Transcript New concepts and ideas in air pollution strategies

New concepts and ideas
in air pollution strategies
Richard Ballaman
Chairman of the Working Group
on Strategies and Review
Future challenges
Accession to protocols by as many Parties as
possible
Effective implementation of Protocols by EECCA
countries
Further reduction of emissions: NH3, NOx, VOC,
SO2, HMs and POPs
Derive new and lower NECs
Good cooperation on transatlantic or
hemispheric issues: Hg, O3, PM and POPs
What remains to be done ?
Reduce acidification, especially from NH3
Decrease eutrophication (N deposition)
Limit violations of AOT40 CL to avoid vegetation
damage
Decrease O3 as significant cause of premature
death
Decrease population exposure to PM
Health & environmental impact
(RAINS_BL_CLE, August 2004, C. Agren)
Estimated loss in SLE in EU25 from
anthropogenic PM2.5 (months)
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
2000
2010
2020
Percentage forest area in EU25 with acid
deposition exceeding critical loads
25
Percentage ecosystem area in EU25 with
nitrogen deposition exceeding critical loads
70
60
20
50
15
40
10
30
20
5
10
0
0
2000
2010
2020
2000
2010
2020
Acid deposition to forests
(IIASA)
2000
2010
2020
Percentage of forest area with acid deposition above critical loads,
using ecosystem-specific deposition.
Average of calculations for 1997, 1999, 2000 & 2003 meteorologies
Excess of critical loads for eutrophication
(IIASA)
2000
2010
2020
Percentage of ecosystems area with nitrogen deposition above
critical loads, using grid-average deposition.
Average of calculations for 1997, 1999, 2000 & 2003 meteorologies
Vegetation-relevant ozone concentrations
AOT40 [ppm.hours] (IIASA)
2000
2010
2020
Critical level for forests = 5 ppm.hours
Average of calculations for 1997, 1999, 2000 & 2003 meteorologies
2000
2010
Slovenia
Slovakia
Poland
Lithuania
Latvia
Hungary
Estonia
Czech Rep.
UK
Sweden
Spain
Portugal
Netherlands
Luxembourg
Italy
Ireland
Greece
Germany
France
Finland
Denmark
Belgium
Austria
Premature deaths attributable to ozone
[cases/year] (IIASA)
5000
4000
3000
2000
1000
0
2020
Provisional calculations with 50X50 km resolution
Loss in life expectancy attributable to
anthropogenic PM2.5 [months]
(IIASA)
2000
2010
2020
Average of calculations for 1997, 1999, 2000 & 2003 meteorologies
2000
2010
2020
Total EU-25
Total NMS
Slovenia
Slovakia
Poland
Malta
Lithuania
Latvia
Hungary
Estonia
Czech Rep.
Total EU-15
UK
Sweden
Spain
Portugal
Netherlands
Luxembourg
Italy
Ireland
Greece
Germany
France
Finland
Denmark
Belgium
Austria
Loss in life expectancy
attributable to anthropogenic PM2.5
[months]
15
12
9
6
3
0
Source: RAINS / IIASA
What can be done ?
Use PM health effects as driving force to further
reduce emissions of primary and secondary
pollutants
Identify the potential for new technical measures
(define BAT to derive ELV)
Make use of synergies to abate air pollution and
avoid climate change
Consider structural changes and alternative
energy policies
Multi pollutants / multi effects approach
with new pollutants and additional problems
CO2
N 2O
CH4
CO
Acidification
Climate change
SO2
NH3
Eutrophication
Particulate matter
NOx
NMVOC
Tropospheric ozone
HMs
primary
PM
Population exposure
POPs
Multi pollutants / multi effects approach:
extended version with new avenues for action
CO2
N 2O
CH4
CO
Acidification
Climate change
SO2
NH3
Eutrophication
Particulate matter
NOx
NMVOC
Tropospheric ozone
HMs
primary
PM
Population exposure
POPs
Emissions 1990 – 2020
(RAINS BL_ CLE, Aug. 04)
Sea regions
Rem. Eur.
EU10 new
EU15 old
50000
40000
20000
16000
30000
12000
20000
8000
10000
4000
0
0
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2010
2015
2020
VOC emissions
SO2 emissions
7500
7500
6000
6000
4500
4500
3000
3000
1500
1500
0
0
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
NOx emissions (in kTonnes N)
2015
2020
1990
1995
2000
2005
NH3 emissions (in kTonnes N)
Source categories to further consider
Ships, diesel vehicles, off-road sector
Industrial processes, solvents
Small combustion (wood burning)
Agriculture (animal housing, manure storage
and spreading)
Retrofitting of existing sources
Increased use of alternative fuels (fuel switching)
Relevance of sources will change
Cattle number 
Milk productivity per animal 
NH3 emissions 
EF per veh. 
Road traffic (driven mileage) 
Total emissions 
Diesel engines 
PM 
Aviation  
Shipping 
Total emissions 
NOx
Long term exposure to PM and risk of mortality
in ACS cohort
TFH 2003: “..apply the relative risk for all cause mortality… in the extended
American Cancer Society (ACS) cohort study Pope et al. (2002).”
WHO European Centre for Environment and Health
Source: Pope et al, JAMA 2002
Possible challenges beyond 2010
Increase life expectancy of European population
by at least 6 months
Reduce by 50% remaining excess of
acidification and eutrophication
Contribute to the avoidance of climate change
by reducing O3 and PM concentrations,
as well as abatement of CH4 and CO emissions
on a regional scale