Transcript Presentation

European regional climate
change and the PRUDENCE
project
Ole Bøssing Christensen
DMI
IPCC AR4 CH. 11 structure
Jens H. Christensen (CLA)
Chapter 11 structure : Regional Climate Projections
Length:60 printed pages including all refs and figures, excl. FAQ
CLAs: Christensen and Hewitson
LAs: Busuioc, Chen, Gao, Held, Jones, Kwon, Laprise, Magana, Mearns, Menendez,
Räisänen, Rinke, Kumar, Sarr, Whetton
Executive summary (1-2 pages)
11.1 Introduction (3 pages)
11.1.1 The importance of regional projections
11.1.2 Summary of the TAR
11.1.3 Developments since the TAR
11.2 Assessment of Methods
11.2.1 Generating regional information (5 pages)
11.2.1.1 AOGCM results
11.2.1.2 High resolution AGCMs
11.2.1.3 Nested RCMs
11.2.1.4 Statistical downscaling
11.2.1.5 Pattern scaling of climate model simulations
11.2.1.6 Other methods
11.2.1.7 Inter-comparison of methods
11.2.2 Quantifying uncertainties (3-4 pages)
11.2.2.1 Sources of regional uncertainty
11.2.2.2 Methodological developments
11.3 Regional Projections (30 pages)
Details on following slides
11.4 Conclusions and discussion (1 page)
Chapter 11 structure : Regional Climate Projections
11.3 Regional Projections (30 pages)
11.3.1 Introduction to regions and relationship to WGII regions (1 page)
(Any sub-regions listed below may be further sub-divided if authors feel this is appropriate)
(Length: nominally 3-4 pages each)
11.3.2 Africa
Sahelian Africa
Horn of Africa / Arabian peninsula
Equatorial Africa
Southern Africa
11.3.3 Mediterranean and Europe
Mediterranean
Central and northern Europe
11.3.4 Asia
Central Asia
South Asia
East Asia
South east Asia / Maritime continent
11.3.5 North America
North America
11.3.6 Latin America
Central America / Caribbean
Northern South America
Southern South America
11.3.7 Australia and New Zealand
Australia/New Zealand
11.3.8 Polar
Arctic
Antarctic
11.3.9 Small Islands
Chapter 11 structure : Regional Climate Projections
BOX 11.1: Summary of AOGCM regional projections (2 pages)
Consistent method across regions, & to include uncertainty
Probabilistic statements based on AOGCMs, in coordination with Ch 10
BOX 11.2: Common aspects of small scale climate change : High altitude (1
page)
BOX 11.3: Common aspects of small scale climate change : Coastal (1 page)
Table 11.1: Extremes (1 page)
Summary table in collaboration with Ch 3,4,5,9,10 & WGII
FAQ
Proposed FAQ:
a) Does this report say anything about what will happen in my back yard?
b) Will the weather become more extreme?
c) How can I use regional information that is uncertain?
(Why are regional projections useful?)
d) What’s downscaling?
e) What’s wrong with extending recent regional trends?
IPCC WG1
schedule
PRUDENCE participants
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
9.
10.
11.
12.
13.
14.
15.
16.
17.
18.
19.
20.
21.
A.
B.
C.
D.
E.
F.
Danish Meteorological Institute, Copenhagen, DK
CINECA, Bologna, IT
Météo-France/CNRM, Toulouse, FRA
Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt e.V., Weßling, GER
Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research, Met Office, Bracknell, UK
Climate Research ETH (Eidsgenössische Technische Hochschule), Zürich, CH
GKSS Research Center (Institute for Coastal Research), Geesthacht, GER
Max-Planck-Institut für Meteorologie, Hamburg, GER
Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute, Rossby Centre, Norrköping, SWE
Universidad Complutense, Madrid, SP
Universidad Politecnica, Madrid, SP
International Centre for Theoretical Physics, Trieste, IT
Danish Institute of Agricultural Sciences, Foulum, DK
Risø National Laboratory, System Analysis Dept., DK
University of Fribourg, CH
Finnish Environmental Institute, Helsinki, FIN
University of Reading, UK
University of Lund, SWE
Centre International de Recherche sur l’Environnement et le Développement, SMASH, Paris, FRA
Climate Research Unit, University of East Anglia, UK
Finnish Meteorological Institute, Associated to FEI (No. 16), FIN
Norwegian Meteorological Institute, Blindern, NO
Royal Dutch Meteorological Institute, De Bilt, NL
UQAM, Montreal, CAN
CSIRO, Victoria, AUS
Czech Republic, Israel, Greece, Belgium, Slovakia………………..
Munich-Re, Electricité de France, Elforsk, Hamburg Institute of International Economics,
Uni-Münster, DG-Research, STARDEX, MICE
PRUDENCE objectives

A series of high resolution climate change scenarios for 2071-2100 for Europe

Characterize level of confidence and variability related to model formulations
and climate natural/internal variability

