity of
consequences
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Adaptation and mitigation
Adaptation
Mitigation
Human activities
Impacts
Opportunities, risks
& constraints
Climate,
environment &
natural resources
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Environment – climate change –
development linkages
Climate change:
- an environmental issue
- a development
issue
Source: Millennium
Ecosystem
Assessment (2005)
Figure B, p. 7.
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Climate uncertainties
 For any given emission scenario, different
atmosphere-ocean general circulation
models (AOGCMs) provide different
projections of future change – sometimes
very different ones
 Due to the complexity of the climate
system, many uncertainties prevail and
will persist over the evolution of climate
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The cost of inaction
 The uncertainties surrounding climate
change are often invoked to justify inaction
 In a medium- to long-term perspective,
however, inaction now is likely to be more
costly:
Failure to adapt
Failure to reduce emissions
*Wasted investment
*Increased vulnerability
*More harmful impacts
*Higher adaptation costs
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The benefits of action
 Some climate adaptation and mitigation
measures are expected to provide
developmental benefits, regardless of the
scope and magnitude of climate change or,
as far as mitigation is concerned, regardless
of carbon prices
 Even in the face of uncertainty, some types
of measures are justified
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Justified measures in the
face of uncertainty (1)
 ‘No-regret’ measures:
o those expected to produce net benefits for society
even in the absence of climate change (adaptation) or
independently of any ‘reward’ for mitigation (zero or
negative net cost at a zero carbon price)
 ‘Low-regret’ measures:
o those expected to have a cost for society, but an
acceptable one in view of the benefits they would bring if
climate change turns out to produce significant effects
(adaptation), or to have a low net cost at zero or low
carbon prices (mitigation)
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Justified measures in the
face of uncertainty (2)
 ‘Robust’ measures:
o those that produce net benefits or deliver
good outcomes across various possible
climate change or carbon price scenarios and
economic development scenarios (rather than
just under the ‘most likely’ scenario)
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Key messages related to
uncertainties
 Many uncertainties prevail and will persist over
the evolution of the climate
o Combination of socioeconomic uncertainties and climaterelated uncertainties / modelling limitations
o Downscaling of projections remains difficult
 Uncertainties do not justify inaction
o Look for no-regret, low-regret and robust measures
 Adaptive management and scenario-based planning
support planning under conditions of uncertainty
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Climate change and
sustainable development
Both adaptation and
mitigation support more
sustainable
development
Climate change
Biophysical effects
Environme
nt
Sustainable
development
Socio-economic
impacts
Social
dimensio
n
In turn, the pursuit of sustainable
development enhances society’s
response capacity
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Economy
Climate change and
environment
 Climate change is a theme to be addressed
with other environmental issues:
o Climate change exacerbates certain environmental trends
and problems
Credit: Proyecto Rio Hurtado,
EuropeAid Photo Library
 Environmental management has an impact on climate
change
Credit: Vietnamese journalist,
EuropeAid Photo Library
Climate change and MDGs
Reduce child
mortality
Eradicate
extreme poverty
& hunger (Goal 1)
e.g. Adverse
effects on
food security
Improve
maternal
health
(Goal 5)
e.g. Higher
incidence of
anaemia resulting
from malaria
(Goal 4)
e.g. Increased
incidence of
waterborne
diseases
Potential
impacts on
MDGs
(Goal 3)
e.g. Dependence
on livelihoods
put at risk by CC
Ensure
environmental
sustainability
Combat major
diseases (Goal 6)
e.g. Heat-related
mortality & illnesses
Source: OECD (2009a)
Promote gender
equality &
empower women
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(Goal 7)
e.g. Increased stress
on ecosystems and
biodiversity
The development–adaptation
continuum
Vulnerability
Response to impacts
Addressing the
drivers of
vulnerability
Building the
response
capacity
Managing climate
risk
(e.g. DRR)
Specifically
confronting
climate change
 Developmental
benefits
=> Developmental
and climate
adaptation benefits
=> Primarily
adaptation benefits,
developmental
benefits as a ‘side
effect’
=> Quasi-exclusive
focus on very
specific CC impacts,
adaptation benefits
only
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Benefits in the absence of climate change
Adapted from: McGray et al (2007), OECD (2009a), Olhoff & Schaer (2010)
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0
Moving to climate-resilient
development
Biophysical
impacts
Socioeconomic
impacts
Vulnerability
factors
Climate risk
management
Specific adaptation
measures
Development
(vulnerability
reduction)
activities
Climate risk
management
Specific adaptation
measures
Response capacity building
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The development path
addresses
current and
future
vulnerability,
risks and
impacts
Moving to low-emission
development
 Generally, the three ‘sectors’ that are the
biggest contributors to GHG emissions
are also the main targets for emission
reductions:
Energy (fossil-fuel
burning)
Agriculture
Land use change esp.
