Transcript Presentation 3 - Institute for Environmental Security

Sustainable Forestry Management
Climate and forests: the
case for action now
Ian Swingland
[email protected]
November 2006
SUSTAINABLE FORESTRY MANAGEMENT
Tropical Deforestation = 16% of Global CO2 Emissions
Global GHG Emissions
Land Use Change Emissions
90% of Land use change
emissions in the tropics,
primarily deforestation
Climate and Forests : the case for action now
Sources: Stern Report - The Economics of Climate Change;
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change: Land Use,
Land-Use Change, and Forestry: 2000
Who is Going to Pay ?
Tropical forest value cleared to pasture: $200-500 per hectare
Tropical forest value left for carbon storage:$4,000-10,000 per
hectare (@$20 per MTCO2)
Annual Rate of Destruction: 12 million hectares
Annual Required Payment (min. $4,000/hectare): $48 billion
Total OECD Annual ODA: $80 billion
Avg. Annual GEF (Biodiversity + Climate Change):$800million
Climate and Forests : the case for action now
Source: At Loggerheads? Agricultural Expansion, Poverty Reduction and
Environment in the Tropical Forests. The World Bank, October 2006
Flood the Market? Not Likely.
Est. Global Carbon Market 2006:
1362 MtCO2 /yr
Afforestation & Reforestation 2008-2012
1% Cap on A/R under CDM:
Actual A/R Potential (Low Case):
(High Case):
Avoided Deforestation
Theoretical Upper Bound:
Realistic Target (1% reduction):
Climate and Forests : the case for action now
120 MtCO2 /yr (8.0%)
7.3 MtCO2 /yr (.053%)
14.2 MtCO2 /yr (1.04%)
3 billion MtCO2 /yr
30MtCO2 /yr (2.2%)
Source: UNFCCC: The Role of Forestry Sinks in the CDM - Analysing the
Effects of Policy Decisions on the Carbon Market, Hamburg
Institute of International Economics, 2003
Perverse Incentives
Cause:
• JI – Forest sinks “count” in Annex 1 countries
• CDM – Arbitrary restraints on A/R, high regulatory costs
• A/R banned from EU trading system
• No credits for avoided deforestation
Result:
• Conserve temperate forests
• Destroy tropical forests
Climate and Forests : the case for action now
What Must be Done
• Require deeper, faster cuts in global emissions
• Admit Avoided Deforestation credits to the Kyoto Market.
• Reform CDM to encourage reforestation and afforestation.
• Repeal the EU ban on CDM afforestation & reforestation
credits.
• Admit credits for Avoided Deforestation to EU carbon
market.
Climate and Forests : the case for action now
SFM: What we are doing to help
Building Value from Emerging Environmental Markets
Multilaterals, States,
NGOs,
Communities
SFM
&
International/Regional
Partners
Land Ownership
Land Use-Rights
Timber & Agroforestry
Products
Renewable Energy
• Biomass
• Biodiesel
Climate and Forests : the case for action now
Environmental Use Rights
• CO2 sequestration
• Riparian
• Bioprospecting
Redevelopment,
Infrastructure
& Leasing