Transcript Why the long view matters: social and climate change

Climate Change and Long-term
Sustainability of Human Societies
Why the long view matters for
Sustainability, Resilience, Policy
Margaret C. Nelson, Arizona State University
Tapping Our Understanding
of the Past
Dynamics of climate, environment, society
Presumptions about our past:
climate challenge
collapse
Humans and all aspects of the global
systems are integrally linked
Tradeoffs
No absolute resilience to climate challenges
Uncertainty and Tradeoffs
NORTH ATLANTIC
SOUTHWEST US
Rare climate events
have the greatest
impact: directly and
indirectly
Successful short-term
adaptation is no
guarantee of long-term
success
Tradeoffs Human
Securities
SOUTHWEST US
Human securities inform
understanding of life
under different conditions
No perfect achievement
of human securities: they
are dynamically traded
off depending on
decisions
Coupled Natural-Human Systems
Climate impacts on
social and political
relations
KURIL ISLANDS
Climate change is
inevitably a part of
complex social
adaptations and the
evolution of social
systems
Which climate changes matter?
MIMBRES
700
750
800
Reorganization to dispersed hamlets
850
900
950
1000
1050
1100
1150
Re-aggregation
1200
1250
1300
Regional depopulation
1350
1400
1450
Dry period
Very dry period
Precipitation reconstruction (Central Rio Grande) developed by Grissino-Mayer, Baisan, and Swetnam (1997). Droughts identified by Ingram (2008).
1500
Climate hazards and social longevity
CARIBBEAN
The past does not provide predictions for
future courses, but it provides examples,
experiments of sorts, by which we can
critically examine our ideas about resilience
and sustainability.
Case studies
NORTH ATLANTIC ISLANDS
Andrew Dugmore (University of Edinburgh) and
Scott Ingram (Arizona State University)
SOUTHWEST US
Michelle Hegmon (Arizona State University)
KURIL ISLANDS
Ben Fitzhugh (University of Washington)
CARIBBEAN ISLANDS
Jago Cooper (University College London)
Discussion:
Thomas McGovern (City University New York)