deforestation
 Country-specific emission patterns and
development objectives should be
considered to determine national
mitigation priorities
The development path
addresses
sources of
emissions
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Building on NAPAs and
NAMAs
 Many developing countries have now
submitted their NAPAs (& NAMAs) to the UNFCCC
o NAPAs = national adaptation programmes of action
 Help LDCs build national capacities and identify priority
adaptation projects with developmental benefits
o NAMAS = nationally appropriate mitigation actions
 These voluntary mitigation measures are consistent with a
country’s development strategy, and are meant to put it on
a more sustainable development path
 These are a good starting point for addressing the
climate challenge without compromising development
objectives
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Adaptation and mitigation:
seizing opportunities
 Green growth
o ‘A way to pursue economic growth and development, while
preventing environmental degradation, biodiversity loss and
unsustainable natural resource use’
Source: OECD (2010b)
 Green jobs
o Adaptation and mitigation as ‘opportunities’: development
co-benefits
 e.g. renewable energy
 e.g. clean technologies
 e.g. forestry (REDD+)
 e.g. agricultural productivity
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Adaptation and mitigation:
developing synergies
 Quite frequently adaptation and mitigation
measures are congruent and can produce a
double stream of benefits
o e.g. reduced tillage agriculture enhances carbon
sequestration in soils while supporting soil moisture
retention, thus increasing resilience to dry spells
o e.g. sustainable reforestation may simultaneously
enhance carbon stocks and, by offering new
livelihood opportunities, enhance the adaptive
capacity of local communities
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Adaptation and mitigation:
ensuring complementarity
 Mitigation should:
o Be compatible with adaptation policies and requirements
o Rely on environmentally sustainable practices
 e.g. unsustainable agrofuels may be a threat to food security, water
availability and ecosystems
o Not result in increased vulnerability to climate change
 Adaptation should:
o Take emissions into account
 e.g. agricultural intensification for improved food security may
increase emissions from the use of fertilisers
 e.g. the increased adoption of air conditioning to adapt to heat
waves may result in increased emissions from fossil
energy use
Moving to climate-resilient,
low-emission development
 Both climate-resilient development and lowemission development result from mainstreaming
climate change in policymaking and planning
Adaptation
mainstreaming
Mainstreaming of
climate change
mitigation
Climate-resilient
development
The two
approaches are
complementary
Low-emission
development
In both cases, focus
on co-benefits
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Turning words into action
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Discussion
 Questions and Answers
 Climate change challenge
What are the opportunities to address
climate change challenge in your sector
or at your level and what are the
institutional and capacity needs in your
organisation to do so?
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Presentation of case
studies
 Case studies: sharing of experiences of
events and natural hazards and their
impacts in different regions of the specific
country
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Learning process
exercise : Working group
 Exercise : select a development priority, a
policy, or a sector programme within the
country and discuss its implementation in
relation to the vulnerability concept
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Recap – Key messages
 Climate change is a development issue as
well as an environmental issue
o May jeopardise the achievement of the MDGs and other development
objectives
 Many interventions labelled ‘adaptation’ can also contribute to
‘development’ – and vice versa
 Adaptation (with a view to achieving climate-resilient development)
and mitigation (with a view to achieving low-emission development)
are complementary responses to climate change with the potential
to generate significant ‘co-benefits’ in terms of development
 Many uncertainties prevail and will persist over the evolution of the
climate but do not justify inaction
o Look for no-regret, low-regret and robust measures
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Key references
 IPCC (2007c) Climate Change 2007: Impacts,
Adaptation and Vulnerability. Cambridge University Press,
Cambridge, UK & New York, NY, USA. Available from: www.ipcc.ch
 IPCC (2007d) Climate Change 2007: Mitigation of Climate Change.
Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK & New York, NY, USA.
Available from: www.ipcc.ch
 Economics of Climate Adaptation Working Group
(2009) Shaping climate-resilient development: a framework for
decision-making. Climate Works Foundation, Global Environment
Facility, European Commission, McKinsey & Company, The
Rockfeller Foundation, Standard Chartered Bank & Swiss Re
 World Bank – Climate Change Knowledge Portal:
http://sdwebx.worldbank.org/climateportal/
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• Thank you
• Contact: Dr. Pendo MARO, ACP Secretariat
[email protected] or +32 495 281 494
www.gcca.eu/intra-acp
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