Transcript The Evidence of Climate Change

Concepts, Procedures, and Data for
Understanding Food Security and Adaptive
Response to Climate Change in Ghana
Samuel Nii Ardey Codjoe1 , Petra Tschakert 2, Regina Sagoe1 and
Gifty Ofori-Darko 1
1 Regional
Institute for Population Studies, University of Ghana, Ghana
2Department
of Geography, Pennsylvania State University, USA
United Nations Institute for Training and Research (UNITAR) grant #CCP 07 08.
The United States Agency for International Development (USAID) grant # EEM-A-00-0600014)
Introduction
• Most nations of the world were self-sufficient in food production in the 1960s Green Revolution (Swaminathan, 1982)
• 1970s and 1980s per capita food production declined
• Over concentration of modes of production
• To the detriment of distribution, affordability, accessibility and utilisation
• Solving food insecurity requires these factors (Vogel and Smith, 2002; Clover,
2003; Leary et al. 2007).
Introduction
• Projections on demand and supply of food into the current millennium were very
positive (Devereux and Edwards, 2004).
• However, projections did not capture regional food inequalities and global
environmental change (Stephen and Downing, 2001)
• Yet variability in climatic conditions could be a stumbling block to food
production in SSA
• Agriculture in SSA mainly relies on rainfall and is labour-intensive (Rosenzweig
and Parry1994; Pearce et al. 1996; IPCC 2001a; Jones and Thornton, 2003).
Introduction
• About 27% of population of Africa and 16% of W/Africa were undernourished
(FAO, 2004)
• In 2006, 25 African countries needed food aid due to drought
• Prediction of African food security continue to remain bleak
• Crop production – 40% increase, Meat – 58% by 2020 to meet demand (PinstrupAndersen et al., 1999)
Introduction
• Studies predict that SS Africa will be particularly hard hit by global climatic
changes due to three main reasons
• First, because it already experiences high temperatures and low (and highly
variable) precipitation particularly in the arid areas
• Second, because the economies are highly dependent on agriculture and
• Third, because there is low adoption of modern technology (Pearce et al. 1996;
IPCC 2001a; Kurukulasuriya and Rosenthal, 2003; Rosenzweig and Parry, 1994;
Kurukulasuriya et al., 2006).
Major Problems of Food Production
• External – Agricultural subsidies from the West (Oxfam, 2002; Palmer and Kline,
2003; Kousari, 2004)
• Internal – Inadequate support, Use of low technology, Insufficient research
(Dadson, 1998)
• Physical – Drought, Bushfires, Degradation of natural resources (Oldeman,
1998), Soil fertility depletion (Sanchez et al. 1997)
• Violence and famine (de Waal, 1990; Macrae and Zwi, 1994)
Objectives of the Presentation
• Key Concepts in Climate Change
• Procedure for generating data - Based on a study on Climate Change and Food
Security in the Afram Plains of Ghana
• Presentation of Data
• Findings
Concepts
• Food security is defined as physical and economic access to sufficient, safe and
nutritious foods, which meet the individual’s dietary needs and food preferences
for an active and healthy life (FAO, 1996).
• Part of a broader concept of food systems, which encompass a range of social,
institutional, and ecological components (Ericksen, 2008),
• Food systems include certain activities, the outcome of which contributes to
food security.
Concepts
Food Systems
• Food availability - production, distribution and exchange
• Food access - affordability, allocation and preference, and
• Food utilization - nutritional value, social value and food safety (Ingram et al.
2005).
Concepts
Vulnerability
• Roots of vulnerability science can be traced to famine (Watts and Bohle, 1993)
and natural hazards (Mustafa, 1998) research
• Vulnerability of any system is a function of the exposure and sensitivity of that
system to hazardous conditions and the ability or capacity or resilience of the
system to cope, adapt or recover from the effects of those conditions (Smit and
Wandel, 2006)
• Vulnerability, its elements of exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity, and
their determinants are dynamic (they vary over time), and they vary by type,
stimulus and are place- and system-specific
Concepts
Adaptation and Adaptive Capacity
• Adaptation is a process, action or outcome in a system for it to better cope with,
manage or adjust to some changing conditions , stress, hazard, risk or opportunity
(Smit and Wandel, 2006)
• Adjustments in ecological-socio-economic systems in response to actual or
expected climatic stimuli, their effects or impacts (Smit et al., 2000, p.225)
• Based on timing, adaptations can be anticipatory or reactive, and depending on their
degree of spontaneity they can be autonomous or planned (Frankhauser et al., 1999)
• The forces that influence the ability of the system to adapt are the drivers of
adaptive capacity (access to finance, kingship networks, technological and
information resources etc.)
