Transcript - iGrid - CSIRO Intelligent Grid Cluster

3 Steps to Zero EmissionsIntelligent Grid, Electric Cars and Solar Energy
Chris Dunstan
Research Principal- Institute for Sustainable Futures, UTS
Presentation to ANZSES NSW
23 June 2009
Summary





Intelligent Grid Research Program
Network Investment: Bigger or smarter?
Australian Distributed Energy Roadmap
Electric Cars
Solar Energy
e.g. permanent Arctic
ice may disappear by
2030
Reduced ice albedo
(reflectivity)
= positive feedback
... the melting of
Greenland ice cap
may become
unstoppable and
raise global sea level
by 7 metres
International Climate Science Congress
(Copenhagen March 2009)
Key Messages:
“1. Climatic trends:
Recent observations show that greenhouse gas emissions and many
aspects of the climate are changing near the upper boundary of the
IPCC range of projections. Many key climate indicators are already moving
beyond the patterns of natural variability within which contemporary society and
economy have developed and thrived.
These indicators include global mean surface temperature, sea-level rise, global ocean
temperature, Arctic sea ice extent, ocean acidification, and extreme climatic events.
With unabated emissions, many trends in climate will likely accelerate,
leading to an increasing risk of abrupt or irreversible climatic shifts.
climatecongress.ku.dk/pdf/synthesisreport
Elements of Intelligent Grid
Transmission
Power Stations
Customer
Distribution
Distributed Energy:
Transmission Data
Collection and Automation
Sensors, data collection
and Automation:
Predictive and
“Self Healing”
Using information, communications and
control technologies to integrate the electricity
network with “distributed energy” resources.
• Peak Demand
Management - DSR
• Energy Efficiency
• Distributed Generation
• Energy Storage
• Smart Meters,
• Time of Use pricing
• Real time displays
• Advanced Communications
• Electric Cars
Figure Source: Southern California Edison & CPUC
Intelligent Grid Research Program


3-Year Collaborative Research (July 2008- June 2011)
Engagement with industry, regulators, policy makers, etc.
Aim: to facilitate major greenhouse gas emission reductions by integrating
distributed energy technology with a more intelligent electricity network.
CSIRO
1: Control
Methodology
of DG
2: Market
& Economic
Modelling
Uni of Qld
Uni of Qld
Institutional
Barriers
4: Instit Barriers,
Stakeholder
Engagement &
Economic
Modelling
5: I Grid
Social
Impacts
6: I Grid in
New
Housing
Development
7: Operational
Control &
Energy
Management
QUT
UTS
Curtin Uni
UniSA
QUT
Economic
regulatory
barriers &
solutions
Engagement:
Australian
Distributed
Energy
Roadmap
DANCE
Model:
Avoidable
Network
Costs
D-CODE
Model:
Costs of
Distributed
Energy
3: Optimal
Siting &
Dispatch
of DG
Networks and Climate Change
More Network
Capacity
Electricity Supply
Interruptions
More (fossil fuel)
power generation
More Storms,
Heatwaves, etc
More
Greenhouse gas
emissions
More Climate
Change
Networks and Climate Change
“$50 billion of further investment in national and local energy
grids is necessary to meet Australia’s carbon reduction
goals. If this doesn’t occur, we all face an increased risk of
being left to sweat out decades of long hot summers.
We know it is going to get warmer and we have to prepare for that
– this last week has been a warning to us all – we need to act
today to climate change proof our networks and to be climate
change ready.”
-Andrew Blyth, CEO Energy Networks Association,
2 February 2009, Canberra
http://www.ena.asn.au/udocs/ena_020309_100854.pdf
Greenhouse Abatement Opportunities - USA
“United States could reduce emissions by 31% to 46% by 2030”
Greenhouse Abatement Opportunities - Australia
D-CODE: Details and Cost of Distributed Energy
NSW Case Study:
Meeting NSW Electricity Needs to 2020
with lower costs and lower emissions
Scenarios for meeting the NSW power needs to 2020
Scenario 1 – COAL (approximates Owen Inquiry outcome)


