Transcript COC-McBean Climate Change - Canadians for Action on Climate

Climate Change Literacy
Guiding Principles for Informed
Climate Decision Making.
G. McBean, CM, Ph.D., FRSC
Institute for Catastrophic Loss Reduction
Departments of Geography and Political
Science
The University of Western Ontario
London, Ontario
1
The Climate System
The Sun is the primary source of energy
• Interacting
components:
atmosphere,
ocean, land
surface, sea ice,
glaciers…
• Processes are
complicated and
all components
are
interconnected
Life on Earth depends on, is shaped by, and now affects climate.
Climate Change Literacy
• The Essential Principles of
Climate Science
• The Greenhouse Effect
3
Land life
Ozone layer
Humans
Oxygen
Intervention
Oceans – marine life
Greenhouse effect
Some water condenses to liquid – clouds-rain
Gases came out – water vapour
As the planet cooled from its very hot beginning
GREENHOUSE EFFECT –
gases in atmosphere trap energy and warm the surface and lower atmosphere
5700oC
Short Waves
Carbon Dioxide
~10%
~25%
Other
~65%
Water Vapour
15oC
Long Waves
Other planets also have Greenhouse Effects,
but these are unsuitable for life
Sun
Venus
Atmosphere:
GH Gases:
Sfc. Temp.:
GH Effect:
mass 90x earth’s
>90% CO2
477C
523C
FAR TOO HOT!
GH Gases:
Earth
Sfc. Temp.:
GH Effect:
~0.04% CO2
~ 1% H2O
15C
33C
NOT BAD!
Mars
Atmosphere:
GH Gases:
Sfc. Temp.:
GH Effect:
mass <1% earth’s
>80% CO2
-47C
10C
FAR TOO COLD!
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Time Scales for Climate
System
Water cycle
10 days regional issue)
Ocean response
years to centuries
Emissions to globe
years
Methane gas
10 years
global issues
Carbon dioxide
100 years
End-use technologiesyears
Supply technologies decades responding
Social standards
decades
Climate change is a long-term issue
Issues of intergenerational and international equity
8
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change (IPCC) – assess climate
change – 1990,95, 2001,07
• Most scientific information in this
presentation is from IPCC (or Canadian
national assessments)
• Nobel Peace Prize for 2007: awarded to:
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)
and Albert Arnold (Al) Gore Jr.
• The Norwegian Nobel Committee noted that
it
• “is seeking to contribute to a sharper focus
on the processes and decisions that appear
to be necessary to protect the world’s future
climate, and thereby to reduce the threat to9
• 240 Canadian
climate scientists
shared in this Prize
as co-authors of
the one or more of
the IPCC major
reports.
• Lester Pearson
won the Peace
Prize in 1957.
Changing Greenhouse Gas
Concentrations
from ice cores
and
modern
data
Now
1957
Carbon dioxide
Methane
Last
10,000 y
Nitrous oxide
11
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Time Scales for Climate
System
Water cycle
10 days regional issue)
Ocean response
years to centuries
Emissions to globe
years
Methane gas
10 years
global issues
Carbon dioxide
100 years
End-use technologiesyears
Supply technologies decades responding
Social standards
decades
Climate change is a long-term issue
Issues of intergenerational and international equity
13
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change (IPCC) – assess climate
change – 1990,95, 2001,07
• Most scientific information in this
presentation is from IPCC (or Canadian
national assessments)
• Nobel Peace Prize for 2007: awarded to:
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)
and Albert Arnold (Al) Gore Jr.
• The Norwegian Nobel Committee noted that
it
• “is seeking to contribute to a sharper focus
on the processes and decisions that appear
to be necessary to protect the world’s future
14
climate, and thereby to reduce the threat to
• 240 Canadian
climate scientists
shared in this Prize
as co-authors of
the one or more of
the IPCC major
reports.
• Lester Pearson
won the Peace
Prize in 1957.
Changing Greenhouse Gas
Concentrations
from ice cores
and
modern
data
Now
1957
Carbon dioxide
Methane
Last
10,000 y
Nitrous oxide
16
Climate Change Literacy
• Is the Climate Changing?
17
NASA-GISS analysis.
