Transcript Session 4 – Climate controversies

Science and Politics
Part II
Climate Controversies
Session 4
1. The discovery of climate change
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Discovery of the greenhouse effect by
Joseph Fourier (1824-1827)
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John Tyndall identifies carbon dioxyde
as a driver of the greenhouse effect
(1860-1870). Water vapor is the main
gas that controls temperature. First
measurements of air quality.
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Law of Arrhenius (1896):
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If the quantity of carbonic acid rises following a
geometric progression, the resulting rise in temperature
will follow an arithmetic progression.
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He establishes that a doubling of CO2 quantity in the atmosphere would
lead to a temperature rise comprised between 5 and 7°C.
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According to Arrhenius, the doubling of CO2 would take about 3000
years. It will actually take ony about one century.
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Roger Revelle makes the first
measurements of CO2 concentration in
the 1950s. He shows that climate change
is linked to human activity(1956).
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James Hansen shows that climate change
is happening faster than expected. His
testimony before US Congress marks the
entry of climate change into the realm of
politics.
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1957: First measurements in Hawai’i and Antarctica
1970s: James Hansen starts modelling climate change
Jimmy Carter commissions a report by the American
Academy of Sciences
Reagan, Bush and Clinton don’t care, Gore worries but he’s only VP.
The establishment of
a scientific consensus
Scientists in the policy process
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Increasingly present
Especially in policy fields where knowledge is technical
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Are they neutral?
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We assume that they are, but:
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Epistemic communities (Haas & Keohane)
Advocacy coalitions (Sabatier & Jenkins-Smith)
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Science and expertise
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Is it the same thing?
Science for the sake of it, or science for policy
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Are experts different from scientists?
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Often the same people
Are they neutral?
Do they have to be neutral?
2. At the core of the policy process:
The IPCC
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Created in 1988
Key-role in the policy-making process:
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Establish a common scientific basis for the negotiation
An intergovernmental organisation… in which governments
play a role
The creation of the IPCC
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Established in 1988 jointly by UNEP and WMO
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Open to all member countries of UNEP and WMO
Main task: assess the risks and impacts of climate change
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At the request of sceintists themselves, concerned that science was
not followed by policy actions.
The IPCC doesn’t conduct research directly, but synthesises the best
research on the topic.
And make it accessible to policy-makers.
Main outcome: the Assessment Reports, issued every 5 or 6
years (5 reports so far)
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5th Assessment Report due in October 2014.
A political history
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The consensus on climate science was the IPCC’s key
endeavour
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Process started in the 1980s
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Whistle-blower role
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A key episode: the replacement of Dr Watson
Dr. Robert Watson, the highly respected leader of the Inter-Governmental
Panel on Climate Change, was blackballed in a memo to the White House
from the nation's largest oil company. The memo had its effect last Friday,
when Dr.Watson lost his bid for re-election after the administration threw
its weight behind the ''let's drag our feet'' candidate, Dr. Rajendra
Pachauri of New Delhi, who is known for his virulent anti-American
statements.
Why is this happening?
Because the largest polluters know their only hope for escaping
restrictions lies in promoting confusion about global warming.
Just as Enron needed auditors who wouldn't blow the whistle when the
company lied about the magnitude of its future liabilities, the
administration needs scientific reviews that won't sound the alarm on the
destruction of the earth's climate balance.
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Al Gore, NY Times, 21 avril 2002.
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U.S. to Back Scientist From India To Replace Global
Warming Expert
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Auto manufacturers and oil companies have long seen Dr.Watson
as a foe, and their lobbyists have said that Dr. Pachauri, who has
worked with industry in the past, was clearly preferable.
- A. Revkin, NY Times, 3 avril 2002.
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Dr. Pachauri heads the Tata Energy Research Institute in New Delhi;
Tata is one of India's largest industrial groups.
NY Times, 20 avril 2002.
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Mr. Gore's derogatory statements about me reflect deep
disappointment at my election as chairman of the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, with 76 votes for
me against 49 for his protégé, Dr. Robert T.Watson.