1000 MW coal power station 2017
two 500 MW open cycle gas turbines in 2018 & 2019
Scenario 2 – GAS (~NEMMCO projections)

combination of open cycle and combined cycle gas
Scenario 3 - Cogeneration and Demand Side Response
Scenario 4 - Energy efficiency and Demand Side Response
Scenario 5 - Combined distributed energy


energy efficiency, cogeneration, and demand side response, and
Allows 1000 MW coal fired capacity retirement in 2014/15.
NSW capacity projections to 2020 with DE
20,000
18,000
17,000
16,000
15,000
14,000
13,000
Exisiting or planned capacity
Capacity needed for reliability
Demand side response
Cogeneration
Energy efficiency
2019/20
2018/19
2017/18
2016/17
2015/16
2014/15
2013/14
2012/13
2011/12
2010/11
2009/10
12,000
2008/09
CAPACITY (MW)
19,000
$35
90
87.6
86.4
$33
85.4
$31
Billion $ 2009 – 2020
85
84.7
79.2
80
$29
75
$27
70
$25
65
$23
60
$21
55
$19
50
$17
45
$15
40
Coal
Gas
Cogen and DSR
Existing supply - variable cost
New supply - amortized capital cost
Million Tonnes CO2-e in 2020
Energy
efficiency and
DSR
Combined
distributed
energy
Network capital - amortized cost
New supply - variable cost
Mt CO2-e per year
Scenario cumulative costs & 2020 emissions
 Energy efficiency, cogeneration, and Demand Side
Response can meet capacity shortfall
 Not acting on DE will mean higher:
– energy consumption, greenhouse emissions, network
costs, generation costs, carbon abatement cost and
consumer power bills
So, are we investing in Distributed Energy?
Australian Energy Regulator’s
Network Pricing Decision (2009-14)
 $16.9 billion in Network Capital Expenditure (2009-14)
– 80% increase on the previous five years
– $2,400 per person in NSW
– $9.3 million per day
 For Energy Australia customers
– Average network prices increase by 99% (nominal)
– up to 172% for domestic customers
– Average retail price to rise by ~40% (excl. CPRS cost)
 Little direct support for Distributed Energy
Distribution Network Capital Expenditure
3,500
3,000
NSW
Qld
2,000
1,500
Vic
1,000
500
SA
Financial Year
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
0
1999
$m p.a.
2,500
Distribution Network Capital Expenditure
Can we afford a much bigger grid and much smarter grid
at the same time?
3,500
2,500
NSW
2,000
Qld
1,500
Vic
1,000
SA
Financial Year
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
0
2000
500
1999
$m p.a.
3,000
Network Prices to Rise (by up to 172%)
1
(Real Retail Prices up: 51% for small consumers; 34% for large consumers)
Energy Australia Indicative Network Charges
[1]
Energy Australia, Revised Regulatory Proposal and Interim Submission, January 2009, p. 190
Energy Consumption Forecast to fall
(AER Determination, Fig. 6.2, p. 114)
Peak Demand Forecast to rise (2.7% per annum)
Forecast Peak Demand Growth
7000
6800
Original forecast
(June 2008)
MW
6600
Revised forecast
(January 2009)
6400
6200
6000
5800
5600
2009–10
2010–11
2011–12
2012–13
2013–14
Year
AER Determination, Table 6.4
How to stimulate Distributed Energy investment?
Australian Distributed Energy Roadmap
Roadmap
Elements
Defining Distributed Energy
Energy Efficiency, Load Mgt, Distributed Generation
External Data
External Process
Research and
Development
Centralised Generation
Costs, Scale, Limitations
(NEM)
DE Technology
Assessment:
Costs, Scale, Limitations
Potential
(current and
future)
Status
(current and
progress)
Institutional Barriers
What obstructs
cost-effective DE?
Policy Instruments
Demand Forecasting
Energy and Peak Load
(NEMMCO)
Assumptions &
Scenario Analysis
Can institutional barriers be
effectively overcome?
Avoidable Network Costs
(time and place)
Policy Drivers
Proposed Network Investment
(time and place)
(NSPs)
Why do stakeholders care
about DE?
Avoidable network costs
Network Capacity Required
Sydney by 2012
Avail. Capacity
>15MVA
< -10MVA
Proposed Network Investment
Sydney to 2012
Indicative Network Investment
Deferral Value ($/MVA/yr) -Sydney
to 2012
Australian Distributed Energy Roadmap
Roadmap
Elements
Defining Distributed Energy
Energy Efficiency, Load Mgt, Distributed Generation
External Data
External Process
Research and
Development
Centralised Generation
Costs, Scale, Limitations
(NEM)
DE Technology
Assessment:
Costs, Scale, Limitations
Potential
(current and
future)
Status
(current and
progress)