• Adaptive capacity is context-specific and varies from country to country, community
to community, among social groups and individuals over time
Concepts
Adaptation and Adaptive Capacity
• Adaptive capacity can be viewed through thresholds and “coping ranges” defined
by the conditions that a system can deal with, accommodate, adapt to, and recover
from (Smit and Pilifosova, 2003)
• A system's adaptive capacity and coping range are not static.
• Coping ranges are flexible and respond to changes in economic, social, political and
institutional conditions over time (Folke et al., 2002)
Key Questions
• How is the evidence of Climate Change/Climate Variability established?
• What livelihood stressors do communities experience, and how does climate
change rank among them?
• How do communities perceive Climate Change?
• How do communities monitor Climate Change locally for farming?
• How are food systems impacted by Climate Change?
• Are the impacts the same for all communities?
• Who adapts better and who worse, and what are the underlying reasons?
• What strategies do households use to adapt to flooding and food shortages?
Procedures
• Simulations using meteorological data (Rainfall and Temperature)
• Participatory risk mapping, ranking and scoring (Quinn et al., 2003; Tschakert,
2007)
• Mental models (Bostrom et al., 1992; Zaksek and Arvai, 2004)
• Historical matrices (Freudenberger-Schoonmaker, 1995)
• Household surveys (Cramb et al., 2004)
• Vulnerability mapping
Study Area
Source: Tschakert et al., (in press) Climatic
Change
Study Area
LAND COVER OF THE AFRAM PLAINS DISTRICT, GHANA (JANUARY-FEBRUARY,2000)
100 00 00
105 00 00
110 00 00
115 00 00
120 00 00
125 00 00
130 00 00
135 00 00
Loc atio n map
KET E KR A C H I
D IS T R I C T
DIG Y A GA M E RE SE RV E
950 00 0
950 00 0
L
SE K YE RE E AS T
DIS TRIC T
Nton oa bom a
E
G
E
N
D
Deg arde d f ores t wit h relat iv e ly
clos e d c an opy
JA S IK AN
DIS TRIC T
Deg arde d f ores t wit h relat iv e ly
ope n c an op y
New Ky ia s e
Clo s ed sa v ann a w ood la nd
900 00 0
900 00 0
Op en s av an na woo dland
(m ore s hrub s /he rbs th an gras s es )
Av at im e
Op en s av an na woo dland
(m ore gra ss e s tha n s h ru bs /h erbs
Kwa ek es e
Am an kw ak rom
Ag ode k e
Farmlan d / se ttlem en t o r bare land
#
As ay an s o
W at er b ody (La k e V olta )
Ag otime
850 00 0
850 00 0
Roa d
Ka ye ra
#
Major s e ttlem en t
Mam ek rob o
#
Mim K y em fere
Teas e
#
N
KP A NDO
DIS TRIC T
800 00 0
An lo Faa so
Forif ori
Ba ttor ku be kro m
Brub en
800 00 0
500
Ba ttoe
0
500
1: 420 00 0
Fos o
Ba ttor Man fik ope
Ek y ia ma nfro m
C om po s ed f o r
#
750 00 0
Kwa me Dwa me na
750 00 0
MASDAR
In te rna t ion al C os u lt ant s
N o. 1 R ea din g R oa d
Ev er s ley , H a m ps h ire , R G 27 O R P, U K
KW AH U S O UTH
DIS TRIC T
700 00 0
700 00 0
FAN TEA K W A
DIS TRIC T
100 00 00
105 00 00
110 00 00
115 00 00
120 00 00
125 00 00
130 00 00
135 00 00
Pro duc e d by :
C ent re fo r R om o t e Se ns ing and
G eo gr aph ic In f orm a t ion S er vi c es (C E R SG IS )
U niv er s it y o f G ha na
Leg on, Ac c r a
Km
The Evidence of Climate Change - Science
Mean Annual Rainfall for Afram Plains – 1960-2005
• Mean annual rainfall amount has been quite stable – Only a slight increase of 25
mm (1.8%)
The Evidence of Climate Change - Science
Number of rain days for Afram Plains – 1960-2005
• General decline in number of rain days – 15 days (13.6%)
• Rainfall in recent times (2000s) are more intensive
•Shifts in precipitation peaks – 2 major peaks in June and Sept (1968-1977 and 19781997). However, there are 3 major peaks in April, July and September (1998-2007)
The Evidence of Climate Change - Science
Mean annual temperature – 1960-2004, Afram Plains
y = 0.0243x + 25.553
R² = 0.5393
27.50
Temperature in oC
27.00
26.50
26.00
25.50
Years
• General increase in temperature – 0.04o C (maximum) and 0.02o C
(minimum)
2004
2002
2000
1998
1996
1994
1992
1990
1988
1986
1984
1982
1980
1978
1976
1974
1972
1970
1968
