Transcript 1.5Mb - European Topic Centre for Air Pollution and Climate Change

Indicators of Climate Change in the UK
Melvin G R Cannell
OECD Pressure – State – Response Concept
Pressure
Human activities
State
Response
Stocks and quality of resources Management or policies
Industrial activity
Pressure
Greenhouse gas
concentrations
State
Climate Change
Hydrology and sea level
Plant, animal and human
behavioural responses
Response
Pressure
State
Pressure
State/Response
State
Response
State/Response
Response
Policy responses
Indicators of Climate Change in the UK
34 Indicators
Climate, hydrology, sea level and air pollution (11)
Temperature. Precipitation. NAO. River flows. Groundwater.
Sea level. Thames barrage. Ozone.
Insurance, energy, tourism and fire (5)
Property claims. Gas use. Tourist trips. Skiing. Fires.
Health (2)
Lyme disease. Seasonal mortality.
Agriculture and Forestry (8)
Irrigation. Potato yield. Grapes and maize. Summer grass.
Leaf emergence. Tree health.
Insects and Birds (5)
Insect activity. Swallow arrival. Bird egg-laying and abundance.
Marine and Freshwaters (3)
Marine plankton. Salmon behaviour. Lake ice.
Indicators of Climate Change in the UK
Criteria for selection of variables
1.
State variables (climate, sea level, hydrology) as well as response
variables (plants, animals, sector behaviour).
2.
Response variables known to be sensitive to climate.
3.
Should have long historic time series to
- establish climate sensitivity
- provide baseline
4.
Quality records available at low cost into the future.
5.
Readily understandable to the public.
Indicators of Climate Change in the UK
Cautionary points – the reality
•
No assumption that climate trends and responses to climate are
driven by increasing greenhouse gas concentrations.
•
Few things change in response to climate alone. There are pitfalls in
interpreting trends.
•
Final selection determined very much by the data available, so
impossible to cover some important responses to climate or give a
balanced picture.
•
The UK list preliminary, and aims only to detect change and alert
public interest.
Website: www.nbu.ac.uk/iccuk/
Indicators of Climate Change in the UK
Trend over time
Sea level
Thames barrier closures
Subsidence claims
Outdoor fires
Lyme disease cases
Use of irrigation water
Date of tree leafing
Arrival of swallow
Egg-laying dates of birds
No obvious time trend
Skiing in Scotland
Groundwater levels in chalk
Indicators of Climate Change in the UK
Hot, dry summers
More domestic tourism
More rural ozone
More Lyme disease
More irrigation
Less healthy beech
More insects
Late migration of salmon
Mild winters/springs
Poor skiing
Lower winter mortality
Early tree leafing
Early insect appearance
Early breeding of birds
Indicators of Climate Change in the UK
Seasonality
Proportion of gas use in winter
Seasonal human mortality
Tree leaf emergence
Insect appearance
Arrival of swallow
Egg-laying date of birds
Migration of salmon upstream
Change not wholly justified by climate perception? Other factors?
Area of vineyards
Area of forage maize
Irrigated potato area
Air temperature in central England
No. days >20°C
No. days <0°C
Precipitation gradient across the UK
Scotland, winter
SE England, summer
Predominance of westerly weather in winter
Risk of tidal flooding in London
Thames Barrier closures per year
Scottish skiing industry
Domestic holiday tourism
Incidence of Lyme disease in humans
Warm-weather crops:
grapes
forage maize
Use of irrigation water for agriculture
(England & Wales)
Proportion of potato crop that is irrigated
(England and Wales)
Arrival date of the swallow
Insect abundance
Egg-laying dates of birds
Other Indicators suggested during UK consultation
Climate and ocean
Air temperature in more regions
Air temperature in the uplands
Extremes of temperature and rainfall
Incidence of late frosts
Growing season length; day degrees
Number of sunshine hours
Cirrus cloud and condensation trails
Gulf Stream position
Sea surface temperature
Salinity of sea water
Socio-economic
Air conditioner sales
‘Warm climate’ product sales
Sale of slug pellets
Amount of salt used on roads
Public water use per capita
Irrigation use on golf courses
Plants and animals/natural environment
Geographic ranges of crops
Date of leaf fall
Dates and levels of pollen in air
Algal blooms on lakes
Flowering times, eg. Hawthorn
Smolt age of migrating salmon
Spawning of natterjack toad
Sea fish and marine plants
Butterfly ranges, eg. Gatekeeper, comma, large skipper
Overwintering birds, eg. Blackcap, chiffchaff, common sandpiper
Value of Indicators
• Quantitative simplification of complex changes.
• Indicative change for policy and decision-makers.
• Inform the general public; enable people to judge for themselves.
• Things to watch relative to predictions.
But:
• Individually of limited value.
• Rarely statistically sound, in that the percentage variation due to climate can
be calculated.
• May not vary for the reason the indicator is chosen. Thus, can be misleading.
• Do not explain why change is occurring.
• Can be overloaded with confusing opposing trends and miss the key trends.
• Media can highlight particular items and distort the picture.