Institutional Barriers
What obstructs
cost-effective DE?
Policy Instruments
Demand Forecasting
Energy and Peak Load
(NEMMCO)
Avoidable Network Costs
(time and place)
Assumptions &
Scenario Analysis
Can institutional barriers be
effectively overcome?
Optimisation & Outputs:
Costs, Prices, Emissions
Policy Drivers
Proposed Network Investment
(time and place)
(NSPs)
Recommendations
Social Decision Making:
Political process;
Policy and Market Design
Why do stakeholders care
about DE?
Consumer Acceptance
Will consumers accept DE?
Plug in Hybrid Electric Vehicles
Australia’s first PHEV (Plug in Hybrid Electric Vehicle)
1. Plug In
What’s a Hybrid Electric Vehicle (HEV)?
> Has both petrol engine and electric motor and battery
> Still runs on petrol only, but up to 50% more efficient
– Engine does not idle, recovers braking energy, smaller capacity
engine, runs engine at more optimal speed
– Reduces reliance on oil (and imports)
What’s a Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicle (PHEV)?
> Bigger Battery
> Socket & Charger to charge off
electricity grid
> Reduce greenhouse emissions
– (if renewable powered)
> Reduces urban pollution
> Much lower running costs
– (but high battery costs)
Why PHEVs?
More
oil use
Conventional
vehicle
 petrol fuel
~20% efficient
Hybrid Electric Vehicle
(HEV)
Peak Oil
~40% efficient
Long range, quick refuel
 petrol fuel
Plug-in Hybrid Electric
Vehicle (PHEV)
cElectric & petrol fuel
 ~60% efficient
Long range, quick refuel
Biofuel vehicle
renewable fuel
 Competing land use,
 biodiversity, food security
Electric vehicle (EV)
 electric fuel, ~80% efficient
 Limited range,
Slow recharge
Global Warming
More
greenhouse
emissions
PHEV Greenhouse Gas Emissions
Comparison of PHEV emissions charged from various power stations types
(Year 2010, 19,300 km per year, 30km electric range)
Conventional car
Coal fired
electricity
Renewable
electricity
Source: EPRI http://www.epri-reports.org/PHEV-ExecSum-vol1.pdf
Fuel Cost Comparison
(Conventional petrol car vs PHEV per day for typical 30km commute)
$5.00
$/day
$4.00
$3.00
Electricity
$2.00
$1.00
Petrol
($1.40/l)
$Conventional
(Camry)
Off Peak
Standard Green Power Off Peak
(Continuous)
Green Power
Fuel Cost Comparison
(Conventional petrol car vs PHEV per day for typical 30km commute)
Actual one-off battery cost
Petrol
($1.40/l)
Fuel Cost Comparison
(Conventional petrol car vs PHEV per day for typical 30km commute)
Estimated battery cost at
production line volumes
Petrol
($1.40/l)
Impact of PHEVs on
Average Residential Power Demand
(Summer Peak- NSW)
~8 kWh per day
= ~60 km in PHEV
O/Peak
Water
heating
Air Cond.
Impact of PHEVs on
Average Residential Power Demand
(Summer Peak- NSW)
~8 kWh per day
= >60 km in PHEV
Water
heating
PHEV charge uncontrolled
Air Cond.
Impact of PHEVs on
Average Residential Power Demand
(Summer Peak- NSW)
~8 kWh per day
= ~60 km in PHEV
Water PHEV charge
-controlled
heating
Air Cond.
Impact of PHEVs on
Average Residential Power Demand
(Summer Peak- NSW)
~8 kWh per day of
load removed
Air Cond.
Average Residential Power Demand
(Summer Peak- NSW)
Vehicle to Grid
load management
(peak load reduced)
Air Cond.
Australia’s first V2G (Vehicle to Grid) electric car
Solar?
What does a Solar Feed in tariff look at from
a Intelligent Grid perspective?
1. A Gross Tariff of at least 30cents/kWh fixed for the term
of the tariff.
2. The term of the tariff should be at least 10 years from
the date of installation.
3. If necessary, the term of the FiT should be reviewed,
rather than the rate.
4. Eligibility should be open to all electricity consumers
5. Consumers receiving the FiT should be required to
purchase power through a time of use tariff.
6. This time of use tariff should be based on “net metering”
What’s next
 Australian Distributed Energy Roadmap
 Forum 1: Brisbane April 09: Introduction
 Forum 2: Melbourne 14 July: Costs of Distributed Energy
 Forum 3: Sydney August 09: Avoidable Network Costs
 NSW Case Study Report release soon
Conclusions
•
•
•
Smart Grids, Electric Cars and Solar PV are strongly
complementary
We are unlikely to be able to afford a much bigger grid
and a much smarter grid at the same time
We need to make investment in distributed energy as
easy as investment in networks.
www.igrid.net.au
www.igrid.net.au