1966
1964
1962
1960
25.00
The Evidence of Climate Change – Local Knowledge
Chief Ransford’s Record
• Highest rainfall used to be in June or July but now they occurred in September
• Chief Ransford’s record shows 21 significant rain events in 43 days between
August 21 and October 2, 2007 – Evidence of Floods
The Evidence of Climate Change – Local Knowledge
Historical matrix of extreme climatic events identified by
community members of Xerdzodzoekope
The Evidence of Climate Change – Local Knowledge
Extreme Climatic Events include
(a) January – July 1976: Very hot weather conditions,
(b) 1983 - 1984: Drought – A year long of bush fires,
(c) October – December 1989: Very hot weather conditions,
(d) 1991: Lots of rains throughout the year,
(e) 1995: About 40 days of intensive rains,
(f) 2004: Very cold winds experienced during March-April (Easter) and November
to January was very cold,
(g) 2005: Cold periods resulting in animal deaths,
(h) August 2006: One week of intensive rains, and
(i) 2007: Lots of rains in August and September.
Participatory risk mapping, ranking and scoring
Participatory risk mapping, ranking and scoring
Mental Models
Mental Models
Mental Models
• Although study communities do not have local names for climate change,
references to climate change in the local languages connote the weather, rainfall,
or temperature.
• Akan - “Afe afe mu nsakraye”
• Ewe - “Yeyi fi fe tortro” and “xexeame fe tortro”
• In other places it is said “the climate is hot or the climate is cold”.
Mental Models
The causes of climate change are:
•·
Clearing bushes around water bodies
•·
Violation of taboos
•·
Bushfire
•
Deforestation
•·
Continuous cropping on the same piece of land
•·
Charcoal burning / production
•·
Construction of the Akosombo dam resulting in the inundation of
many areas and therefore destroying most of the trees and land
Mental Models
Local Climate Change Indicators include:
.
Scanty rains in a previous year is an indication of heavy rains in the subsequent
year
• The sound of a toad in February is an indication of heavy rains coming soon and
which will occur throughout the season
• The sight of ants crossing paths is a sign of early rains
• The arrival of the sparrow bird in November and their departure in December, is
an indication of early rains. The birds can sometimes stay up to April, indicating
delay in the onset of rains
Mental Models
Local Climate Change Indicators include:
.The sound of the water bird is also an indication of rains
• Occurrence of the first rain in January on a Friday or Saturday, is an indication of
good rains all year round. It is usually a heavy rain from Friday to Saturday.
• The appearance of the rainbow in the East usually in March is an indication of
good rains in the year. In October, the rainbow appears in the West, indicating the
end of rain.
• The sight of a bird flying very high up is an indication of less rain in the year
Household Surveys
Household Surveys
Household characteristics in Afram Plains
Household Characteristic
Xerdzodzoekope
Mim Chemfre
Boakyekrom
Males
51.8
53.3
63.5
Household size (absolute)
8.2
6.3
7.1
Dependent population
45
45
33
Good health
81.6
85.3
87.0
Temporary sick
11.4
6.7
5.9
Poor health
6.1
8.0
7.1
Major occupation (Farmer)
46.4
34.0
84.0
No education
33.9
10.7
33.8
Primary education
33.9
28.0
36.3
Migration (Absent members)
18.4
21.3
48.8
Use of treated water
0
0
0
Rainwater harvest
0
25.0
8.3
Electricity
0
75.0
25.0
36.4
25.0
41.7
Toilet facility
Source: Field study, 2008
Food Availability in Afram Plains
Availability
Xerdzodoekope
Mim Chemfre
Boakyekrom
C
M
G
Y
P
C
M
G
Y
P
C
M
G
Y
P
Cropped (%)
92
58
33
25
8
75
75
42
-
75
67
25
50
83
25
No yield (%)
33
-
-
-
-
17
8
-
-
-
17
-
-
8
-
Sold (%)
25
14
60
-
67
44
63
75
-
-
50
100
33
33
-
Available
(%)
98
97
27
-
43
89
57
32
100
100
52
50
75
62
100
Production
(kgs)
194
158
146
-
110
1358
102
52
76
2
408
21
267
1108
8
C: Cassava; M: Maize; G: Groundnut; Y: Yam (measured in tubers); P: Pepper.
