Transcript 30-year wait - Hong Kong Climate Change Forum

Climate Change
- Meteorologists in Action
C Y Lam
Hong Kong Observatory
Paris, 2 February 2007
• IPCC – The evidence for human-caused
global warming is now “unequivocal”.
• Now accepted by most, taken for granted
• But, it has taken three decades to reach this
position.
The 30-year Journey
380 ppm
330 ppm
(background figure after IPCC, 2007)
WMO & Meteorologists
• Rational approach: data & research
• Engagement: partners & stakeholders,
impacts & responses
• Community level: attitude change,
teach & preach
st
1
WMO statement, 1976
• Carbon dioxide – 330 ppm
• Accumulation of carbon dioxide – potential
impact on climate vs natural variability
• Food as key issue, other disruptions too
1st World Climate Conference, 1979
(WMO, UNEP, FAO UNESCO, WHO)
• “a gradual warming of the lower atmosphere
appears plausible”
• “some effects …. detectable before the end
of this century”
• Declaration: urgent actions to improve
knowledge and to foresee & prevent
potential man-made changes
WMO World Climate Programme, 1979
•
•
•
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Data
Applications
Research
Impacts on human activities
Multiple international partners
Data
• WMO Global Observing System – based on national
meteorological services
• WMO Global Atmospheric Watch – specialized
network to measure atmospheric composition
• Global Climate Observing System (GCOS), 1992 –
WMO, IOC-UNESCO,UNEP, ICSU
• 380 ppm, 0.74°C/100 years (IPCC, 2007)
Research
• World Climate Research Programme, 1985
• WMO, ICSU, IOC-UNESCO
• Large scale projects, all climate components
• Underpins UNFCCC & IPCC assessments
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
WMO & UNEP,1988
• Assessment reports based on published
literature, covering:
– state of climate
– potential impact
– policy options in response
• 1st report, 1990; 4th report 2007
2nd World Climate Conference, 1990
(WMO, UNEP, UNESCO, IOC, FAO, ICSU)
• Carbon dioxide 350 ppm
• After 1st IPCC Assessment Report
• Ministerial Declaration:
– noted unprecedented rate of climate change
predicted by IPCC
– association with greenhouse gases
– call for negotiations →UNFCCC 1992
– well-informed public
The Long Journey
+20ppm
(background figure after IPCC, 2007)
30 years after 1st WMO Statement
• IPCC 4th Assessment Report, 2007
– “warming of the climate system is
unequivocal”
– “very likely due to the observed increase
in anthropogenic greenhouse gas
concentrations”
The Long Journey
“unequivocal”
after
+50 ppm
↑
30-year
wait
↓
(background figure after IPCC, 2007)
Current general acceptance of
human-induced climate change
• It came about not by accident
• But by meteorologists
– sounding the alarm 30 years ago
– organizing observations & research
– engaging partners & stakeholders
Reaching Out
- Teach and Preach
• A well-informed public – the
responsibility of meteorological
services working at the “local” level
• Must be based on
– Observations
– Understanding of the phenomenon
– Projections into the future
Hong Kong Observatory
• Records since 1884
• Announced observed trends
• Also urbanization effects
• Projections for 21st century
Relating to people
People don’t appreciate :
“3.5°C rise in temperature in 21st century”
“Temperature varies more than this in a day.
What is the problem?”
“No winter by the end of the century”
“Less than one cold
day per winter.”
“cold winter no more”
Hong Kong, August 2004
Reaching out to people
press conference
open
day
radio &
TV
The public & green groups
partnering with
green groups
lectures for students
public
lectures
Road blocks
• Low public interest relative
to economic and social issues
• Lack of sense of being
“immediate” and “close”
• “Small city” psychology, but
actually 0.1% of world
population
More teaching and preaching
• Information on trend,
potential impacts,
basic causes and
what people can do
• A matter of attitude
and life style
• Education package
& school activities
• More partners
Meteorologists
– not purely scientists
• We sounded the alarm; now we should
enable people to respond.
• Reach out, with clear message for people.
• Climate change is multi-disciplinary by
nature; engage full spectrum of partners.
Another 30 years for action? “unequivocal”
after
+50 ppm
↑
30-year
wait
↓
(background figure after IPCC, 2007)
WMO & meteorologists
will act together with all
to stop the world
drifting irreversibly into a state
unsuitable for human habitation.
We cannot wait for
another 30 years.