2005 was warmest
2007 and 1998 were second warmest
2008 was 9th warmest in the
instrumental period (since 1850)
0.18
0.13
Warming of the climate system is unequivocal,
as is now evident from observations of increases in global average air and ocean
temperatures, widespread melting of snow and ice, and rising global average sea
level.
Eleven of the last twelve years (1995 -2006) rank among the 12 warmest years
in
18
the instrumental record of global surface temperature (since 1850).
Millions of square km
Sea-ice is Melting
Year
2008
2007
Climate Change Literacy
• Why is it changing?
20
Natural processes
•Variations in Earth’s orbit?
•Variations in Sun?
•Volcanoes?
Why is the
climate changing?
Observations
Climate Models
Natural processes
+
Human Processes
•Greenhouse gas emissions
•Aerosols
•Land-cover change
Observations
Climate Models
Most of the observed increase in global average temperatures
since the mid-20th century is very likely due to the observed
increase in
anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations.
Observations
Climate Models
Natural processes
Natural processes
+
Human Processes
Climate Change Literacy
• How will it change in the
future?
24
Projecting the Future
Emissions GtCO2 eq/yr
warming °C per decade
Science
Uncertainty
3.6C
2.8C
1.8C
0.2
0.18
0.13
And the warming
will continue for
centuries to follow
Key Messages
• The climate has warmed, will
continue to warm, and humans are
the cause
• Mitigation (emission reductions) will
not substantially affect the climate
over the next few decades – so we
have to adapt.
• But, choices made now will have a
big impact on the second-half of the
st
Climate Change Literacy
• Adapt to what?
27
No one lives at the global average
Medium (A1B) scenario (2090-2099): Global mean warming 2.8oC
Annual
DJF
Much warmer winters;
Increased precipitation
Changing Precipitation
JJA
Hotter summers;
Rain - varies
Water-sewage, agriculture
28
Forestry, floods, droughts
Number
of hot
days*
per
year
In Europe
- Record
setting
August
2003
(more than 35,000 deaths) will be
hot day is defined as a
Fredericton every second summer – by*Amid-century
Quebec
day with a maximum
temperature above 30C
Actions:
Toronto •Better design our structures and cities
•more
green
space-shade-use
of
passive
cooling
London
37
68
8
22
•Heat alerts and responses – medical advice
Winnipeg
•Cleaner air
2080-2100
Calgary
Projected
2041-2069
2020-2040
1961-1990
Victoria
More
frequent hot days – Observed
virtually certain
– very
0Warm spells
20
40 likely
60
80
Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis
Centre canadien de la modélisation et de l’analyse climatique
No Breathing Room
National Illness Costs of Air Pollution
Canadian Medical Association (CMA) August 2008
1. In 2008, 21,000 Canadians will die from the effects
of air pollution.
2. By 2031, almost 90,000 people will have died from
the acute effects of air pollution. The number of
deaths due to long-term exposure to air pollution
will be 710,000. …
10. 11. In 2008, economic costs of air pollution will
top $8 billion. By 2031, these costs will have
accumulated to over $250 billion.
The processes that result in air pollution are much
the same as those that produce greenhouse
gases.
And more hot days will result in more smog days –
for the same emissions
From Impacts to Adaptation:
Canada in a
Changing Climate 2007
• Projections - intense
rainfall events, heat waves
and smog episodes are
likely to become more
frequent.
• Heat-related mortality could
more than double in
southern and central
Ontario by the 2050s, while
air pollution mortality could
increase about 15 to 25%
during the same interval.
• The health of Ontario
residents has been at risk
… extreme weather, heat
waves, smog episodes and
ecological changes that
support the spread of
vector-borne diseases.
• Walkerton, Ontario
$500M for the
August 19, 2005 wind, rain
event
32
Historical occurrences
of urban flooding
1980, 1996, 2002, 2004
1 in 100 year event in
2002
Wind Damage to Infrastructure
Severe
Stormprecipitation
Loss of
More
heavy
events
–
very
likely
Service
Sept. 29, 2005
Nov. 6, 2005
Nov. 16, 2005
Feb. 4, 2006
July 17, 2006
Aug. 2, 2006
Sept. 24+27, 2006
93,000
120,000
50,000
100,000
170,000
150,000
93,000
The Insurance Research
Lab for Better Homes
forest under
Natural ecosystems
dependBoreal
on temperature
and stress
Increased
risk of drought
Climate moves north faster
Precipitation.