Source: Field study, 2008
Household Surveys
Food Availability:
- Period of food shortage is the planting season
- Reasons for food shortages includes:
- Financial
- Rainfall pattern
- Poor yield
- Poor health
Household Survey
Food Availability
Availability
Xerdzodzoekope
Mim Chemfre
Boakyekrom
Most important source of
food
Farm
Market
Market
Households with
sufficient quality of food
to meet households
requirement (%)
100.0
83.3
91.6
Households with
sufficient quantity of
food to meet households
requirement (%)
91.6
75.0
91.6
Source: Field study, 2008
Household Surveys
Food utilisation:
- Household heads were responsible for providing food
- Perception of nutritious food (Maize meal and vegetable soup)
- 75% of all households in the 3 communities had 3 meals in the day
- Processing and Storage:
- Cassava (Gari, Powder, dough; leave on farm)
- Maize (Dough; Dried, sprayed and stored in bags)
- Groundnut (Paste; Dried and stored in bags)
- Pepper (Boiled and dried and store in sacks)
- Fish (Smoked, Salted – can stay for about 10 years)
- Certain cultural practices/taboos - e.g. pregnant women don’t eat ripe plantains;
community members don’t eat certain fish species, snails and reptiles
Vulnerability Mapping
Vulnerability Mapping
Household assets in Afram Plains
Household asset Xerdzodzoekope Mim Chemfre
Boakyekrom
Car
18.2
0.0
0.0
Motorbike
0.0
8.3
8.3
Bicycle
72.7
66.7
75.0
Tractor
0.0
0.0
0.0
Sewing machine
45.5
41.7
33.3
Refrigerator
9.1
25.0
8.3
Radio
90.9
91.7
83.3
TV
27.3
25.0
16.7
Stove
9.1
0.0
8.3
Mobile phone
63.6
50.0
25.0
Source: Field study, 2008
Vulnerability Mapping
Vulnerability
Xerdzodzoekope
Mim Chemfre
Boakyekrom
Households with less
income than expenditure
(%)
27.3
25.0
16.7
Households with no
expenditure on food (%)
36.4
16.7
50.0
Households that received
remittance (%)
0.0
33.3
25.0
Proportion of household
income spent on food (%)
6.0
2.3
0.9
Households with access
to credit (%)
27.3
33.3
25.5
Source: Field study, 2008
Adaptation Strategies
Future Adaptation strategies for floods/food shortages include:
- Cultivate crops on uplands
- Cultivate off-season vegetables along rivers
- Cultivate maize during the minor season
- Cultivate vegetable right after floods
- Plant early in the season
- Store food for emergencies
- Create channels or gutters to improve drainage in farms and houses;
- Build homes on high lands
- Build block/brick houses with concrete foundation
Conclusion
. Rains were better in the past, because there is a lot of intensity in
rainfall currently. In addition the temperature has also increased.
.
Thus, Climate Change is impacting food systems in the study area:
·
Crop yields reduced due to variability in rainfall pattern
.
Rotten farm produce (Yam, Cassava, Vegetables)
·
Excessive heat is causing crops to wilt
.
Excessive heat is causing vegetables to ripe prematurely
Conclusion
·
One farming season instead of 2 seasons in the past
·
Streams and rivers drying-up
·
Snails and Mushrooms no longer in abundance due to excessive heat
·
Bush animals – Antelope, grass cutter, dear, bush rat no longer in abundance
·
Some species cocoyam, yellow yam no longer in abundance
Conclusion
- Some communities are able to cope better than others
- Household factors play a key role in determining vulnerability (see also Ziervogel
et al. 2006)
- Livelihood issues are linked to food security
- Results could be a reflection of what pertains in farming communities with
similar agro-ecological settings
Acknowledgements
•United Nations Institute for Training and Research (UNITAR) grant #CCP 07 08,
Advancing Capacity to Support Climate Change Adaptation (ACCCA) Pilot Project
on Food Security and Adaptation to Climate Change in the Afram Plains of Ghana
•The United States Agency for International Development (USAID) grant # EEM-A00-06-00014) for the Climate Change Learning Observatory Network in Ghana
(CCLONG) Project