Transcript Pre-Payment Web Site Strategies and other Advance Selling

Insights from an integrated systems perspective
of household fuels and health in China
H. Keith Florig
Carnegie Mellon University
Presented at the
Workshop on Mitigation of Air Pollution and Climate Change in China
Norwegian Academy of Science and Letters, Oslo, Norway
October 17-19, 2004
1
“Co-benefits” and public policy goals
Policy domain
Climate change
Why stop
here?
Actions
Reduce GHG
emissions
Climate change & Reduce GHG &
public health
air pollution
Public welfare
Reduce GHG,
disease, illiteracy,
unemployment,
deforestation, etc.
2
Macro & micro intervention
Macro
intervention
Other stuff
Macro
driving
forces
Household
fuels
Household,
societal, &
environmental
impacts
Social
welfare
Micro
intervention
3
Influence diagram for rural household fuels
Rural capital
supply, farmer
credit
Rural
transportation
infrastructure
Urban
wealth
Trade WTO
Rural
nonfarm
employment
Household
labor burden
Appliance
ownership
Rural education
policy
Worker
productivity
Rural
education
Demand for
agricultural
products
Family
size
Electricity
price
Health care
policy
Rural
household
wealth
Agricultural
productivity
Agricultural
policy & land
tenure
system
Energy
policy
Rural energy
infrastructure
Floor
space
Space
heating
demand
Fuel
availability
& price
Soil
quality
Water
quality
Health
care
access
Rural
health
status
Cooking
demand
Stove
emissions
Stove/fuel
technology
Deforestation
Water
heating
demand
Nutrition
PM
exposure
Air polln
health
impacts
Smoking
Stove/fuel
preferences for
functionality
Climate
forcing
Tobacco
4
ads & taxes
Income Effects on Energy Choices
5
Income index (1978 = 100)
Relative per capita real rural income
600
500
2200 RMB
2000 median
400
300
200
100
0
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
Year
6
Rural non-farm employment,
millions
Employment in rural non-farm enterprises
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
Year
7
Percent Energy by Source
Rural Energy Consumption by Income
(World Bank 1996)
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
Dung
Biogas
Leaves and Grass
Straw and stalks
Firewood
Charcoal
Coal
Kerosene
0-175
yuan
175-298 298-485 485-900
yuan
yuan
yuan
900+
yuan
LPG
Electricity
Income
(Adapted from Worldbank Energy Sector Management Assistance Program Report 183/96, "Energy for Rural
Development in China: An Assessment Based on a Joint Chinese/ESMAP Study in Six Counties")
8
Commercial energy vs. income in rural China
(Wang & Feng 2003)
Average per capita rural net income is currently about 2000 RMB
Net per capita
income (Yuan)
Proportion of
commercial energy
< RMB 2000
(below median)
RMB 2000 – 4000
(“well off”)
> RMB 4000
(“wealthy”)
< 20%
20 - 50%
> 50%
From Wang and Feng, Renewable & Sustainable Energy Reviews, 7:545-552, 2003.
9
Appliance priorities in rural households
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
…
Lighting
Electric fan
TV & radio
Washing machine
Refrigerator
Electric cooking/heating
10
At the household level, cooking & heating
choices are based on multiple attributes
Fuel availability (e.g., central heating, piped gas
unavailable in many areas).
Economics: capital requirements, fuel price, fuel
efficiency, household income, subsidies
Functional ease: convenience, controllability,
evenness in time and space (heating)
Compatibility with traditional cooking styles
Cleanliness of surfaces (soot settling)
Health impacts (air pollution, safety, disease)
11
Other Income Effects
12
As wealth/income increases:
Demand for energy services grows
Access to health care improves
Living space expands
Persons per household declines
Smoking prevalence declines, but heavy smokers
smoke more
Nutrition improves
Education rises
13
Per capita net living space in rural areas
(China Stat Yrbk 2001)
Living space, sq. m.
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
Year
14
Dynamics
15
16
Time constants
Atmospheric residence times of particulates &
PICs (< month) vs. CO2 (centuries)
Rural infrastructure construction, e.g., gas
pipelines, roads (10-30 yrs)
Rural non-farm employment doubling (~10 yrs)
Rural real income doubling (~10 yrs)
Rural housing construction/urbanization (~5%/yr)
Permanent migration to cities (2% of rural pop/yr)
Solid  gas/liquid fuels transition (10-20 yrs)
Education of next generation (20 yrs)
17
A coalition of interested sectors
18
Household solid fuels as a commons problem
Climate effects
Health impacts beyond household
Exacerbates rural-urban inequality
Drains health care resources
Less healthy labor market
Lessens effectiveness of education
Burdens social security system
Damages ecosystems
19
Political economy of indoor air pollution
Common
stakeholder interest
in rural residential
solid fuels
Public
health
Climate
change
Rural
industry
Agriculture
Energy
Other interested
lobbies:
-Education
-Tobacco
-Ecosystem
protection
20
Rural investment options – which buys rural
residents the most utility per RMB?
Biogas digesters for cooking gas
Education
Industrial capital & micro-loans
Convert grain fields to export crops
Washing machine & refrigerator
Health clinics
Transportation infrastructure
21
Summary
Best policy prescriptions to address
household solid fuels problem depend on
how broadly “co-benefits” are defined
Mobilizing interventions for household
solid fuels may require a broader coalition
of stakeholders
22