Transcript PPT - IGOS Cryosphere

WCRP Climate and Cryosphere (CliC) Project
CRYSYS – Cryosphere System in Canada
Dr. Barry Goodison
CLIVAR 1995 
ACSYS/CliC 1994–2003/2000 
WGNE
WGCM
WGSF
WOCE 1990-2002
TOGA
1985-1994
GEWEX 1988 
SOLAS 2001 ->
SPARC 1992
CliC Goal and Objectives
Principal Goal:
Assess and quantify the impacts that climatic variability and
change have on components of the cryosphere and the
consequences of these impacts for the climate system, and
to determine the stability of the global cryosphere
Supporting Objectives:
• Enhance the observation & monitoring of the cryosphere in support
of process studies, model evaluation and change detection
• Improve understanding of the physical processes and feedbacks
through which the cryosphere interacts within the climate system
• Improve the representation of cryospheric processes in models to
reduce uncertainties in simulation of climate and predictions of
climate change (role of the cryosphere on predictability of the
climate system)
• Facilitate assessment of changes in the cryosphere and their
impact, and to use this information to aid in the detection of
climate change
Countries Where Cryosphere Occurs
95 countries identified with cryospheric components
Cryosphere truly is global
Current CliC Project Structure
WCRP
CliC International
Project Office
(CIPO)
Observation
Products
Panel
(OPP)
CliC
Scientific Steering Group
(SSG)
Numerical
Experimentation
Group
(NEG)
Data Management
and
Information Panel
(DMIP)
Rapporteur
on ASR
National Committees/contacts
CLIVAR/CliC
Southern Ocean
Panel
Arctic Climate Panel
Rapporteur on
IPCC
WG on
Precipitation
in Cold
Regions
CliC SSG
Arctic Climate Panel
(with CLIVAR?)
Southern Ocean Implementation
Panel (with CLIVAR, SCAR)
Data & Products Panel
Cryospheric Observations
Panel
Modelling Panel
CPA1 Advisory Group
CPA2 Advisory Group
CPA4 Advisory Group?
Rapporteurs:
IPCC
Re-analysis
Alpine Cryosphere
CliC Implementation Strategy
CliC Project Areas
CPA1. Terrestrial cryosphere and hydrometeorology of
cold regions (Tatiana Khromova, RB, DK, TO, BG)
CPA2. Glaciers, ice caps and ice sheets, and their
relation to sea level (Koni Steffen, JZ)
CPA3. High Latitude oceans and the marine cryosphere
(Ian Allison, CM, AW)
CPA4. Linkages between the cryosphere and global
climate (John Turner, CM, TF)
CliC Initiatives
• Joint Panel Project: Observed changes in the global cryosphere
over the 20th century
• produce a substantive review paper synthesizing observed
changes in all components of the cryosphere over as much of the
globe as possible.
• provide significant input from CliC to WG1 cryosphere chapter in
upcoming IPCC Fourth Assessment Report
• International Polar Year
• CliC is lead for WCRP
• IASC/ICARPII
• IASC International Conference on Arctic Research Planning II –
fall 2005 – Copenhagen - WCRP is a sponsoring agency
• IGOS-P Cryosphere
• link to CliC CPA’s
Changes in the Cryosphere during the 20th Century
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Symbols are identified at right.
Red indicates change is consistent with warming.
Blue indicates change is consistent with cooling.
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River – less
Lake – less
Sea-ice – less
Snow – less
Glacier – less
Ice sheet – less
Permafrost – less
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River – more
Lake - more
Sea-ice – more
Snow – more
Glacier – more
Ice Sheet – more
Permafrost -- more
Where We Are
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SCAR becomes a co-sponsor
MOA with IPA
ACSYS CD
Arctic Panel formed – Cecilie Mauritzen chair
GCOS – continued interaction to ensure cryosphere captured
GEO/GEOSS – input at national/international levels
IGOS-P Cryosphere – Jeff Key and OPP
WCRP COPES – how does CliC contribute?
Interactions with other groups – carbon, water, weather
ICSI – Commission on the Cryospheric Sciences
CliC/IGS/ICSI Symposium on Cryo as Indicator of Climate Change
(2006)
ICARPII (November 2005)
International Polar Year – Ian Allison, Vladimir Kotlyakov
CliC 1st Science Conference (April 11-15 2005, Beijing)
CHALLENGES for CliC
• CliC – cryosphere is gaining prominence –people care about
snow and ice; it is in the media regularly; it affects people’s lives
in northern communities; it affects economic development
• We have a constituency or users broader than the scientific
community – it is not just an academic exercise
• To move forward:
– WE NEED EVERYONE’S HELP AND CONTRIBUTIONS DURING
THE YEAR
– Secretariat and CIPO being run ragged
• FUTURE:
– White, bright, busy, challenging, engaging
• To Succeed we need everyone’s ideas, help, suggestions and
hard work
CRYSYS
NASA IDS Project
CSA Government Related Initiatives Program (GRIP)
• “Cryospheric System in Canada” recompeted successfully in 2003
as a NASA IDS project for next 3 years
• highly rated in peer review
• project is a sub-set of CRYSYS team members who responded
to the call to participate in the NASA IDS.
• CSA GRIP project “The Cryosphere and its Response to Climate
Change” addresses IDS objectives and other ongoing CRYSYS
research activities that address MSC and CSA objectives.
