Transcript Manish Climatic change Montereal Protocol

Global Climatic change
Montréal & Kyoto Protocol and after
Manish Kr. Semwal
GMIS, Jakarta
1988 WMO and UNEP establish the
7 April 1995 COP1 launches a new round
IPCC The UN general assembly takes up
climate change for the first time
of negotiations on a ‘protocol or another
legal instrument’
1990 IPCC’s first assessment report
11-15 Dec 1995 IPCC approves second
Second World Climate Conference
UN general assembly and convention
assessment report on science of climate
change - underlines strong action needed
Feb 1991 INCC meets for first time
19 July 1996 COP2 takes note of the
Geneva Ministerial Declaration, which acts
as further impetus to on-going negotiations
9 May 1992 UN framework convention
on climate change adopted in New York
4 June 1992 Convention opened for
signature at the Earth Summit in Rio de
Janeiro, Brazil
21 March 1994 Convention enters into
force, after receiving 50 ratifications
11 Dec 1997 COP3 adopts the Kyoto
Protocol to the UN framework
convention on climate change in Kyoto,
Japan
Kyoto Protocol
• The Kyoto Protocol is an international
agreement linked to the United Nations
Framework Convention on Climate Change. The
major feature of the Kyoto Protocol is that it sets
binding targets for 37 industrialized countries
and the European community for reducing
greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions .These
amount to an average of five per cent against
1990 levels over the five-year period 2008-2012.
Montreal Protocol
• The Montreal Protocol on Substances That Deplete
the Ozone Layer (a protocol to the Vienna Convention
for the Protection of the Ozone Layer) is an international
treaty designed to protect the ozone layer by phasing out
the production of a number of substances believed to be
responsible for ozone depletion. The treaty was opened
for signature on September 16, 1987, and entered into
force on January 1, 1989, followed by a first meeting in
Helsinki, May 1989. Since then, it has undergone seven
revisions, in 1990 (London), 1991 (Nairobi), 1992
(Copenhagen), 1993 (Bangkok), 1995 (Vienna), 1997
(Montreal), and 1999 (Beijing).
Policy and Science have Complementary
Roles in Mitigating Climate Change
Case #1: Stratospheric Ozone Depletion
and the Montreal Protocol
The Antarctic Ozone Hole continues to grow in
size – in 2000 it was larger than North America!
Simultaneously, the ozone depletion increases in severity,
reaching nearly 100% at certain altitudes in 2000.
Not only is the Ozone Hole
getting larger, but it persists
for longer times
Effects of the Montreal Protocol on
Atmospheric Cl and Br Loading
1985 – Vienna Convention
Organizes the international effort
to ban CFC’s
1987 – Montreal Protocol
Reduce CFC production to 50% of
1986 levels by 1998
1990 – London
Ban on all CFC production by
2000 Accelerated phase-out of
replacement gases
1992 – Copenhagen, 1997
Montreal, 1999 – Beijing
Halons, CCl4, CH3Br to be
eliminated by 2005
Future O3 Levels
• The threshold level for Antarctic
ozone hole formation is ~ 2 ppb Cl
• The first Antarctic ozone holes were
observed in the mid 1980’s
• Atmospheric Cl loading peaked in
~1996 at 3.3 ppb and appears to be
decreasing
• Current models indicate recovery by
~ 2050 ± 10
Lessons Learned from
the Montreal Protocol
Process
• Subsequent acceleration of the ODP
phaseouts were made based on the
continued improvement of remote
sensing data and model forecasts
•These accelerations in schedule were
crucial for avoiding even larger longterm impacts
• Action prior to 1987 (13 year delay
from initial warnings) may have averted
occurrence of the Antarctic ozone hole
The Montreal Protocol process serves as the paradigm for
effective interaction between science and policy in dealing with
global climate change issues.
Case #2: Greenhouse Gas Emissions and
the Kyoto Protocol Process
The Link Between
CO2 and Global
Warming
CO2
There is a clear correlation between
the geologic CO2 record (TOP) and
the geologic surface temperature
record (BOTTOM) over the last 1000
years.
State-of-the-art global climate models
forecast that future increases in
atmospheric CO2 levels will be linked
to corresponding increases in the
mean global surface temperature.
The question of HOW MUCH will
temperatures increase is based on
model assumptions and estimated
CO2 levels.
Temp
Recent Surface
Temperature Variations
Surface temperatures have shown
significant fluctuation over the last 1000
years.
However, the trend since 1800 has been
steadily increasing.
Temperatures rose ~ 0.6° C over the last
century with land areas heating more
than the oceans.
Note that the increases in the 1900’s
occurred abruptly. The cause of these
changes is still debated although it can
be captured reproducibly in the most
sophisticated models.
The Effects of Increasing
Surface Temperatures
Surface temperatures may increases may
be expressed in terms of the mean
(average) temperature or temperature
variance
A uniform increase in mean temperature
would cause all areas to become hotter.
Increases in the variance of surface
temperatures would lead to more extreme
weather conditions and more unstable
events (storms, ENSO, monsoons, etc)
Increasing mean and variance would lead
to warmer and more volatile global
weather patterns.
