Transcript Progress on GCAP: Global Climate and Pollution

Progress on GCAP:
Global Climate and Pollution
Harvard University
September 26, 2005
Basic blueprint for project
Compare 2000 and 2050 climates
met. input
GISS GCM
1950-2050
transient
climate
simulation
Archive
results
boundary
conditions
emissions
GEOS-CHEM CTM
global O3-PM
simulation
MM5 mesoscale
dynamics simulation
boundary
conditions
emissions
CMAQ
regional O3-PM
simulation
met. input
Original plan called for implementation of chemistry directly within the GCM. This
plan is more flexible and takes advantage of GEOS-CHEM’s many capabilities.
Flow plan so far.
2003
2004
2005
Argonne
gas and aerosol emissions inventory
GISS
GCM
Model 2
Model 3
present-day
equilibrium
2006
Model 3 transient
version & spinup
pilot project
Harvard
GCAP model= GEOS-CHEM with GISS met
Caltech
SOA scheme
UTenn
validation
aerosol validation
GCM/ MM5 & GEOS-CHEM/ CMAQ interfaces
Publications, including those in progress and those anticipated.
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Streets, D.G., T.C. Bond, T. Lee, and C. Jang, On the future of
carbonaceous aerosol emissions, JGR, 2004.
Mickley, L.J., D.J. Jacob, B.D. Field, and D. Rind, Effects of future climate
change on regional air pollution episodes in the United States, GRL, 2004.
Liao et al., Validation of aerosols?, in progress, 2005.
Wu et al., Sensitivity of global tropospheric ozone and OH to model
meteorological fields and other variables, in progress, 2005
Rind et al., Comparison of tracer transport in GISS models?, in progress,
2005.
Wu et al., Effects of climate change and changing emissions on U.S. air
quality, anticipated, 2006.
Wu et al., Effects of climate change and changing emissions on
intercontinental transport, anticipated, 2006.
Mickley et al., Revisiting the issue of climate change impacts on U.S.
pollution meteorology, anticipated, 2006.
Others? Amendments?
Published results so far: Streets et al., 2004
Argonne completed the first model-based forecasts of future
emissions of primary carbonaceous aerosols.
anthropogenic
biomass burning
BC
BC
OC
OC
Mickley et al., 2004: Pilot Project: Implement “tracers of anthropogenic
pollution” into GISS General Circulation Model
Timeline
1950
spin-up (ocean adjusts)
2000
increasing A1 greenhouse gas
2050
Goddard Institute for Space Studies GCM: 9 layers, 4ox5o horizontal grid, CO2
+ other greenhouse gases increased yearly from 2000 to 2050.
July global mean temperature
Carbon Monoxide: COt
source: present-day anthro emissions
sink: CO + present-day OH fields
2045-2052
+2o C Temp change
spin up
Sensitive to climate change
Circulation also sensitive to climate change
{
Black Carbon: BCt
source: present-day anthro emissions
sink: rainout
19952002
Severity of summertime regional pollution episodes in the Midwest and
Northeast increases significantly by 2050s relative to present-day.
July – August, surface concentrations
2045-2052
1995-2002
Changes at the extremes are tied to decline in the number of cyclones crossing
Canada, with fewer cold fronts ventilating Midwest and Northeast U.S. in 2050s.
This fall: A1 1995-2055 simulation
GISS GCM III
Qflux ocean: sea surface temperatures allowed to respond to changing
climate, ocean heat transport fluxes specified.
Spin-up 1950-1995 already completed by GISS.
Harvard additions to GISS GCM:
Houston smog
• Code to archive meteorology for GCAP interface
• Same tracers, CO and BC, as in Mickley et al., 2004
• Wet deposition code from Model II’
• Diagnostics of daily meteorology over U.S. region
• Diagnostics of lightning NOx emissions
• Diagnostics for fire frequency study (Jennifer Logan’s EPA study of
changing wildfire frequency over the next 50 years)
Proposed flow plan for coming year
2006
2007
Argonne
emissions guidance
analysis of future
met trends
Harvard
analysis of climate impacts on pollution, transport
Caltech
UTenn
BC/IC
GISS
analysis of climate impacts on aerosols
MM5 and CMAQ simulations
papers
papers
papers
analysis, papers
Proposed science team goals for 2006
Houston on a clear day.
Argonne: provide emissions guidance
GISS:
• Analyze trends in pollution meteorology
• Work with Harvard/ Caltech on interpreting chemistry-climate effects
Harvard:
• Examine effects of climate change and future emissions on U.S. air
quality (with EOF analysis & tracer study a la Mickley 2004)
• Analyze trends in intercontinental transport 2000-2050
Caltech:
• Analyze effects of climate change &changing emissions on aerosol
U Tenn:
• Complete interface between GISS/ MM5 and GEOS-CHEM/ CMAQ.
• Perform MM5 and CMAQ simulations for present-day and future.