Assess the uncertainty in European regional scenarios resulting from model
formulation

Quantitatively assess the risks arising from changes in regional climate over
Europe, and estimate changes in extremes like heat waves, flooding and wind
storms, by providing a robust estimation of the likelihood and magnitude of the
changes

Demonstrate the value of the wide-ranging scenarios by applying them to
impacts models focusing on effects on adaptation and mitigation strategies

Assess socio-economic and policy related decisions for which such improved
scenarios could be beneficial

Disseminate the results of PRUDENCE widely …
A modelling system for detailed regional scenarios
– the PRUDENCE method
Coupled GCM
(300km atmosphere)
SST/sea-ice
change from
coupled GCM
Observed
SST/sea-ice
150km global
atmospheric
GCM
12-50km RCM
for relevant region
Quasi-ensemble probabilities
Precipitation change –
sources of uncertainty
C. Frei, ETH
95%-confidence:
internal
variability
Precipitation change –
sources of uncertainty
95%-confidence:
GCM formulation,
RCM formulation,
internal
variability
OBS: Slightly different values since the changes in
precipitation have been scaled to a 3 K change of
the global mean temperature
Probabilistic precipitation
change
Sensitivity x
signal
Variability sources in sub-areas
1 British Isles
2 Iberian peninsula
3 France
4 Central Europe
5 Scandinavia
6 Alps
7 Mediterranean
8 Eastern Europe
M. Déqué, Météo-France
Temperature change –
sources of uncertainty
100
DJF
90
80
% variance
70
60
RCM
Scenario
Forcing
Member
50
40
30
Depends on driving
model
20
10
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
subdomain
100
JJA
90
80
% variance
70
60
RCM
Scenario
Forcing
Member
50
40
30
20
10
0
1
2
3
4
5
subdomain
6
7
8
Also on RCM and
scenario
Precipitation change –
sources of uncertainty
100
DJF
90
80
% variance
70
60
RCM
Scenario
Forcing
Member
50
40
Driving GCM and
RCM
30
20
10
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
subdomain
100
JJA
90
80
% variance
70
60
RCM
Scenario
Forcing
Member
50
40
30
20
10
0
1
2
3
4
5
subdomain
6
7
8
RCM quite important
Baltic water balance
9 RCMs (2 GCMs) ~50 km
- 2 RCMs ~25 km A2
- 3 RCMs ~50 km B2
PRUDENCE work on extremes
Better understanding of how European weather
and climate extremes are likely to change:

Heat waves

Precipitation – heavy and low

Wind storms and storm surges
Precipitation extremes
Changes in HIRHAM 5-year return levels
5-day Winter precipitation
Summer 1-day precipitation
HIRHAM
 Increases over Europe except for decreases in south in summer
Sensitivity due to GCM and RCM resolution
ECHAM
Christensen & Christensen, Nature (2003)
HC 50km
HC 25km
JAS precipitation [mm/day]
Resolution 50km
90% wd
95% wd
99% wd
99.9% wd
JAS precipitation [mm/day]
Resolution 25km
90% wd
95% wd
99% wd
99.9% wd
JAS precipitation [mm/day]
Resolution 12km
90% wd
95% wd
99% wd
99.9% wd
Wind extremes
% change in 90th percentile of 10-metre wind speed
RCAO
 Increased wind speed intensity in core of Europe north of Alps
A2 changes in max winter surge heights
HIRHAM
Changes (meters) in max surge heights from HadAM3H / HIRHAM.
 Largest change of 0.3 metres on coasts near German bight
Conclusions
Warming of near-surface temperatures
•DJF: west/east gradient with strongest warming in the east
•JJA: north/south gradient with strongest warming in the south
Changes in precipitation
•DJF: mainly due to driving GCM but also due to RCM
•JJA: dryer conditions in all but northern Europe
Large ensemble of simulations allows for the generation of
probabilistic regional climate scenarios
Uncertainty of temperature changes
•DJF: mainly due to driving GCM
•JJA: also due to RCM and scenario
Uncertainty of changes in precipitation
•DJF: mainly due to driving GCM but also due to RCM
•JJA: to a large extent due to RCM
Conclusions
•Significant changes of the discharge into the Baltic
•Increased magnitude due to enhanced winter
precipitation
•Earlier peak due to earlier snow melt
Conclusions
• Heat waves – increased frequency, intensity, and duration of
summer heat waves
• Increase in interannual variability of temperature –Summer
2003 could become more likely
• Heavy precipitation – general increase except over S. Europe in
summer. Central Europe will have less rainy days, but probably
larger intensities
• Wind storms –increased intensity and frequency of high wind
speed events in winter
• Storm surges –increase in maximum storm surge level of up to
0.3 metres especially near the German Bight.
Near-surface temperature
change - DJF
Near-surface temperature
change - JJA