Climate Change
Scenarios
The IPCC 2001 report uses several
different scenarios as the basis for its
forecasts
The scenarios balance different drivers:
Economic vs Environmental
Global vs Regional
Different Scenarios Have Very Different Impacts
The Impacts of Atmospheric CO2 Loading
Extend Far into the Future
The timescales for recovery from atmospheric CO2 loading are 100 –
1000+ years due to the slow reaction times and large thermal inertia of
the oceans and ice caps
Modeling Surface
Temperature
Change:
Regional vs. Global
Models forecast
significantly larger effects
at high latitudes than near
the equator and larger
effects in the Northern
Hemisphere than in the
Southern Hemisphere.
Global Climate Models Capture Surface
Temperature Variations
Modeling Global
Temperature Change
Models do well capturing the past
behavior of the climate, but diverge on
their forecasts of future temperatures.
The uncertainties in these forecasts
presents the most probable range of
temperatures that one might associate
with different scenarios.
Compare the forecasted changes in
temperature for 2100 with the 0.6° C
rise in global mean surface temperature
from 1900-2000.
Indicators of Surface Temperature Change
Emissions Scenarios Are Difficult to Predict
… and Have Very Different Impacts
Uncertainty in Global
Warming
Uncertainties exist in the
forecasts for potential
global warming even for
stabilized concentrations of
greenhouse gases.
Economic Impact of Different
CO2 Stabilization Scenarios
The ultimate estimated economic impact of CO2
emissions regulation depends on the target stabilization
level chosen.
UNFCCC - ARTICLE 1: DEFINITIONS
1...."Adverse effects of climate change" means changes in the physical
environment or biota resulting from climate change which have significant
deleterious effects on the composition, resilience or productivity of natural and
managed ecosystems or on the operation of socio-economic systems or on
human health and welfare.
2...."Climate change" means a change of climate which is attributed directly
or indirectly to human activity that alters the composition of the global
atmosphere and which is in addition to natural climate variability observed
over comparable time periods.
3...."Climate system" means the totality of the atmosphere, hydrosphere,
biosphere and geosphere and their interactions.
4...."Emissions" means the release of greenhouse gases and/or their precursors
into the atmosphere over a specified area and period of time.
UNFCCC - ARTICLE 1: DEFINITIONS
5...."Greenhouse gases" means those gaseous constituents of the atmosphere,
both natural and anthropogenic, that absorb and re-emit infrared radiation.
6...."Regional economic integration organization" means an organization
constituted by sovereign States of a given region which has competence in
respect of matters governed by this Convention or its protocols and has been
duly authorized, in accordance with its internal procedures, to sign, ratify,
accept, approve or accede to the instruments concerned.
7...."Reservoir" means a component or components of the climate system
where a greenhouse gas or a precursor of a greenhouse gas is stored.
8...."Sink" means any process, activity or mechanism which removes a
greenhouse gas, an aerosol or a precursor of a greenhouse gas from the
atmosphere.
9...."Source" means any process or activity which releases a greenhouse gas,
an aerosol or a precursor of a greenhouse gas into the atmosphere.
UNFCCC
ARTICLE 2: OBJECTIVE
The ultimate objective of this Convention and any related legal
instruments that the Conference of the Parties may adopt is to
achieve, in accordance with the relevant provisions of the
Convention, stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in
the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous
anthropogenic interference with the climate system. Such a level
should be achieved within a time-frame sufficient to allow
ecosystems to adapt naturally to climate change, to ensure that
food production is not threatened and to enable economic
development to proceed in a sustainable manner.
The Greenhouse Effect
CO2 Emissions from Fossil Fuel Burning
CO2 Emissions from Land Use Change
Historical and Projected Global Population
& Energy Consumption
Changes in Global Energy Consumption by
Region
Energy consumption in Asia
and Latin America is
projected to more than
double in the next 20 years!
Energy consumption in
Africa and the Middle East
should not lag far behind
Even technologically
advanced nations are
expected to increase energy
consumption by up to 40%
in the next 2 decades
Global CO2 Emissions
Projections suggest rapid rise in CO2
emissions from Developing Nations,
surpassing the emissions from
Developed Nations by 2020.
CO2 emissions from oil are projected to
dominate the anthropogenic
contributions over the next 20 years
Global Energy
Consumption by Region
Industrialized Nations: Energy
consumption will continue to
rise over the next 20 years
Developing Nations: Nearly
exponential growth in energy
consumption over next 20
years
Developing and Industrialized
nations projected to have
similar energy consumption by
~ 2020
EE = Eastern Europe
FSU = Former Soviet Union
US Oil Consumption
Alternatives
Bibliography
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http://images.google.co.id/images?hl=en&um=1&q=kyoto+protocol+in+newspaper&sa=
N&start=84&ndsp=21
http://images.google.co.id/images?hl=en&um=1&q=newspaper+cutting+about+montreal
+protocol+in+newspapers&sa=N&start=63&ndsp=21
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Montreal_Protocol
www.authorstream.com/.../miloung-57217-kyoto-protocol-UN-Framework-ConventionClimate-Change-Travel-Places-Nature
homepages.see.leeds.ac.uk
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www.web.net/~robrien/papers/kyotoppt/index.htm
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Thank You
Manish Kr. Semwal