Is Likely
than the trees
550 ppm – mid-late
this century
Today
Warmer temperatures
Great Lakes Water Levels
Warmer
lakesCurrent
and &changing
climate
184
Projected Ranges
resulting in more invasive species
175
in lakes and ecosystems
183.5
X
X
177
183
174
1 metre drop
in lake level
possible
X
75.5
X
X
173
176
X
74.5
182.5
Lake
Superior
175
172
X
174
X
73.5
X
72.5
Lakes
MichiganHuron
X
Lake Erie
Lake Ontario
How will this change our access to water,
Average, 1918-1998
sewage disposal, shipping and recreation?
Projected for 2XCO2, assuming no change in natural variability
(CCC GCMII from Morstch & Quinn, 1996)
Climate Change is a Global Issue:
Coastal vulnerabilities in light of global
change
– Sea level
rise
– Increasing
settlement
in coastal
zones
Time series of global mean sea level, as a deviation
from 1980-99 mean.
Vulnerability of Asian coastal cities
– Increasing urban
settlement in lowlying coastal areas
– IPCC has identified
Asian mega deltas
as “hot spots of
vulnerability”
– By 2070, nine of the
top 10 cities in terms
of population
exposure will be
found in Asia
(Kolkata, Mumbai,
Dhaka, Guangzhou,
Ho Chi Minh City,
Shanghai, Bangkok,
Rangoon, and Hai
Phong)
Climate Change Literacy
• We have a responsibility to
our children and
grandchildren and people
around the world.
• We MUST reduce our impact.
39
Number
of hot
days*
per
year
In Europe
- Record
setting
August
2003
(more than 35,000 deaths) will be
hot day is defined as a
Fredericton every second summer – by*Amid-century
Quebec
day with a maximum
temperature above 30C
Actions:
Toronto •Better design our structures and cities
•more
green
space-shade-use
of
passive
cooling
London
37
68
8
22
•Heat alerts and responses – medical advice
Winnipeg
•Cleaner air
2080-2100
Calgary
Projected
2041-2069
2020-2040
1961-1990
Victoria
More
frequent hot days – Observed
virtually certain
– very
0Warm spells
20
40 likely
60
80
Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis
Centre canadien de la modélisation et de l’analyse climatique
No Breathing Room
National Illness Costs of Air Pollution
Canadian Medical Association (CMA) August 2008
1. In 2008, 21,000 Canadians will die from the effects
of air pollution.
2. By 2031, almost 90,000 people will have died from
the acute effects of air pollution. The number of
deaths due to long-term exposure to air pollution
will be 710,000. …
10. 11. In 2008, economic costs of air pollution will
top $8 billion. By 2031, these costs will have
accumulated to over $250 billion.
The processes that result in air pollution are much
the same as those that produce greenhouse
gases.
And more hot days will result in more smog days –
for the same emissions
From Impacts to Adaptation:
Canada in a
Changing Climate 2007
• Projections - intense
rainfall events, heat waves
and smog episodes are
likely to become more
frequent.
• Heat-related mortality could
more than double in
southern and central
Ontario by the 2050s, while
air pollution mortality could
increase about 15 to 25%
during the same interval.
• The health of Ontario
residents has been at risk
… extreme weather, heat
waves, smog episodes and
ecological changes that
support the spread of
vector-borne diseases.
• Walkerton, Ontario
$500M for the
August 19, 2005 wind, rain
event
43
Historical occurrences
of urban flooding
1980, 1996, 2002, 2004
1 in 100 year event in
2002
Wind Damage to Infrastructure
Severe
Stormprecipitation
Loss of
More
heavy
events
–
very
likely
Service
Sept. 29, 2005
Nov. 6, 2005
Nov. 16, 2005
Feb. 4, 2006
July 17, 2006
Aug. 2, 2006
Sept. 24+27, 2006
93,000
120,000
50,000
100,000
170,000
150,000
93,000
The Insurance Research
Lab for Better Homes
forest under
Natural ecosystems
dependBoreal
on temperature
and stress
Increased
risk of drought
Climate moves north faster
Precipitation.