NASA IDS Project
1. How are global ecosystems changing?
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Improved passive-microwave SWE mapping (Derksen, Goita, Walker)
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Validation of EOS cryospheric products (Agnew, De Abreu, Derksen,
Fernandes, Walker)
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Integrated retrievals of sea ice type and thermodynamic state from AMSRE (Barber)
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Diurnal and seasonal snow covered sea ice process studies using surface
and satellite based polarimetric microwave remote sensing data (Yackel)
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Development and analysis of a long term land surface temperature
database from spaceborne passive microwave data for the northern high
latitude environment (Royer et al. )
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Development of approaches for monitoring river ice and frozen ground
with SAR (Bernier et al.)
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Monitoring glacier mass balance and glacier contributions to streamflow
(Demuth - National Glacier Monitoring Programme, GSC/NWRI)
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Monitoring permafrost temperature, active layer thickness, and permafrost
sensitivity to warming (Smith – National Permafrost Monitoring
Programme, GSC)
2. How is global sea level affected by climate change?
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Determining Canadian Arctic glacier contributions to sea level rise (Sharp)
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Validation of CryoSat (Demuth and Sharp)
3. How are variations in local weather, precipitation and water resources
related to global climate variation?
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Detailed evaluation of snow cover simulated by the Canadian Regional Climate
Model (CRCM) for contrasting land surface types (Mackay and Derksen)
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Examination of scaling issues in the representation of snow processes in
CRCM (Derksen and Walker)
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Assimilation of remotely sensed snowpack data into the WATCLASS coupled
land surface process hydrological model (Fassnacht)
4. What are the consequences of climate and sea level changes and
increased human activities on coastal regions?
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CRYSYS contributing (in advisory role) to GMES Northern View project which
includes projects looking at the implications of changes in the near-shore ice
complex (NIC) on shoreline erosion in the Gulf of St. Lawrence and the
Beaufort Sea, and the development of an operational ice edge monitoring and
forecasting product for use in northern communities.
5. How well can long-term climate trends be assessed or predicted?
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Evaluation of the representation of high latitude snow cover processes in
climate models (Mackay and Marsh)
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Modelling and validation of arctic snow distribution and melt at the local
and meso-regional scales (Young and colleagues)
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Merging of satellite and in situ data for assessing variability and change in
SWE (Derksen and Walker)
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Investigation of the role of the Arctic Oscillation and sea ice feedbacks in
the Eastern Canadian Arctic and Beaufort Sea (LeDrew)
6. How well can cycling of carbon through the Earth system be
modeled, and how reliable are predictions of future atmospheric
concentrations of carbon dioxide and methane by these models?
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Understanding the role of ice crusts and lenses on GHG emissions
(Bernier)
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BERMS
• The proposed research activities contribute to several ESA initiatives
related to the cryosphere (CryoSat and GMES), and to a number of
international scientific projects (ArcticNet, ACSYS/CliC, BERMS, CALM,
CASES, GEWEX, GCOS, GTN-P, GTN-G, MAGICS and SEARCH).
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• The CRYSYS project has made significant advances in the areas of data
rescue/sharing and outreach over the period since 1999. The Canadian
Cryospheric Information Network (CCIN) was established at the
University of Waterloo in collaboration with the Canadian Space Agency
and the private sector (www.ccin.ca). The ‘State of the Canadian
Cryosphere” website (www.socc.ca) has continued to be developed as
part of the CCIN to provide information and outreach.
We must integrate these initiatives and make sure we see the
bigger picture and address the science questions that need to
be answered to increase our knowledge of climate and
cryosphere science to contribute to policy and socioeconomic issues
Objectives for CSA Project
“The Cryosphere and its Response to Climate Change”
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Documenting areal and volume changes of Canadian Arctic Ice Caps
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Calibration and validation of the CryoSat altimeter
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Improved monitoring of snow cover from space
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Improved monitoring of sea ice from space
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Improved monitoring of freshwater ice from space
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Improved monitoring of frozen ground from space
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Improved representation of the cryosphere in climate and hydrological
models
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Improved understanding of cryosphere-climate feedbacks
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Develop and maintain a Canadian Cryospheric Information Network
(CCIN)
Note – many of these are also part of the NASA IDS project
GRIP review by EOMB Mar 23 2004
Integrated Studies, Joint Projects
CEOP
Supersites for
COPE?
 Produce baseline
terrestrial cryosphere
products for model
validation and
climatological
assessment
Supersite
Scaling
SWE March 1 2005
CRYSYS – the Future
• Must continue to deliver new knowledge and information
to meet its objectives as a cryosphere IDS team
• Must continue to demonstrate the important contribution
of satellite data to “cryosphere and climate change”
in support of CSA, MSC and other national and
international initiatives
• CRYSYS transition to “CliC Canada”
• CRYSYS is recognized internationally
• Canada is seen as a key player in CliC
• must build a strong partnership within the Canadian
cryosphere community to contribute to CliC
•Must get on with establishing a “CliC Canada/CRYSYS” structure
to develop and implement Canada’s contribution to CliC
Thoughts for IGOS-P Cryosphere
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What is the motivation for this effort?
Why is cryosphere important?
ACIA
It is not just cryosphere for climate – all applications
Not just remote sensing
Don’t forget in-situ networks
What are the cryosphere gaps – from all methods of observation
Antarctica?
Alpine regions of the world
Cryosphere is global
Data management
Links to GCOS, other IGOS-P, GEOSS- lot done (eg Canada)
Lot of reports on needs for obs have been prepared – let’s use
them and not try to reinvent the wheel – update and expand
• Solid precipitation, snow, sea-ice, freshwater ice, glaciers, ice
caps and ice sheets, permafrost and frozen ground