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R.K. Pachauri, NY Times, May 1st, 2002.
And yet, five years later…
Composition and neutrality
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About 2,500 (unpaid) scientists, appointed by their
government: lead authors, contributing authors, reviewers.
A balance between:
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Junior and senior researchers
Men and women
Researchers from developped and developing countries
Key assumption: collective neutrality emerges from the
addition of individual subjectivities.
Structure of the IPCC
The scientific process
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The IPCC does not carry out any research
The Assessment Reports are just a synthesis of previously
published works
Triple peer-reviewing
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Peer-review at the time of publication of original works
Scientific peer-review by experts
Political peer-review by governments
The reports need to be approved by both all scientists and all
governments: they are bpth a scientific and a political
document
Reports organised on the basis of scenarios
A political actor?
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The IPCC reports pave the way for policy milestones:
UNFCCC 1992, Kyoto 1997
Interferences from governments
Attacked as a political actor, yet responds as a scientific
actor.
Comments and criticisms
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Highly authoritative, due to intensive peer-reviewing
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Minimal consensus
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But this authority is currently being questioned: ‘climate gate’, mistake
about the Himalaya glaciers, etc.
The IPCC as a political actor
How to address these criticisms?
Can we doubt about climate science?
Are the reports too prudent and conservative?
Scenarios underestimate reality
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Need for revision
Need for a global reform of the IPCC?
3. Climate skepticism
Memo by F. Luntz
2003
The scientific debate
remains open. Voters
believe that there is
no consensus about
global warming within
the scientific community.
(…) You need to
continue to make the
lack of scientific
certainty a primary
issue in the debate…
The climate gate
From: Phil Jones <[email protected]>
To: [email protected]
Subject: Fwd: CCNet: PRESSURE GROWING ON CONTROVERSIAL
RESEARCHER TO DISCLOSE SECRET DATA
Date: Mon Feb 21 16:28:32 2005
Cc: "raymond s. bradley" <[email protected]>, "Malcolm Hughes"
<[email protected]>
Mike, Ray and Malcolm, The skeptics seem to be building up a head of steam
here ! Maybe we can use this to our advantage to get the series updated !...
…The IPCC comes in for a lot of stick. Leave it to you to delete as
appropriate !
Cheers
Phil
PS I'm getting hassled by a couple of people to release the CRU station
temperature data. Don't any of you three tell anybody that the UK has
a Freedom of Information Act !
P. Jones:
“I’ve just completed Mike’s Nature trick of adding in the
real temps to each series for the last 20 years (i.e from
1981 onwards) and from 1961 for Keith’s to hide the
decline.”
> Wrongly and over-interpreted by the media and
climate sceptics
Are the media guilty?
25
Paul N. Edwards
28 October 2010
4. Communicating climate change
Main issues
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Communicate science
Stimulate action
Make climate change taken for granted
Mainstream climate change into politics
Different repertoires
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Alarmist
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Small actions
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‘Climate porn’
Maximising the problem and minimising the solution
Tackling climate change seems easy, cheap and even fun
Economic benefits
Techno-optimism
‘There’s nothing to do’
‘We’ll be fine anyway’
> Are these divergent repertoires an asset or a problem?
Problems in communicating climate change
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Uncertainties
Seasonal variations
Complexity
Impact of small actions (free-riding)
Multiplicity of actors
Skepticism
Long-term effects
Ideological views
Role of the media
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Creating bias where there’s consensus
Climate skeptics
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Main arguments
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Climate change is not occurring
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The global climate is actually getting colder
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The global climate is getting warmer,
but not because of human activities
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The global climate is getting warmer,
in part because of human activities, but this will
create greater benefits than costs
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The global climate is getting warmer, in part
because of human activities, but the impacts are
not sufficient to require any policy response
Public opinions
BBC Climate change poll –
February 2010
ADEME Report 2013
One Frenchman out of three is a climate-sceptic
The older you get, the more sceptical you are