Is Likely
than the trees
550 ppm – mid-late
this century
Today
Warmer temperatures
Great Lakes Water Levels
Warmer
lakesCurrent
and &changing
climate
184
Projected Ranges
resulting in more invasive species
175
in lakes and ecosystems
183.5
X
X
177
183
174
1 metre drop
in lake level
possible
X
75.5
X
X
173
176
X
74.5
182.5
Lake
Superior
175
172
X
174
X
73.5
X
72.5
Lakes
MichiganHuron
X
Lake Erie
Lake Ontario
How will this change our access to water,
Average, 1918-1998
sewage disposal, shipping and recreation?
Projected for 2XCO2, assuming no change in natural variability
(CCC GCMII from Morstch & Quinn, 1996)
Climate Change is a Global Issue:
Coastal vulnerabilities in light of global
change
– Sea level
rise
– Increasing
settlement
in coastal
zones
Time series of global mean sea level, as a deviation
from 1980-99 mean.
Vulnerability of Asian coastal cities
– Increasing urban
settlement in lowlying coastal areas
– IPCC has identified
Asian mega deltas
as “hot spots of
vulnerability”
– By 2070, nine of the
top 10 cities in terms
of population
exposure will be
found in Asia
(Kolkata, Mumbai,
Dhaka, Guangzhou,
Ho Chi Minh City,
Shanghai, Bangkok,
Rangoon, and Hai
Phong)
Climate Change Literacy
• We have a responsibility to
our children and
grandchildren and people
around the world.
• We MUST reduce our impact.
50
Canada’s Emissions to 2006
Energy 81%
29.1% above Kyoto
Target
Kyoto Target
By Province/Territory
Alberta
1990
Ontario
2006
GHG Emissions- tonne/person
2004
US
= 20
Canada = 20
Germany,Japan,UK = 9.8
China = 2.6
India = 1
Change in GHG Emissions
Relative to 1990
Australia +25%
Canada +25%
United States +16%
Japan +6%
EU -1.5%
Sweden -7.3%
UK -15%
5
Recent
emissions
Fossil
Fuel Emissions:
Actual
vs.
IPCC
Scenarios
Trajectory
of
Global
Fossil
Fuel
Emissions
0
Global Carbon
– 10/07 1950
1850 Project
1900
2000
2050
2100
CO2 Emissions (GtC y-1)
10
9
8
7
Actual emissions: CDIAC
Actual emissions: EIA
450ppm stabilisation
650ppm stabilisation
A1FI (Avgs.)
A1B
A1T
A2
B1
B2
2007
2008
2006
2005
6
1990 - 1999: 1.3% y-1
5
1990
1995
2000 - 2007: 3.5% y-1
2000
Raupach et al 2007, PNAS; Global Carbon Project 2009, update
2005
2010
Natural
CO
Sinks
absorb
55%
of
all
Emissions
2
And Natural Ecosystems have been protecting
the climate from some of our insult
• 55% discount on humaninduced climate change.
• A subsidy to the global
economy worth half a
trillion US$ annually if an
equivalent sink had to be
created (eg, base on EU-Emission
Trading Scheme).
As the climate warms, these systems will absorb less.
Canadell and Raupach 2008, Science
Green Energy &
Environmentally Friendly
Chemical Technologies
at Western Engineering
Research Activities
1. Environmentally
friendly fuels
2. Green technologies for
air/water treatment and
hydrogen production
3. Fuel and biofuel cell
technologies
4. Novel materials for
green processes and
products
We can take actions here!!
• Reduce energy use
• Reduce the carbon intensity of our
energy
– Alternate fuel from waste
– Solar and wind power
• Reduce our pollutant emissions – airwater-…
• Mayor’s Energy Sustainability
Council
• Green is the Colour of Money
• And adapt to a changing climate.
Key Messages
• The climate has warmed, will
continue to warm, and humans are
the cause
• Mitigation (emission reductions) will
not substantially affect the climate
over the next few decades – so we
have to adapt.
• But, choices made now will have a
big impact on the second-half of the
st
The End
Thank you for your attention